A question about system play

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
QFIT said:
You just called yourself pompous and arrogant.
No, I'm not demanding that anyone play my way. I'm reporting exactly what happened to me and offering an alternative so that hopefully newbies won't throw their money away on big bet spreads like I did.
 

QFIT

Well-Known Member
21gunsalute said:
No, I'm not demanding that anyone play my way. I'm reporting exactly what happened to me and offering an alternative so that hopefully newbies won't throw their money away on big bet spreads like I did.
Sorry, when did I or anyone else here demand anyone play in any manner? How are we doing anything that you aren't? We and you are advising people how to play. The only difference is that we are using math and you are using empirical evidence based on a tiny sample.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
iCountNTrack said:
I find this statement to be pretty laughable, i dont even think QFIT has the time to play.
In any case, i find it arrogant from YOUR END to give advice to people based on the very little statistically insignificant number of hands you have played.
Once again for shoe games if you are playing all, you would need the biggest bet spread that you can get away with.
If you are worried about your bankroll there are TWO ways to reduce your ROR:
A) Find a better game (better rules, penetration)
B) Decrease the size of your base unit, you would still need to use a large spread.

One last thing, when you run a billion hand simulation you are just looking for an accurate answer i.e the average value of one hand.
Compared to the sims we've all played a statistically insignificant number of hands. And we've all had different results. Some win big, some win a little, some lose a little, some lose a lot and some lose everything. So what good are the sims? Little to no good at all IMO. One individuals results are not very likely to track that closely to a billion hand sim.

The games are all about the same around here. Little to no difference at all. My base unit is already at the minimum so it cannot be reduced. I usually do quite well when the count is low or negative and lose a high % of hands when the count gets high, at least that is what happened during my 13 session losing streak. But I kept throwing my maximum bets out there when the count called for it because I knew it had to turn around...but it never did. Sims don't tell you about that aspect of it. I'm just sorry I didn't adjust sooner.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
QFIT said:
Sorry, when did I or anyone else here demand anyone play in any manner? How are we doing anything that you aren't? We and you are advising people how to play. The only difference is that we are using math and you are using empirical evidence based on a tiny sample.
Because you're attempting to belittle and undermine my advice which is based on real life experience, not on computer generated sims. And I don't think it's right or fair to tell people that the only way they can win is to throw large amounts of money out there when the count is in "their favor", when such an individual is virtually no more likely to win the hand than when the count is low or negative. They need to hear that they can play it "by the book" and still lose big time and they also need to hear that they can play a bit more conservatively than "the book" dictates and do quite well.
 

QFIT

Well-Known Member
21gunsalute said:
Because you're attempting to belittle and undermine my advice which is based on real life experience, not on computer generated sims. And I don't think it's right or fair to tell people that the only way they can win is to throw large amounts of money out there when the count is in "their favor", when such an individual is virtually no more likely to win the hand than when the count is low or negative. They need to hear that they can play it "by the book" and still lose big time and they also need to hear that they can play a bit more conservatively than "the book" dictates and do quite well.
You just belittled and undermined our advice. And the advice in the respected books. Again, why do you think that you can give advice, but throw words like arrogant, pompous at others that do the same?
 

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
21gunsalute said:
Because you're attempting to belittle and undermine my advice which is based on real life experience, not on computer generated sims. And I don't think it's right or fair to tell people that the only way they can win is to throw large amounts of money out there when the count is in "their favor", when such an individual is virtually no more likely to win the hand than when the count is low or negative. They need to hear that they can play it "by the book" and still lose big time and they also need to hear that they can play a bit more conservatively than "the book" dictates and do quite well.
21gun,

If you have the bankroll to handle the spread correctly, you can (for the most part) basically assure yourself you won't go broke.

If you go broke, you overbet your bankroll. Reducing your spread and increasing your ROR will make you just as broke, but with less fluctuations. 13 sessions are insignificant. I know it's your money, but honestly it's insignificant.

You're right though, we won't play a billion hands. But the more hands we do play the closer we'll be to reflecting the results of the simulations. Don't let a few losing sessions dissuade you. Build up your bankroll and find your optimal betting ramp. There are plenty of players here who will be willing to help you out. QFIT is attempting to help you save your money.
 

iCountNTrack

Well-Known Member
Deathclutch said:
But the more hands we do play the closer we'll be to reflecting the results of the simulations..
Just a minor correction DC, the expectation value of one hand is the same whether you play one hand or 1 billion hands, the purpose of running the 2 billion rounds sim is to get an accurate number for that expectation value.
i guess what you are trying to say that the the more rounds we play, we get to a point where accumulated expectations exceeds accumulated standard deviations. I think this is the problem 21Gun is having problem understanding.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
21gunsalute said:
Compared to the sims we've all played a statistically insignificant number of hands.
Not me. I've surpassed my N0 several times over. Some players reach statistical significance several times each year. Why would anyone bother using AP strategies if they weren't expecting to have a reasonable chance of achieving a profit?

You need to learn a lot more about this game before you start offering advice. Your comments are incorrect and detrimental to newbies. Playing with a smaller spread means having less of an advantage, less protif, more risk and less of a chance of being a winner over time.

Does anyone else think this discussion sounds a bit too familiar?

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=97794

-Sonny-
 

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
iCountNTrack said:
Just a minor correction DC, the expectation value of one hand is the same whether you play one hand or 1 billion hands, the purpose of running the 2 billion rounds sim is to get an accurate number for that expectation value.
i guess what you are trying to say that the the more rounds we play, we get to a point where accumulated expectations exceeds accumulated standard deviations. I think this is the problem 21Gun is having problem understanding.
Thanks Professor, you stated what I was trying to say the correct way. After reading what I put and what it actually means I was a little off in my understanding, but the end result is what I meant.
 
I know this is an older thread. As a teacher of mathematics, and avid bj player, I thought I might be able to add something.

In the short run, a player's advantage or disadvantange really does not mean a lot. A player using basic strategy and a progression may indeed do quite well. How long could this last? Unknown, no way to answer--- as it relates to any 1 single player. Maybe a few sessions, maybe 100 sessions. Of course, it is more likely every time you play that your fortunes will reverse, but that does not mean that a single player could not accumulate a handsome sum before that reversal occurs. This happens all the time.

Likewise, a counter playing with an advantage could well get his teeth kicked in for a protracted period. The count soars, you push out big bet after big bet, only to suffer loss after loss. Short term variance does not seem that short term when you are down 30 big bets. Just because you have a mathematical advantage does not mean that you will win on any given hand, or any given 50 hands.

New players, take warning. Some counters start playing and have tremendous results after the first 100 hours of play. Positive variance puts them way ahead of the curve and the money is rolling in. However, some counters can start play and experience negative variance...and get their clock cleaned.

In the end, take blackjack for what it is---a gamble. Yes, if you are a proficeint counter you can gamble with a small advantage. However, to be certain that you turn that small advantage into profits is not easy. It usually takes a large time commitment...many, many hours of play. Only those with time, skill, patience, and a well funded bankroll can play with the knowledge that their efforts have a high probability of rewarding them with profits.

Kindest regards to all,
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
adventureboy said:
I know this is an older thread. As a teacher of mathematics, and avid bj player, I thought I might be able to add something.

In the short run, a player's advantage or disadvantange really does not mean a lot. A player using basic strategy and a progression may indeed do quite well. How long could this last? Unknown, no way to answer--- as it relates to any 1 single player. Maybe a few sessions, maybe 100 sessions. Of course, it is more likely every time you play that your fortunes will reverse, but that does not mean that a single player could not accumulate a handsome sum before that reversal occurs. This happens all the time.

Likewise, a counter playing with an advantage could well get his teeth kicked in for a protracted period. The count soars, you push out big bet after big bet, only to suffer loss after loss. Short term variance does not seem that short term when you are down 30 big bets. Just because you have a mathematical advantage does not mean that you will win on any given hand, or any given 50 hands.

New players, take warning. Some counters start playing and have tremendous results after the first 100 hours of play. Positive variance puts them way ahead of the curve and the money is rolling in. However, some counters can start play and experience negative variance...and get their clock cleaned.

In the end, take blackjack for what it is---a gamble. Yes, if you are a proficeint counter you can gamble with a small advantage. However, to be certain that you turn that small advantage into profits is not easy. It usually takes a large time commitment...many, many hours of play. Only those with time, skill, patience, and a well funded bankroll can play with the knowledge that their efforts have a high probability of rewarding them with profits.

Kindest regards to all,
Completely agreed. In my first 100 hours of counting cards, i was down 250 units. Actually, in retrospect, I think it was good for me because it helped me learn about variance and gave me more resolve to study the game. Things have since turned around for the better :)
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Quote:
Originally Posted by adventureboy View Post
I know this is an older thread. As a teacher of mathematics, and avid bj player, I thought I might be able to add something.

In the short run, a player's advantage or disadvantange really does not mean a lot. A player using basic strategy and a progression may indeed do quite well. How long could this last? Unknown, no way to answer--- as it relates to any 1 single player. Maybe a few sessions, maybe 100 sessions. Of course, it is more likely every time you play that your fortunes will reverse, but that does not mean that a single player could not accumulate a handsome sum before that reversal occurs. This happens all the time.

Likewise, a counter playing with an advantage could well get his teeth kicked in for a protracted period. The count soars, you push out big bet after big bet, only to suffer loss after loss. Short term variance does not seem that short term when you are down 30 big bets. Just because you have a mathematical advantage does not mean that you will win on any given hand, or any given 50 hands.

New players, take warning. Some counters start playing and have tremendous results after the first 100 hours of play. Positive variance puts them way ahead of the curve and the money is rolling in. However, some counters can start play and experience negative variance...and get their clock cleaned.

In the end, take blackjack for what it is---a gamble. Yes, if you are a proficeint counter you can gamble with a small advantage. However, to be certain that you turn that small advantage into profits is not easy. It usually takes a large time commitment...many, many hours of play. Only those with time, skill, patience, and a well funded bankroll can play with the knowledge that their efforts have a high probability of rewarding them with profits.

Kindest regards to all,
SleightOfHand said:
Completely agreed. In my first 100 hours of counting cards, i was down 250 units. Actually, in retrospect, I think it was good for me because it helped me learn about variance and gave me more resolve to study the game. Things have since turned around for the better :)
yeah, in light of this discussion this seems like an interesting post:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/Stats/advant.htm (Archive copy)
an old post of Abdul Jalib
.....
.. especially the idea of not just keeping in mind the advantage but the fluctuation as well, sort of stuff.
 
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