AAAAAHHHHH!!!!!!!
- Thread starter suicyco maniac
- Start date
since the essence of this card counting idea is..
math, then one must use that math as the rudder. deviations from math must not be based on streaks up or down. bet changes *might* deviate from strict math as an amendment to the act only. rounding is a given.
adjustments to one's wagers based on some "kelley" number in one session aren't important since that session *should* be too short. adjustment to the unit size best be done between sessions, though there are other considerations to any significant changes to one's m.o. as viewed by surveillance. i'll use a consistent bet size based on the joint's radar and my "usual" play there. my concern as an lv "local" is that i be allowed to play repeatedly. tortoise/hare.
math, then one must use that math as the rudder. deviations from math must not be based on streaks up or down. bet changes *might* deviate from strict math as an amendment to the act only. rounding is a given.
adjustments to one's wagers based on some "kelley" number in one session aren't important since that session *should* be too short. adjustment to the unit size best be done between sessions, though there are other considerations to any significant changes to one's m.o. as viewed by surveillance. i'll use a consistent bet size based on the joint's radar and my "usual" play there. my concern as an lv "local" is that i be allowed to play repeatedly. tortoise/hare.
BlackJackHack
Well-Known Member
Keeping losses to a minimum
A losing streak does not necessarily mean that the player is doing anything wrong. You can play the best game in the country, perfectly count with a zillion indices, and still get your ass whooped.
A losing streak does not necessarily mean that the player is doing anything wrong. You can play the best game in the country, perfectly count with a zillion indices, and still get your ass whooped.
oh, woops, I see what I did
Oh, the casino employee line. That wasn't directed toward you at all. You know english is not my first language, math is. That is what I always say. Even though I wasn't the best in math, I was probably the worst in english so I had to stick something, right ?
I'm reading some poker books now. I don't think I can read anymore on blackjack. It just isn't interesting me anymore. I'll play it, though. Reading a book on internet poker. I know what I said 4 months ago but can't a guy change his mind. Later.......
When they tell you that you are no longer allowed to play there, laugh at them.
Oh, the casino employee line. That wasn't directed toward you at all. You know english is not my first language, math is. That is what I always say. Even though I wasn't the best in math, I was probably the worst in english so I had to stick something, right ?
I'm reading some poker books now. I don't think I can read anymore on blackjack. It just isn't interesting me anymore. I'll play it, though. Reading a book on internet poker. I know what I said 4 months ago but can't a guy change his mind. Later.......
When they tell you that you are no longer allowed to play there, laugh at them.
losing streaks
I think everybody here knows that just because we're losing does not mean something is wrong. If we never lost we would all be millionaires. I'm not sure where or why you assume that I said or implied if something's wrong if we're losing. It's all a matter of control and patience more so than saying something's wrong.
I think everybody here knows that just because we're losing does not mean something is wrong. If we never lost we would all be millionaires. I'm not sure where or why you assume that I said or implied if something's wrong if we're losing. It's all a matter of control and patience more so than saying something's wrong.
Trip bankroll
My adjustments are based on "trip bankroll" bankroll,not based on one mere short session. It might be a good idea to bet conservatively when one loses half the trip bank. I'm not saying cut bets in half and so forth,but tighten up a bit and be patient. In other words if the TC is in between 4 and 5 round down, (instead of up)and dont get too trigger happy,just be patient. Seems to work fine for me. Shooting my guns too fast used to get me in trouble.I'm no longer the agressive type as I used to be. My bankroll has been consistently climbing for 6 years using this patient attack tactic.
My adjustments are based on "trip bankroll" bankroll,not based on one mere short session. It might be a good idea to bet conservatively when one loses half the trip bank. I'm not saying cut bets in half and so forth,but tighten up a bit and be patient. In other words if the TC is in between 4 and 5 round down, (instead of up)and dont get too trigger happy,just be patient. Seems to work fine for me. Shooting my guns too fast used to get me in trouble.I'm no longer the agressive type as I used to be. My bankroll has been consistently climbing for 6 years using this patient attack tactic.
suicyco maniac
Well-Known Member
Thanx Syph...
Believe me I have been giving them hell for quite some time now is just time for me to finally pay my dues...it is just starting to wear a little thin in the last week or so and finally getting to me. SM
Believe me I have been giving them hell for quite some time now is just time for me to finally pay my dues...it is just starting to wear a little thin in the last week or so and finally getting to me. SM
Automatic Monkey
Banned
You can say that again!
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Maybe add some new weapons?
I've found that adding a shuffle track to my counting has helped a lot. It's one way in which you can manufacture your own good luck. Now that I have my counting system down pretty solidly, all of my studies are now devoted to shuffle tracking and Ace sequencing. I'm very new to advantage play but I've figured out that although counting alone can take you far, it can only take you so far, and it can never take you far enough away from this frightening variance.
I've found that adding a shuffle track to my counting has helped a lot. It's one way in which you can manufacture your own good luck. Now that I have my counting system down pretty solidly, all of my studies are now devoted to shuffle tracking and Ace sequencing. I'm very new to advantage play but I've figured out that although counting alone can take you far, it can only take you so far, and it can never take you far enough away from this frightening variance.
suicyco maniac
Well-Known Member
AM
I have a few weapons in my arsenal but I would rather keep them quiet..The truth is the better the game the more you bet the more you can lose...SM
I have a few weapons in my arsenal but I would rather keep them quiet..The truth is the better the game the more you bet the more you can lose...SM
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Ah there's a problem
If you bet significantly more on a game you perceive as good that is contributing to the problem. In our minds a 2% edge is twice as good as a 1% but in reality it's only 1% better. A better game requires a lower bet not higher; that's why shoe play calls for huge spreads and SD can be easily beaten with 1:4. This may be helpful to you, play better games, more Wonging, more use of your other tools, and this will allow you to make the same amount of money with lower bets.
If you bet significantly more on a game you perceive as good that is contributing to the problem. In our minds a 2% edge is twice as good as a 1% but in reality it's only 1% better. A better game requires a lower bet not higher; that's why shoe play calls for huge spreads and SD can be easily beaten with 1:4. This may be helpful to you, play better games, more Wonging, more use of your other tools, and this will allow you to make the same amount of money with lower bets.
I disagree
>A better game requires a lower bet not higher
Nope... the higher your edge, the higher your bet. Otherwise, you are not playing Kelley, and your bankroll will not grow optimally.
A better game will lead to more variance, but those are the breaks. We should not lower our bet to avoid variance, we should be grateful for the variance, it means we are playing the game correctly.
--Mayor
>A better game requires a lower bet not higher
Nope... the higher your edge, the higher your bet. Otherwise, you are not playing Kelley, and your bankroll will not grow optimally.
A better game will lead to more variance, but those are the breaks. We should not lower our bet to avoid variance, we should be grateful for the variance, it means we are playing the game correctly.
--Mayor
Automatic Monkey
Banned
True, but...
With a given bankroll, you could go from a Kelly bet on a shoe game to half- or quarter- Kelly bet on a good SD game and have the same win rate. Wouldn't a player who is sensitive to these long losing streaks be better off that way?
With a given bankroll, you could go from a Kelly bet on a shoe game to half- or quarter- Kelly bet on a good SD game and have the same win rate. Wouldn't a player who is sensitive to these long losing streaks be better off that way?
suicyco maniac
Well-Known Member
lower spread.....
yes but a lower bet no....our bets are sized in relation to our edge to bet in any other manner is not optimal....BTW my concern is not the money it is just the cards I have been getting are way out of whack with what they should be..I dont want to go into details but I am sure Eliot will back up my statements...SM
yes but a lower bet no....our bets are sized in relation to our edge to bet in any other manner is not optimal....BTW my concern is not the money it is just the cards I have been getting are way out of whack with what they should be..I dont want to go into details but I am sure Eliot will back up my statements...SM
Common misconception
Not always a good idea to spread to 2 boxes when you have the advantage (unless you are confident that this round is the last before the cutting card). It means you get in less rounds in positive situations. Can be better to spread down from 2 boxes (card eating effect) to 1 with a quite large bet.
From a surveillence point of view, just stick to 1 box or 2 boxes the whole time and don't try to get clever.
I'm sure all methods get some of the money, but it is fairly innacurate to say "spread to more boxes the greater the advantage you have".
Not always a good idea to spread to 2 boxes when you have the advantage (unless you are confident that this round is the last before the cutting card). It means you get in less rounds in positive situations. Can be better to spread down from 2 boxes (card eating effect) to 1 with a quite large bet.
From a surveillence point of view, just stick to 1 box or 2 boxes the whole time and don't try to get clever.
I'm sure all methods get some of the money, but it is fairly innacurate to say "spread to more boxes the greater the advantage you have".
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Not quite
The biggest effect of spreading to two or three hands is reducing the effects of variance. While you do eat cards quicker it's not that significant on a crowded table, which is usually all you ever get to play on here in the East. True- more hands= fewer rounds= lower EV, but more hands= lower SD per round= higher max bet within Kelly= higher win rate.
The other advantage is it makes big spreads a little less obvious. Especially if you are playing behind one of your neighbors.
The biggest effect of spreading to two or three hands is reducing the effects of variance. While you do eat cards quicker it's not that significant on a crowded table, which is usually all you ever get to play on here in the East. True- more hands= fewer rounds= lower EV, but more hands= lower SD per round= higher max bet within Kelly= higher win rate.
The other advantage is it makes big spreads a little less obvious. Especially if you are playing behind one of your neighbors.