advice.

[matteotm]

hi guys,

im heading down for a holiday in december and the casino there is differnt from my home town in that .. mine uses CSM's.

however this casino.. dosent which opens up the possibility of card counting.
however they have recently put a new rule in which is "dealer hits soft 17"

these are the conditions:

6 decks, H17, D9, DAS, No Surrender, No Peek

just wondering.. im going to be there for 5 days and plan on a bankroll of $1500 now the min unit table is $30 there. also

just wondering advice on how to tackle this.

i know perfect BS but only very limited knowledge of card counting..

it is worth trying to learn in 3 weeks.. and also.. will that rule regarding soft 17 swing the game back into the houses advantage?

 

[moo321]

The house pretty much always has an advantage at blackjack, although hitting soft 17 makes it worse. Card-counting can overcome this, but you probably don't have enough money to play that game. Back-counting will be the only safe way for you to play this game, if you have to bet $30 min.

Back-counting is when you stand behind the table and count the cards, and start playing when you get a positive count. You'll probably want to wait for a true count (not running count) of +3 or so, and then bet the table minimum. Even then, you won't expect to win much.

I recommend you take some more time to really learn how to count, get some more money together, and find a casino with a lower minimum bet. You can take a shot at that game, but I wouldn't.

 

[shadroch]

D9 meaning double only on 9? That and no peek will eat you alive if you lose your doubles and splits to a dealer BJ.

 

[ihate17]

D9 and no peek

D9 meaning double only on 9? That and no peek will eat you alive if you lose your doubles and splits to a dealer BJ.

Double 9, is generally meant as double 9,10 or 11 in the U.S. but his casino is probably not in the U.S.

The basic strategy for a no peek game where the dealer's blackjacks take all doubles and splits is very different obviously from the usual basic strategy. You will split and double much less, reducing the positive effect of those rules.

It is a bad game but the poster did not mention the penetration and if there is mid shoe entry. This is a game most of us will not play but if the pen is great it would be good enough to aggressively wong in my opinion.

ihate17

 

[Kasi]

D9 meaning double only on 9? That and no peek will eat you alive if you lose your doubles and splits to a dealer BJ.

Probably means double on 9,10, or 11. Sounds like a horrible game regardless.

If you do choose to play it matteotm, the basic strategy you know will probabaly change because of the rule changes.

I'd guess learning to count in 3 weeks would be useless and if you did your bankroll wouldn't support almost any kind of play. Just guesing here.

And a 50 unit bankroll has a real good chance of being gone in just 500 hands flat-betting and playing BS.

Just so you know what to maybe expect.

 

[matteotm]

hi guys,

thanks for the input so far..

just to clarifity a few things

the casino in question is Crown Casino in Melbourne Australia.

it does allow mid shoe entry (back counting)

and u can double 9,10,11..

the "no peek"..... is the dealer dosent check for blackjack however if they get blackjack you only lose your original bet

probably every1 is right as far as bad game goes

the only reason behind the $1500 is that its just a holiday with a few mates down there.. and i might be heading there to play... i dont want to get too involved as i want to relax on the holiday .... i though 50 units wasnt TOO bad... ??????

can any1 reccomend another amount for the BR and reasons why

 

[ihate17]

triproll vs bankroll

Matteotm

I think when one says bankroll, many of us will take it as the amount you will risk on blackjack and then, if lost, you are done.
Triproll is the amount you take on a trip and if that is lost, you are done but only for that trip.
Then there is the replentishable bankroll. You have X amount but can add a certain amount to it each month.

So as a triproll and not a bankroll, your 50 units is still small. If you count, you might be putting 12 units out on one bet, then you might want to split on the hand you have, so 24 units are out there. Say you have a double opportunity on each of those hands, now you have 48 units of a 50 unit bank out one deal (I just had a 4X max bet situation this past Sunday, except nothing happened as I won and lost 2 bets to push). If it is your first hand of the trip and you lose all, it then becomes a very bad trip with too much time left.
Now if you are flat betting, unless you really hit some bad variance, you should be alright.

ihate17

ihate17

 

[Kasi]

Now if you are flat betting, unless you really hit some bad variance, you should be alright.

Well if u call a 1 in 3 chance of losing bankroll in 500 hands or over a 50% of losing the bankroll in 1000 hands, bad variance, I agree with you.

Except that's not bad variance, that's expected.

Mildly bad variance is losing it all in 200 hands.

That's what I come up with anyway.

Edit Whoops - I was using a 30 unit roll in the above. So ignore it. Apologies.

A 50 unit roll might be more like 1 in 4 of losing it in 1000 hands going up to 40% at 1500 hands and 50% at 2000 hands.

So, play at full tables to slow things down lol.

The good news is you also have a pretty good chance, maybe 40% or so, of not losing any money over 1000 hands.

 

[mdlbj]

Play a comp game. Put together a strategy chart for the rules, look at the hourly loss and ask for compensation for your action. Dont be shy mate.

 

[Kasi]

can any1 reccomend another amount for the BR and reasons why

Well if you tell me how many hands you think will be playing I can tell you how likely you are to lose it, to break even, or to win x number of units given how many betting units you will be taking assuming you flat-bet every hand.

Like taking $2000 instead of $1500 would reduce the chances of losing it all to like 10% instead of 25% in 1000 hands.

But your chances of not losing money would be more or less the same.

Win a net extra 1 unit every 3 hours, by varying your bet any way you want, you could play forever without losing money if that's of any interest to you.

In other words, at 60 hands an hour, flat-betting with perfect BS, don't forget to look it up because it's not the one you know, expect to lose about $13.50 an hour.

To even think about card-counting is silly - almost no system I could think of would support a $30 min bet with a 50 unit roll. And the ones that might I don't think you want to play.

As always, my best advice is drink 3 free beers an hour and call it even lol.

But, please, still tip the waitress lol.

 

[moo321]

Well if you tell me how many hands you think will be playing I can tell you how likely you are to lose it, to break even, or to win x number of units given how many betting units you will be taking assuming you flat-bet every hand.

Like taking $2000 instead of $1500 would reduce the chances of losing it all to like 10% instead of 25% in 1000 hands.

But your chances of not losing money would be more or less the same.

Win a net extra 1 unit every 3 hours, by varying your bet any way you want, you could play forever without losing money if that's of any interest to you.

In other words, at 60 hands an hour, flat-betting with perfect BS, don't forget to look it up because it's not the one you know, expect to lose about $13.50 an hour.

To even think about card-counting is silly - almost no system I could think of would support a $30 min bet with a 50 unit roll. And the ones that might I don't think you want to play.

As always, my best advice is drink 3 free beers an hour and call it even lol.

But, please, still tip the waitress lol.

Actually, back-counting and waiting till +3 TC and flat-betting one unit isn't so bad for a 50 unit bankroll. Not gonna win a lot, but the ROR is good.

 

[Kasi]

Actually, back-counting and waiting till +3 TC and flat-betting one unit isn't so bad for a 50 unit bankroll. Not gonna win a lot, but the ROR is good.

Possibly but not sure even that would support a min $30 bet with a $1500 roll.

Maybe just barely, at full Kelly, is my guess. At less than full Kelly, I can't see it at all (I think lol). But that is what I was thinking of. Except maybe even at TC +4 given such a crappy game.

What would be your suggested flat-bet wonging in at TC+3 in this game? And at what ROR?

And, in either case, I just couldn't see him learning enuf card-counting in 3 weeks to make it worthwhile. Let alone envisioning him being happy playing 10 minutes out of every hour.

Although, I think I think the winnings would maybe be more than I think you think they'd be lol. What do you think they'd be?

Maybe you have a sim lol. Obviously I'm just guessing pretty much here.