Always assume a 10 in the hole

VanEck

VanEck

Member
Three nights ago, I was playing at a table with three other Asian dudes who were from out of town, and very new to Blackjack. The fellow next to me kept asking his friends for advice on EVERY move he was to make, and was also asking the dealer. He asked me once, but I politely told him I wasn't good enough to offer advice, as I didn't want to be responsible for this guys money.

The dealer was being very patient and helpful for the most part... but then he said something that I definitely disagreed with. He told him that he should always assume he has a Ten in the hole, and hit or stand according to that, because there are "more 10's in the deck than any other card".

Not wanting to argue with the dealer or make myself stand out at all, I bit my tongue and kept quiet... but inside I knew this to be complete BS, and I am pretty far from a "pro" player. A little basic math instantly slaps this theory down. There are definitely more "other" cards than ten cards. Cards valued at "Ten" are in the hole only 30% of the time right?
 
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Canceler

Well-Known Member
Almost a paradox...

VanEck said:
There are definitely more "other" cards than ten cards. Cards valued at "Ten" are in the hole only 30% of the time right?
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Close enough.

The dealer’s hole card is more likely to be a T than any other type of card, but it’s still not likely to be a T. :)
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
You know, as idiotic as this line is -- if a guy is totally clueless and is bugging everyone on what to do, it may be the best advice you can give him. Even though it is famously incorrect.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
QFIT said:
You know, as idiotic as this line is -- if a guy is totally clueless and is bugging everyone on what to do, it may be the best advice you can give him. Even though it is famously incorrect.
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If you assume there is a ten in the hole you will be playing right most of the time. I think it's definitely better than "going with your gut". I think it's the best ploppy strategy.
 
SleightOfHand

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
Wizard Of Odds said:
Assume a ten in the hole: For this strategy I first figured out the optimal basic strategy under this assumption. If the dealer had an ace up, then I reverted to proper basic strategy, because the dealer would have peeked for blackjack, making a 10 impossible. This "assume a ten" strategy results in a house edge of 10.03%.
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The average BJ ploppy plays at a 1-3% HE.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
Approx. one in three cards is a ten. If the dealer is showing a six or less, he will have to take a third card in a H17 game, so playing as if one of the dealers next two cards will be a ten will have you playing pretty close to BS.
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
VanEck said:
Not wanting to argue with the dealer or make myself stand out at all, I bit my tongue and kept quiet... but inside I knew this to be complete BS, and I am pretty far from a "pro" player. A little basic math instantly slaps this theory down. There are definitely more "other" cards than ten cards. Cards valued at "Ten" are in the hole only 30% of the time right?
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This isn't complete BS. If you assume dealer's down card is a 10 value, making all 5 and 6's into 15 and 16's and all 8's and 9's into 18 and 19 and then play your hand accordingly. Trying to beat dealer pat hands and not break on dealer stiffs, you will be making 90% of the correct basic strategy hit/stand decisions. (12 vs 2 and 3 being exception) Of course there is more to basic strategy that hit/stand decisions, like doubling and splitting, but it's a start for someone that doesn't know basic strat and not horrible advice.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
there are "more 10's in the deck than any other card".

There are definitely more "other" cards than ten cards.



Both of these statements are true, but one has nothing to do with the other.
The dealer is stating that the most popular card value is a ten. Thats true.
You are stating that there are more cards that are non-ten valued cards in the deck than ten valued cards. Thats also true.
Theres a big difference between what he said and what you are saying.
 
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Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
I lot of people will modify the play if the dealer has a 10 underneath to only hit to you get to hard 17. If you have a hard 18 and the dealer is showing a 10 you don't hit thinking the dealer has 20. If you hit untill you get 17 when the dealer shows 7-Ace and stay against a 6 or lower that is almost basic stragedy.
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
one more variation:

if the count is negative, tell him that he should hit because there won't be a 10 in the hole.

if the count is positive, tell him he should stand because there is a 10 in the hole.
 
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