Another crazy idea

[justme]

First of all, sorry for so many questions in the last couple of days. I'm new to BJ so naturally it's very exciting time for me
Secondly, please do not consider it as an attempt to convince anyone in anything. I'm simply thinking about some new ideas and ask you guys questions cause obviously you are much more experienced than I am and hope you will easily prove me wrong. Meanwhile, we can have a nice chat

Simple system based on the following assumptions:

1.When you play progression you have a better chance to win than to lose. Let's say you play $10 $20. You have a very good chance of winning 10$. The problem is that when you lose you don't lose $10. You lose $30. Given the house has advantage you might get lucky for quite a while but will lose in the long run.

2. Money management is important regardless of how you play. You count cards. Today you up $1000. Your average winnings for the same amount of time is $500. Perhaps, you should leave cause even card counters have bad sessions. Leave, rest, enjoy your winnings. Tomorrow is another day.

3. Game fluctuates most of the time. What I have noticed from playing more than a month almost each day. You start with modest $200 buy-in and play $10 $20 progression. On most occasions you will go up and down somewhere in between $60 and $100. Some days of course you will have big loosing or winning streaks right away. But not often.

4. Reverse gambler's fallacy is also valid. You winning 5 hands in a row doesn't mean you will lose 6th. You have pretty much the same chance as always of doing so.

So here's the idea how to change advantage in your favor.

1.You set stop-losses and take profits. Let's say $200 either you win or lose in one session.

2. You start playing progression and wait till it fluctuates in your favor. in my short experience chances that you will immediately catch a bad streak are slim. 1-2 times out of ten maybe.

3. As soon as you up $10 dollars odds of you reaching $200 slightly increase in your favor. How? Well, for starters, you need to win $190 not $200. And even more good news. You can increase you bet virtually for free. So after being $10 up your progression changes. You play $10 $30 now. after you $30 up you play 3 steps progression and increase the last step bet with each winning (10 20 30; 10 20 40 and so on). What you achieve is that your max bet with your money is $20. All big bets are your winnings. Now let's say you lost your big bet and now you even again. What are the chances that it will fluctuates in your favor again? Well, the same as when you started playing.

So, what do you guys think..

 

[shadroch]

Do you honestly believe you have come up with a formula for success in casinos that the best and brightest minds in the world somehow missed?
I'm fairly sure you have not.

 

[justme]

Do you honestly believe you have come up with a formula for success in casinos that the best and brightest minds in the world somehow missed?
I'm fairly sure you have not.

Me neither It's just interesting for me to theorize about BJ right now. If it's not interesting to you, feel free to ignore it.

 

[shadroch]

Me neither It's just interesting for me to theorize about BJ right now. If it's not interesting to you, feel free to ignore it.

I'll go you one better. Bye

 

[21gunsalute]

First of all, sorry for so many questions in the last couple of days. I'm new to BJ so naturally it's very exciting time for me
Secondly, please do not consider it as an attempt to convince anyone in anything. I'm simply thinking about some new ideas and ask you guys questions cause obviously you are much more experienced than I am and hope you will easily prove me wrong. Meanwhile, we can have a nice chat

Simple system based on the following assumptions:

1.When you play progression you have a better chance to win than to lose. Let's say you play $10 $20. You have a very good chance of winning 10$. The problem is that when you lose you don't lose $10. You lose $30. Given the house has advantage you might get lucky for quite a while but will lose in the long run.

2. Money management is important regardless of how you play. You count cards. Today you up $1000. Your average winnings for the same amount of time is $500. Perhaps, you should leave cause even card counters have bad sessions. Leave, rest, enjoy your winnings. Tomorrow is another day.

3. Game fluctuates most of the time. What I have noticed from playing more than a month almost each day. You start with modest $200 buy-in and play $10 $20 progression. On most occasions you will go up and down somewhere in between $60 and $100. Some days of course you will have big loosing or winning streaks right away. But not often.

4. Reverse gambler's fallacy is also valid. You winning 5 hands in a row doesn't mean you will lose 6th. You have pretty much the same chance as always of doing so.

So here's the idea how to change advantage in your favor.

1.You set stop-losses and take profits. Let's say $200 either you win or lose in one session.

2. You start playing progression and wait till it fluctuates in your favor. in my short experience chances that you will immediately catch a bad streak are slim. 1-2 times out of ten maybe.

3. As soon as you up $10 dollars odds of you reaching $200 slightly increase in your favor. How? Well, for starters, you need to win $190 not $200. And even more good news. You can increase you bet virtually for free. So after being $10 up your progression changes. You play $10 $30 now. after you $30 up you play 3 steps progression and increase the last step bet with each winning (10 20 30; 10 20 40 and so on). What you achieve is that your max bet with your money is $20. All big bets are your winnings. Now let's say you lost your big bet and now you even again. What are the chances that it will fluctuates in your favor again? Well, the same as when you started playing.

So, what do you guys think..

Let's say you win all your $10 hands and lose all your $20 hands. That's a nice 50% win rate and yet you've lost your trip bankroll. And why limit yourself to winning just $200? Furthermore if you limit yourself to losing just $200 you may very well be done in 10 minutes or less. Bad, bad, bad idea.

 

[MangoJ]

Any system that relies on a "stop loss condition" is flawed. Why would you want to stop playing a "winning" system anyway ?

If your system "dictates" you to wait for another day - what is the value of the other day compared to the next hand ?


justme, the very thing you apparently fail to understand is: varying bet sizes will not help you overcome the casinos edge.

The keys to a winning system are (in that order !):

(1) Get a positive expectation value over the casino
(2) Reduce overall variance by bet sizing
(3) Hide your abilities


What you are doing is, jump right infront of (2). It is true: a betting system is able to reduce variance. But without (1) you still have a -EV game. What is the effect of reduced variance on a +EV game ? It will secure your profits. Thats what you want, hence you need both (1) and (2).

What is the effect of reduced variance on a -EV game ? It will make sure you lose your money!

 

[ohbehave]

You really have to stop trying to win without knowing whether or not you have an advantage on any particular round/shoe.

Bottom line: If you bet more money when the dealer has the advantage than when the players have the advantage you will lose more money than you will win. Add this kicker: You might even lose more money than you win even if you do it right.

If you don't understand that RIGHT NOW you need to stop going to the casinos. Sorry, its a harsh game.

 

[blackchipjim]

Keep playing!

Keep playing and using your system because you help the rest of us with our bottom. As long as you keep playing the casinos will have enough money to pay me off.

 

[farmdoggy]

I'll let you in on a little secret...

The martingale system actually does slightly reduce the house edge over a flat-bettor. But we're talking less than 0.01%. This is because after loss, there is more likely to have been more small cards played in the hand. Similarly, a positive progressionist will lose just slightly more than the flat-bettor... You can also reduce the house edge by increasing your bets after a failed double-down, or any point that you se a ton of cards on the table. Similarly, decrease your bets after a push, since the most common push is 20-20 (likely high cards).

A stop-loss doesn't change anything... You could start off many sessions hitting your loss point before winning a single hand. Check out http://www.blackjack-scams.com/html/prog__systems.html and you'll see that a stop loss player fares just the same as a flat-bettor, and the pos progressionist fares slightly worse.

 

[justme]

Let's say you win all your $10 hands and lose all your $20 hands. That's a nice 50% win rate and yet you've lost your trip bankroll. And why limit yourself to winning just $200? Furthermore if you limit yourself to losing just $200 you may very well be done in 10 minutes or less. Bad, bad, bad idea.

If you win all your $10 hands there's no need to play $20 hands . And you may be done in 10 min but that won't happen very often.

 

[justme]

Any system that relies on a "stop loss condition" is flawed. Why would you want to stop playing a "winning" system anyway ?

If your system "dictates" you to wait for another day - what is the value of the other day compared to the next hand ?

Yeah you're right. As the rule of thumb sometimes it's better to leave when you're winning a lot. Maybe just to rest - no math considerations. But lets say after winning 200 you start all over again...

justme, the very thing you apparently fail to understand is: varying bet sizes will not help you overcome the casinos edge.

I'm just looking into things. My logic is probably flawed; I just want to know where exactly is the mistake. Now let me rephrase the whole system. If BJ rules would be different. Buy-in $ 200. After loosing or doubling your buy-in you have to leave casino for 24 hours. On 8 days out of 10 casino will sponsor $60 from your buy-in as a promotion. Would you agree to play?

The keys to a winning system are (in that order !):

(1) Get a positive expectation value over the casino
(2) Reduce overall variance by bet sizing
(3) Hide your abilities

Of course this is the winning system. I've never argued that card counting isn't profitable.

 

[SteveG]

Funny, JustMe, but it seems like your posts, and I would imagine those of others too, get smacked by a few of the 'veterans' who don't agree with them. Even with the math on their side, perhaps anyway, I wonder why such an edge in the responses..?

 

[justme]

If you don't understand that RIGHT NOW you need to stop going to the casinos. Sorry, its a harsh game.

I'm not playing at the casino right now though I did ok when I played. I'm looking into counting for now. But at the same time, I'm thinking about BJ in general and, well, share my thoughts with you guys. No need to take it too seriously

 

[justme]

The martingale system actually does slightly reduce the house edge over a flat-bettor. But we're talking less than 0.01%. This is because after loss, there is more likely to have been more small cards played in the hand. Similarly, a positive progressionist will lose just slightly more than the flat-bettor... You can also reduce the house edge by increasing your bets after a failed double-down, or any point that you se a ton of cards on the table. Similarly, decrease your bets after a push, since the most common push is 20-20 (likely high cards).

A stop-loss doesn't change anything... You could start off many sessions hitting your loss point before winning a single hand. Check out http://www.blackjack-scams.com/html/prog__systems.html and you'll see that a stop loss player fares just the same as a flat-bettor, and the pos progressionist fares slightly worse.

I wonder how can I run simulation of my own system. Will Verite allow me to do that? It would have to have a specific instructions like adding the profit to the second bet in progression and starting all over after the certain point...

 

[justme]

Funny, JustMe, but it seems like your posts, and I would imagine those of others too, get smacked by a few of the 'veterans' who don't agree with them. Even with the math on their side, perhaps anyway, I wonder why such an edge in the responses..?

Probably they are just tired. Every now and then comes a guy who claims he discovered a winning system and they prove him wrong with math repeating the same arguments. It's ok with me. I'm not claiming I've discovered anything. It just helps me to find some obvious flaws in my logic that's all. Like brainstorming

 

[ohbehave]

No thats not it. Its nothing personal. You are welcome to be here, and welcome to gamble your money any way you choose, its your money. When you decide you are ready to play an advantage game this board has a wealth of information.

 

[MangoJ]

On 8 days out of 10 casino will sponsor $60 from your buy-in as a promotion. Would you agree to play?

Promotions are a different story. Promotions change the rule of the game heavily. Even if they pay you a part of your losses after a certain time, it can be quite profitably turning a -EV game into a +EV situation. But again, this is a different story.

I'm just looking into things. My logic is probably flawed; I just want to know where exactly is the mistake.

Nothing wrong with own research, you are on the right path. The logic of your system is flawed, and it has been repeated many many times:
Playing a -EV game won't turn you to profit when the only thing you do is varying bet sizes based on past performance. No matter how fancy your betting system is, if the right ingredient (the "edge") is missing in your play, there is no need to study your system. Maybe it's harsh to hear because you spent so much time on your system.


Think of two painters, whose jobs are to reproduce pictures of other artists. The one painter tells you everything about brush types and paint consistency, and how he is able to reproduce those Rembrandts and other stuff. You would like to believe him that he can make some money with this kind of business.

The other painter tries to tell you the same story about paint and brushes. You immediatly notice that this man is BLIND. Without listening to his storeiy, you just ask "You are blind man, how do you do your business..." and he just ignores that and tells you "Look, I have these brushes and paint, and I mix it with ...".

It is so freaking obvious that you need your eyesight to be able to pursue your business of painting. And it is so freaking obvious that you need an edge if you want to succeed in advantage play.

 

[leatherguyray]

justme that was a Great ... and very proper reply

Me neither It's just interesting for me to theorize about BJ right now. If it's not interesting to you, feel free to ignore it.

Holier than tho tones abound and I deplore them. Those should just ignore !

 

[21gunsalute]

If you win all your $10 hands there's no need to play $20 hands . And you may be done in 10 min but that won't happen very often.

Well if you're flat betting $10 you're going to lose. You're only going to win 43% of your hands. You may have a few good days but they will be well more than offset by bad days. If you're betting $10 some hands and $20 on other hands you're going to lose. The cards don't know what you're betting and even if they did they wouldn't care. A 2:1 spread isn't enough to beat any game, especially when you don't know when to bet more or when to bet less.

And you may be very surprised to see how fast you can run through
$200 so frequently. I usually buy in for $200. I almost always have to buy in at least once more and yet I win much more often than I lose. You're going to have bad streaks and playing a progression isn't going to save you from them. In fact most progressions do nothing but compound losses while limiting ,severely, how much you can win.

 

[justme]

No thats not it. Its nothing personal. You are welcome to be here, and welcome to gamble your money any way you choose, its your money. When you decide you are ready to play an advantage game this board has a wealth of information.

I'm not saying it's personal. I imagine how I would feel, however, if I had to explain same thing over and over again One thing to note here is that I do understand the advantage card counting gives you. And I do understand the concept that in the long run you gonna lose playing progression. But nothing is that simple and with every case I like to do my own case study. That's just how I am. Almost definitely I would come to the same conclusions in the end. But in the process I may learn something that might be useful to me and at the very least, it is fun to learn