Anyone else get similar in-game results?

M

Mr Twentyone

Member
I have been playing advantage for 8 months now, started off small to build up my confidence then 2 months got a decent bankroll together so went for it, and i just get annihilated regulary, i just wanted to know if you other guys find this negative swing quite normal...

UK No hole card
6 Decks
DOA
DAS
Infinite Resplits
One card only on splits Ace's
Resplit Ace's allowed.
No surrender.
Insurance allowed only if you have a natural.

House edge off the top -0.44%

Penetration 75-85% Wong out @ -2.

TC <0 = 1 Unit
TC 1 = 2 Units
TC 2 = 4 Units (or two hands of three)
TC 3 = 8 Units (or two hands of six)
TC 4> = 15 Units (or two hands of ten)

With the simulations I have run my expection is just over 1% and my EV per hour is around £14.50, but after 145 hours of play and getting whooped again and again im nearly £2100 down. So frustrating that ive never been more than a few hundred up at any point. Is this relatively normal? My Expectation is to be up around 2000 not the other way around. Thoughts please.:cool:
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
Mr Twentyone said:
With the simulations I have run my expection is just over 1% and my EV per hour is around £14.50...
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What is your standard deviation? That is what you want to know about. A generic SD might be around 28 units per hour. Over 145 hours a loss of 500-800 units is not at all unusual. If your unit is £10 you could easily lose £5,000-£8,000 in that time. Your SD will probably be different, but the swings will probably be about the same. Hopefully your bankroll is big enough to handle the swings. That's just the nature of card counting. It is a big risk for a relatively small reward.

-Sonny-
 
M

Mr Twentyone

Member
Thanks for the replys, my betting unit is £5. Total BR is about £4200 so im down half of that at the moment. I may of used the wrong formula but I think this is right.

1.1 / sqrt no. hands played x avg bet? 11 x 14.5 = 159.5 / 5 so in units for an hour that would be 31.9.
 
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EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
Down 2100 with a max bet of 75 quid?

without doing any math, that's very acheivable.

I try to avoid math, but using the formula you state, you need to calculate SD not against your EV, but against your average bet (and even that may be off, variance is dominated by your big bets).
 
M

Mr Twentyone

Member
EasyRhino said:
Down 2100 with a max bet of 75 quid?

without doing any math, that's very acheivable.

I try to avoid math, but using the formula you state, you need to calculate SD not against your EV, but against your average bet (and even that may be off, variance is dominated by your big bets).
Click to expand...
I very rarely place the 75 pound bet I almost always take the two boxes option where possible, so most of my bets are two boxes. Ok my average bet is around 3 units so slightly higher than the figure i used.

Am i very likely to still be down after the next 145 hours of play?
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
Mr Twentyone said:
Am i very likely to still be down after the next 145 hours of play?
Click to expand...
Using a generic 1 unit hourly EV and 30 unit hourly SD I get about a 65.6% chance of being ahead after 145 hours. After 290 hours it goes up to 71.5%. Those numbers can change dramatically if you have a different win rate and/or different hourly variance.

-Sonny-
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Mr Twentyone said:
Thoughts please.:cool:
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The simple answer is to post the sim you are using. Or at least the sim that represents how you've played most often.

I don't understand alot of what you say - like if you are wonging out at -2 you only play about 70/hds/hr maybe? but it seems like you are assuming 100 hds/hr for SD?

It sounds like you have been maybe doing a lot of different things over these 145 hours anyway.

Can't say I understand your SD formula but I can barely understand mine lol.
Playing multiple hands would seem to increase that 1.1 you assumed.

I won't even ask why you waited 145 hours to ask this but better now than later lol.

Regardless, from this point forward, without re-sizing your $5 unit, and I'm assuming you can't because maybe that's the table min, your original risk probably has increased a great deal.

On the other hand, and I'm a little vague on wonging-out scenarios, maybe your remaining 400 unit roll might be OK, like maybe you've been playing at a very low ROR all along lol. What do you think it was or is at this point?

Even using the formula you were using for SD, whether it's "right" or not, is your basic question something like "I think I'm 2 or whatever SD below expectation but I don't know what the chances of that happening is?"
 
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