Anyone Want To Chalk This Up To Luck?

[caramel6]

One more question.

After this finally flunks out for me I will probably take a well needed break from the Casino and perhaps learn how to count. The problem is I heard where I play has extremely poor conditions. I posted the rules of the game I play a page back, and it seems to me that these rules are pretty much top notch. Perhaps penetration and other conditions and poor.

I think you are making great job,and wish you to continue as lonf as possible

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

The streak has ended.


224 winnings sessions: $22,400

1 losing session: $500

Grand total: $21,900


Funny story regarding the loss. I was up $75 this morning and I get dealt 8/3 against a 3. I stopped and thought to myself "just hit it". After some more thinking I decided there was no way I was giving up those types of double downs, I lost the hand. I won the next two hands . Would of made the goal, but no, frozen rope of losers after that.

When I finally lost the $500, I kind of sat and chuckled for a second (dealer looking at me like I'm crazy). I couldn't believe my streak was over (even though I really did easily believe it).

Doing a few things with the money. Booked a 10 day trip to Vegas next March for the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Bought a nice watch, one that I shouldn't of bought, because the price is ridiculous. Also going to fly to Florida to visit my grandparents. Other than that I will just horde my money.

In all the time playing I can honestly say I didn't gain a distaste for the game, being inside the Casino and seeing slobs and addicts maybe, but I still love Blackjack despite the fact that I see an Ace of Hearts on green felt every time I close my eyes . That being said, I will probably go back to my seat in the Poker Room, while potentially learning how to count, despite having terrible games in my area.


Last but not least, is there anyone who can run some numbers and figure out the odds of this? I'd be curious.

 

[caramel6]

The streak has ended.


224 winnings sessions: $22,400

1 losing session: $500

Grand total: $21,900


Funny story regarding the loss. I was up $75 this morning and I get dealt 8/3 against a 3. I stopped and thought to myself "just hit it". After some more thinking I decided there was no way I was giving up those types of double downs, I lost the hand. I won the next two hands . Would of made the goal, but no, frozen rope of losers after that.

When I finally lost the $500, I kind of sat and chuckled for a second (dealer looking at me like I'm crazy). I couldn't believe my streak was over (even though I really did easily believe it).

Doing a few things with the money. Booked a 10 day trip to Vegas next March for the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Bought a nice watch, one that I shouldn't of bought, because the price is ridiculous. Also going to fly to Florida to visit my grandparents. Other than that I will just horde my money.

In all the time playing I can honestly say I didn't gain a distaste for the game, being inside the Casino and seeing slobs and addicts maybe, but I still love Blackjack despite the fact that I see an Ace of Hearts on green felt every time I close my eyes . That being said, I will probably go back to my seat in the Poker Room, while potentially learning how to count, despite having terrible games in my area.


Last but not least, is there anyone who can run some numbers and figure out the odds of this? I'd be curious.

Hi, why not go for another streak of 21000??? Or 10000???? I would just out of curiosity,

 

[phantom]

Why do you do it once a day only?

I've done pretty much the same thing before but I just get up after winning $100 and take a walk, go back to my room, get something to eat, etc. Then I would go back again and try to win another $100. I usually made about $500 a day.

Now I am counting cards but I still don't play for long periods and usually get up when I'm up $100 or so.

Incidentally that's how I got the name phantom. A pit boss in Tunica Mississippi used to call me that because he said I would come and play for a few minutes and before he knew it I would disappear with some of the casino's money.

 

[dacium]

The streak has ended.


224 winnings sessions: $22,400

1 losing session: $500

Grand total: $21,900

Last but not least, is there anyone who can run some numbers and figure out the odds of this? I'd be curious.

The odds are zero. You are the luckiest person in the unvirse.

Let me be kind to you and give the game you are playing a house edge of just 0.1%.

The chance of winning 4x$25 before loosing 20x$25 is about 83%. The chance of you doing this 214 times in a row is about 2.37E-19.

For this to come into resonable numbers it requires huge sessions. For example if I let you go upto $10,000 before you 'bomb out'. The chance of you winning 224 sessions in a row is about 1.15%.

If you are telling the truth the most likly explination is that the dealers do not know the rules are allowing you to do something you shouldn't be allowed to, or are paying you out wrongly.

The most common error that causes these unbelievable results is that the dealers pay out a blackjack when there is a 10 card up in games that don't have a hole card. They are meant to wait to ensure there is no ace. I have had this happen to me alot in australia. Its a common problem because pontoon 21 etc. all have instant 3:2 payouts for blackjack, reguardless of what the dealer has.

(I also had a bizaare run at craps when I first learn't it. The idiots running the table were paying me 5:1 when snake eyes was rolled on my 'don't come/pass' bets. It seems that I was pratically the only person to ever bet don't come/don't pass and for some reason they thought it paid 5:1 for a 1-1 crap out. I have no idea why. The 4th time I went back they had 'corrected' their error).

 

[aslan]

You left off GWB's caption. Which was: "I got it. You first divide by zero!"

Or do like BHO and multiply by a trillion.

 

[caramel6]

Why do you do it once a day only?

I've done pretty much the same thing before but I just get up after winning $100 and take a walk, go back to my room, get something to eat, etc. Then I would go back again and try to win another $100. I usually made about $500 a day.

Now I am counting cards but I still don't play for long periods and usually get up when I'm up $100 or so.

Incidentally that's how I got the name phantom. A pit boss in Tunica Mississippi used to call me that because he said I would come and play for a few minutes and before he knew it I would disappear with some of the casino's money.

Just curious, how longyour last streak last and what was your bottm line, I mean what was your biggest minus, how much did you lose in our unluckiest day? And how did you recover? At the same day? Or you simply accepted loss and walked away?

 

[aslan]

The streak has ended.


224 winnings sessions: $22,400

1 losing session: $500

Grand total: $21,900


Funny story regarding the loss. I was up $75 this morning and I get dealt 8/3 against a 3. I stopped and thought to myself "just hit it". After some more thinking I decided there was no way I was giving up those types of double downs, I lost the hand. I won the next two hands . Would of made the goal, but no, frozen rope of losers after that.

When I finally lost the $500, I kind of sat and chuckled for a second (dealer looking at me like I'm crazy). I couldn't believe my streak was over (even though I really did easily believe it).

Doing a few things with the money. Booked a 10 day trip to Vegas next March for the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Bought a nice watch, one that I shouldn't of bought, because the price is ridiculous. Also going to fly to Florida to visit my grandparents. Other than that I will just horde my money.

In all the time playing I can honestly say I didn't gain a distaste for the game, being inside the Casino and seeing slobs and addicts maybe, but I still love Blackjack despite the fact that I see an Ace of Hearts on green felt every time I close my eyes . That being said, I will probably go back to my seat in the Poker Room, while potentially learning how to count, despite having terrible games in my area.


Last but not least, is there anyone who can run some numbers and figure out the odds of this? I'd be curious.

Is there any chance that you dropped certain sessions from your tally because they didn't follow your strict guidelines? Is it possible that you have not included each and every session for some logical reason? "I was too tired that night." "I didn't follow my own rules for betting?" "I didn't stop at the prescribed stop loss." "I deviated from the plan." It seems too good to be true. And you know what they say, "If it ....

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

Is there any chance that you dropped certain sessions from your tally because they didn't follow your strict guidelines? Is it possible that you have not included each and every session for some logical reason? "I was too tired that night." "I didn't follow my own rules for betting?" "I didn't stop at the prescribed stop loss." "I deviated from the plan." It seems too good to be true. And you know what they say, "If it ....

Played it straight the whole way. $100 in my pocket after each single session, no more, no less. Anyone can call bullshit on it, it's over and done with, I'm on to different games.

 

[sabre]

I just had 225 straight winning sessions flat betting $25 a hand, where I set a stop loss of $500 and a stop win of $100. Pay attention to me ...

 

[aslan]

Played it straight the whole way. $100 in my pocket after each single session, no more, no less. Anyone can call bullshit on it, it's over and done with, I'm on to different games.

Why are you killing the golden goose? Can't stand prosperity?

 

[aslan]

I just had 225 straight winning sessions flat betting $25 a hand, where I set a stop loss of $500 and a stop win of $100. Pay attention to me ...

I'm from Missouri. :grin:

 

[Deetz]

I'm from Missouri. :grin:

In spirit, me too.

So why isn't it that someone can post a sim to figure this out?

Specifically, and by no means do I mean to dimish QFIT's software, but can it be used to figure out such questions as "winning 4 units before losing 20 units flat-betting" maybe off the top of a shoe? If so, how?

Like I think QFIT has something on one of his sites saying a 12ish unit roll will win 1 unit 90+% of the time within some number of hands in some -EV game while flat-betting. How did he figure that out, if what I remember is true?

Did OP play 50000 rounds or 200000 rds using his scheme, etc?

In general, can anyone say how to adapt his software to various "voodoo" betting schemes?

Or, perhaps, just not possible?

 

[dacium]

If the game was 50/50 with no house advantage. What is the probability of winning $100 before loosing $500, betting $25 a time? Its only 83.3%.

So what is the chance of not bombing out 200 times in a row? Its 0.83^200 = 1 in 15,200,000,000,000,000.

His claim is nothing short of utterly rediculous. For it to be resonable I would have to give the player a huge advantage. If the game was 45%/55% advantage to the player (5% EV) then a session would have a 98% success rate, and 224 sessions in a row would be about 1 in 84 chance.

I will chalk it up to lies, not luck (and isn't this the same guy who said he was a poker pro - living off online poker winnings? sure mate.)

 

[Deetz]

If the game was 50/50 with no house advantage. What is the probability of winning $100 before loosing $500, betting $25 a time? Its only 83.3%.

Well, that seems to assume one has about a 95.24% chance of winning 1 unit with a 20 unit roll, more or less, in an even money game before going broke? Then .9524^4=.83 or so. Is that what you are doing to figure chances of winning 4 units before losing 20 units, more or less? I'm ok with that, more or less.
But then, if you have already won 4 units ($100), would it not be 0.833 (your numbers)^56? = 1 in 27200 or so? After all, your 83.3% already seems to include having already won 4 $25 units? Wouldn't I only have to repeat winning 4 units 56 times in a row?

 

[christopher1]

your clearing lieing. im no genius and ive never run a sim in my life. and i have nothing against you, people make stuff up all the time, just please noone go to the casino thinking that flat betting will ALWAYS lead you to be +x units at some point. u will go home sad and broke and not even have enough money left to drink your pain away.

 

[dacium]

Well, that seems to assume one has about a 95.24% chance of winning 1 unit with a 20 unit roll, more or less, in an even money game before going broke? Then .9524^4=.83 or so. Is that what you are doing to figure chances of winning 4 units before losing 20 units, more or less? I'm ok with that, more or less.
But then, if you have already won 4 units ($100), would it not be 0.833 (your numbers)^56? = 1 in 27200 or so? After all, your 83.3% already seems to include having already won 4 $25 units? Wouldn't I only have to repeat winning 4 units 56 times in a row?

no no no. Its nothing like that. you really need to understand hypergeometric probability distribution. Its much easier to just simulate it.

 

[k_c]

no no no. Its nothing like that. you really need to understand hypergeometric probability distribution. Its much easier to just simulate it.

There is a risk of ruin calculator on my website that computes this sort of thing.

Input 20 units to risk, 4 units profit for success, and win rate of 50% (which is equivalent to expected value of 0%.) Risk of ruin is 16.667% which is equivalent to 83.33% probability of success. This is in agreement with you.

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

I just had 225 straight winning sessions flat betting $25 a hand, where I set a stop loss of $500 and a stop win of $100. Pay attention to me ...

I've done nothing to offend anyone, and people take shots like this all the time around here.

It's in poor taste and is unnecessary.

 

[aslan]

Oh! The indignity of it all!