Average Joe Betting System

[Sonny]

i don't really understand the logic of all that.

Me neither. Luckily someone else did and wrote a book about it. Guys like us just need to plug in the numbers. :grin:

somehow i don't think it's entirely reasonable because it looks to me like yeah you got a 98.27% chance of winning that 50 units but what's not said is maybe that could take you God only knows how many hands maybe way more than the average 245 plays before you go broke sort of thing?

Yes, that’s true. You could go broke just about anytime after those 245 hands as well, or long before. The second formula only gives the average number of hands it would take. The RoR tells you how likely it is to happen at some point in your life (or longer) while the Avg Plays formula gives you a general idea of how long you might last. It might be helpful for someone using a progression system. They know that the odds are against them so their theoretical RoR is 100%, but how long might they last if they only plan to play for a few hours in their life? How long does it take the average person to go bust using a certain system? Those are the kinds of questions many progression players have.

i know that CVCX has calculators that'll tell you ok if you play 245 hands say for some game and you risk say 10 units then it'll come back and give you the probability of maybe winning 50 units or what ever. doesn't quite seem like what your giving above is the same thing or not?

No, these formulas are different. The CVCX formulas are more optimistic. They give you the probabilities of success. These formulas tell you the probability of failure and how long it will usually take. The formulas in CVCX are meant for a very different set of players than the formulas I presented.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

Wins in a row = 0.43^Number of wins
Losses in a row = 0.49^Number of losses

If you include pushes then the numbers change slightly but the losses will always outnumber the wins. That’s the reason progression systems don’t work in the long run.

Doesn't that already include the pushes - like WWPW would not be 3 wins in a row even though it might seem like it?

 

[Kasi]

Me neither. Luckily someone else did and wrote a book about it. Guys like us just need to plug in the numbers. :grin:

I'm glad you said that - I'm not alone now :grin: