Bank roll and units

[bigplayer]

Hello every one. I been practicing and reading alot of books on card counting (burning the tables and black jack blue print are my favorites) and I've see different things about what unit you should use for your bank roll. I've read you should have a 500 unit, 400 unit, or even 1000 unit bank roll. I liked the idea of the 1000 unit bank roll but when I ran the numbers, I would only have a $5 unit with the 1000 unit bank roll and its kind of discouraging because alot of places have higher miniums then that. If I was to use the 500 unit approach, I would have a $10 unit, I would be able to play at more places but at the same time I don't want to over bet and fall into that trap. My question is what do you guys suggest, what did you start with, did some of the swings come close to cleaning you out....etc. Any advice or stories would be highly appreciated, thank you for your help.

Minimum Spreads Required to beat Various Games
1-3 good ruled single deck
1-4 bad ruled single deck (d10)
1-6 s17 double deck with at least 60% pen otherwise
1-8 s17 double deck with between 50% and 60% pen
1-8 h17 double deck with at least 60% pen.
1-10 h17 no das double deck with at least 67% pen.
1-16 six deck shoes (always wonging out by -1.5 True)
1-20 eight deck shoes (always wonging out by -1.5 True)

Here's the deal, your 16 unit 6 deck game top bet should be the same as you 4 unit h17 d10 single deck game top bet, thus if you spread 25-400 (16-1) at six deck your h17 d10 single deck spread would be 100-400. Your top bet doesn't change with the various games, it's your bottom bet that changes.

A high roller might spread 500-1500 in purple at a good single deck game, but spread 50-1500 at a shoe game. Same bets at each level of advantage, just a lower bottom bet. I'll add, someone who avoids most negative counts on shoes can use a bigger bottom bet than someone who plays mostly all and just avoids the worst 10% of negative counts.

Good Luck!

 

[BJgenius007]

Minimum Spreads Required to beat Various Games
1-3 good ruled single deck
1-4 bad ruled single deck (d10)
1-6 s17 double deck with at least 60% pen otherwise
1-8 s17 double deck with between 50% and 60% pen
1-8 h17 double deck with at least 60% pen.
1-10 h17 no das double deck with at least 67% pen.
1-16 six deck shoes (always wonging out by -1.5 True)
1-20 eight deck shoes (always wonging out by -1.5 True)


Good Luck!

Do you imply you need 1-30 spread for 8 deck shoes play all?

 

[BJgenius007]

Isn't optimal Kelly?

Half Kelly isn't a 1 to 2% ror?
Half Kelly fixed would be? 1.83%

Kelly; or fractional Kelly, implies resizing, we have no ror, just risk of drawdown. Then table minimums are an issue.

Can you explain exactly what Kelly betting is? I heard that name being thrown around before but I don't know exactly what it is.

Any of the major BJ books should mention Kelly?

It's betting to achieve max expected log growth of bank

For BJ its basically
EV/variance
As you win or lose you adjust your bets

Generally not recommend in the real world due to human error & for BJ, table min and max interferes greatly in applying Kelly.

People have misconceptions regarding Kelly betting. But mathematics don't lie. If you bet 1/4 Kelly, your Risk of Ruin is only 0.5%. But everything has to fall in the place. In short, if your EV is +2.25% and your bankroll is 175 Max bets, your RoR is below 0.5%. If you EV is +1.75% and your bankroll is 200 Max bets, your RoR is below 0.5%.

But in real world, people make mistakes in casino, or they did not play quality games that they can have +2.25% or +1.75% EV, then their RoR is much higher than they think they have. Actually most amateur AP don't have positive EV, and they will lose all their bankroll soon. For example, some AP I know don't have correct index plays, not that they will have negative EV, they lose more money than Basic Strategy players because of wide spread. For novice AP, the first step is to find a computer program to check your index play and spread will give you positive EV after computer simulates 10 million hands. Secondly, if you use Hi Lo, you should expect +1.75% advantage and you need bankroll of 200 Max bets. If you use a level 2 counting system and master the index play, you should expect +2.25% advantage and you need a bankroll of 175 Max bets. Third, go playing in real casino, you need keep reminding yourselves, you need +1.75% or +2.25% advantage to make Kelly betting works. That means, you have to minimize your playing mistakes, not afraid of placing your max bets when TC calls for it, and always find the decent games that you can have that required advantage.

This is the basic requirement to be a successful AP.

 

[bigplayer]

Do you imply you need 1-30 spread for 8 deck shoes play all?

depends on the rules and the penetration...for a bad ruled 8 deck game with h17 ds rules and no surrender or other beneficial rules and play-all, 1-30 probably isn't big enough. If you can spread something like 1-60 that is about the same thing as wonging. With good rules or exceedingly good penetration a shoe game can be treated sort of like a double deck game, especially since you can time bathroom breaks to the worst 5% of counts.

I would never play any shoe game in "play-all" mode unless I was forced to or the game was obscenely good. (or I had some other trick up my sleeve).

 

[aslan]

Do you imply you need 1-30 spread for 8 deck shoes play all?

When is there ever a need to play all? What? They don't allow you to go to the bathroom where you play?

 

[metronome]

What spread would one need at a $10.00 DD game, S17, noRSA, DOA, DAS AND their new wrinkle... no mid-shoe entry and no sittin' out, basically play-all or don't play at all. And this if you can find a dealer giving better than 50% pen.

 

[aslan]

What spread would one need at a $10.00 DD game, S17, noRSA, DOA, DAS AND their new wrinkle... no mid-shoe entry and no sittin' out, basically play-all or don't play at all. And this if you can find a dealer giving better than 50% pen.

Why would you need any more than a 1 -5 spread? This is a better $10 game than I am used to with its S17 if you get better than 50% pen.

 

[metronome]

It was a blast when you could jump in and out.

 

[aslan]

It was a blast when you could jump in and out.

That was before my time! :laugh:

 

[AussiePlayer]

What spread would one need at a $10.00 DD game, S17, noRSA, DOA, DAS AND their new wrinkle... no mid-shoe entry and no sittin' out, basically play-all or don't play at all. And this if you can find a dealer giving better than 50% pen.

No sitting out?

When you put your hand up and ask the dealer if you can go to the toilet does he say "not until the shuffle!"

 

[blackjack avenger]

not quite

If you bet 1/4 Kelly, your Risk of Ruin is only 0.5%.

Think 1/4 fixed Kelly your ror is .03%
Think 1/4 resized Kelly your risk of losing half bank is .08%

 

[metronome]

No sitting out?

When you put your hand up and ask the dealer if you can go to the toilet does he say "not until the shuffle!"

:laugh: no, but he does say you can't re-enter this shoe.
'Course DD, if ya could re-enter, you better pee really quick
PUSH

 

[BJgenius007]

If you bet 1/4 Kelly, your Risk of Ruin is only 0.5%.

Think 1/4 fixed Kelly your ror is .03%
Think 1/4 resized Kelly your risk of losing half bank is .08%

If you only lose half of your bankroll, it is not ruin.

 

[PierceNation]

If you only lose half of your bankroll, it is notI ruin.

I think his point is with that level of fractional Kelly, losing half your Bank is an unlikely situation, let alone ruin.

With a figure of less than one percent to losing half your Bank, your RoR is so low its almost trivial.

 

[aslan]

:laugh: no, but he does say you can't re-enter this shoe.
'Course DD, if ya could re-enter, you better pee really quick
PUSH

The thing is, if you are playing DD, occasionally a deal dives so precipitouly that missing the rest of the deal may be well worth it. You can always reenter the game in a new shoe. But I realize you were just being facetious. :laugh:

 

[blackjack avenger]

yep

If you only lose half of your bankroll, it is not ruin.

I agree

 

[bigplayer]

The thing is, if you are playing DD, occasionally a deal dives so precipitouly that missing the rest of the deal may be well worth it. You can always reenter the game in a new shoe. But I realize you were just being facetious. :laugh:

No need to worry about re-entry anyway. If you leave during a fairly deep negative, the Running Count tends to rebound towards zero but the True Count tends to stay highly negative. Even if it's the random shoe that has the TC rebounding back towards positive territory it is exceedingly rare that it will rebound to a positive count high enough to make much money off of.

In short, don't worry about the count rebounding. Mix up your reasons to avoid hands, piss break, change tables after losing consecutive hands or a dealer blackjack, then check voice mail, then color up and go walk around the sports book, then come back in another pit and start over.

 

[aslan]

No need to worry about re-entry anyway. If you leave during a fairly deep negative, the Running Count tends to rebound towards zero but the True Count tends to stay highly negative. Even if it's the random shoe that has the TC rebounding back towards positive territory it is exceedingly rare that it will rebound to a positive count high enough to make much money off of.

In short, don't worry about the count rebounding. Mix up your reasons to avoid hands, piss break, change tables after losing consecutive hands or a dealer blackjack, then check voice mail, then color up and go walk around the sports book, then come back in another pit and start over.

I meant reentry at the same table, not the same deal or shoe. Yes, there are plenty of ways to leave a sinking ship. No reason to deliberately stay and take a beating.

 

[BJgenius007]

I meant reentry at the same table, not the same deal or shoe. Yes, there are plenty of ways to leave a sinking ship. No reason to deliberately stay and take a beating.

If you remember my Counters' Table story, you know I have encountered an AP who spread $10 to $500x2 and he sat out when TC is below -1. All seven seats are taken at the Counters' Table. The penetration is good. Even the table is full, we got to play 4 rounds between shuffle. That guy becomes public enemy No. 1 because if he plays, we have to play 6 rounds on bad shoe and only 4 rounds on good shoe.

 

[AussiePlayer]

If you remember my Counters' Table story, you know I have encountered an AP who spread $10 to $500x2 and he sat out when TC is below -1. All seven seats are taken at the Counters' Table. The penetration is good. Even the table is full, we got to play 4 rounds between shuffle. That guy becomes public enemy No. 1 because if he plays, we have to play 6 rounds on bad shoe and only 4 rounds on good shoe.

Perhaps there'd be less counters there is it wasn't broadcast on the internet so often.