bankroll 650k , 1000 hours in one year

[blackjack avenger]

Increased Chances

I believe my thoughts made the OPs goals more likely, not less. It will just take a little more time and lowering expectations. His risk of large loss of bank is nill. What is probably the biggest factor in AP failure?
Large losses! With 1/8th kelly that is not a real concern.:sad:

Another reason to bet 1/8th kelly. If you do other things beside counting; as the OP states, one cannot be as sure of their advantage. So one needs to be conservative. One may think they have a 5% advantage when it may actually be 2%. If one bets very conservatively they have a cushion against errors in evaluating skill. A few hundred hours of play employing some skill is not enough to determine one's skill level. A sim of some skill is only that and not necessarily indicative of one's skill in the real world.

$365,000 at 1/8th kelly is an $45,000 bet ramp. If one cannot cover expenses then perhaps consider the "living a frugal lifestyle" recommendation. Isn't the idea for this bank to double? Fine, make it a $50,000 bet ramp. The problem will still be getting big bets in play while enjoying a large advantage.

:joker::whip:
good cards

 

[blackriver]

$365,000 at 1/8th kelly is an $80,000 bet ramp. If one cannot cover expenses then perhaps consider the "living a frugal lifestyle" recommendation. Isn't the idea for this bank to double? Fine, make it a $100,000 bet ramp. The problem will still be getting big bets in play while enjoying a large advantage.

:joker::whip:
good cards

Either I don't understand your post, or you don't understand kelly betting

 

[beyondbj]

I believe my thoughts made the OPs goals more likely, not less. It will just take a little more time and lowering expectations. His risk of large loss of bank is nill. What is probably the biggest factor in AP failure?
Large losses! With 1/8th kelly that is not a real concern.:sad:

Another reason to bet 1/8th kelly. If you do other things beside counting; as the OP states, one cannot be as sure of their advantage. So one needs to be conservative. One may think they have a 5% advantage when it may actually be 2%. If one bets very conservatively they have a cushion against errors in evaluating skill. A few hundred hours of play employing some skill is not enough to determine one's skill level. A sim of some skill is only that and not necessarily indicative of one's skill in the real world.

$365,000 at 1/8th kelly is an $80,000 bet ramp. If one cannot cover expenses then perhaps consider the "living a frugal lifestyle" recommendation. Isn't the idea for this bank to double? Fine, make it a $100,000 bet ramp. The problem will still be getting big bets in play while enjoying a large advantage.

:joker::whip:
good cards

your suggestion may be under the assumption that if i lower my spread or bet size , i can alive longer before being banned ?? so that i can play more hours to acheive the same goal ? but how about my alive hours is not much longer and the countable casino in this world is limited ?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Proved My Point

Either I don't understand your post, or you don't understand kelly betting

I purposely typed the wrong kelly number to see if anyone would catch it. Congrats to you, obviously one of the smarter members of this board!:grin:
or
I erred and fixed the post.

1/8th kelly of $365,000 would be a $45,625 bet ramp.

good cards
:joker::whip:

 

[paddywhack]

or I erred and fixed the post.

That one...

 

[blackjack avenger]

Choose $ Over Variance

your suggestion may be under the assumption that if i lower my spread or bet size , i can alive longer before being banned ??

Yes,
smaller bets means less heat and more casinos that will take your action. More places to visit, more quality of life perhaps?
Preservation of capital is very nice, with large sums one should be more conservative, betting full kelly is not conservative

so that i can play more hours to acheive the same goal ? but how about my alive hours is not much longer and the countable casino in this world is limited ?

If you don't mind burning out quickly, ok. Let's look at some math.
At full kelly you have an approx 50% chance of losing half your money!
At 1/8th semi resizing kelly you have a 20% chance of losing 10% of bank.
With the more conservative betting you have a greater chance of actually winning because a modest losing streak does not cause a major loss in bank. I would think winning would be very important.

If your time is finite then you definately don't want to play full kelly resizing because you don't have the time to have a reasonable chance of being ahead.

Table max bets, not being able to play aggressively and being barred will slow down you playing a $365,000 bank full kelly anyway.

Most pros probably play betweeen 1/3 kelly resizing and 1/8th kelly resizing.

good cards
:joker::whip:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Are You Surrrrrre?

That one...

One of the reasons I give for being very conservative is real world errors. What a better(or) way to show this then to plant a betting error!?

good cards
:joker::whip:

 

[gamblingghost]

One of the reasons I give for being very conservative is real world errors. What a better(or) way to show this then to plant a betting error!?

good cards
:joker::whip:

You know, I was called on here "crazy conservative" for suggesting we should
have 400 max bets for a BR. Here you are suggesting we should have around
600!! So my question is: what kind of 'conservative' does that make you??:laugh:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Con$ervative

You know, I was called on here "crazy conservative" for suggesting we should
have 400 max bets for a BR. Here you are suggesting we should have around
600!! So my question is: what kind of 'conservative' does that make you??:laugh:

What kind of conservative?
I hate variance
I hate a near infinite long run
I like $

 

[gamblingghost]

What kind of conservative?
I hate variance
I hate a near infinite long run
I like $

Mr. Avenger, I have just noticed something. We are maybe the only ones here that use halves. It looks like we are the only ones advocating a gigantic BR. Strange coincidence? Maybe a smart A would say yeah, because they use halves they NEED a huge bankroll! I would prefer to say, Genius minds think alike!

 

[BrianCP]

Mr. Avenger, I have just noticed something. We are maybe the only ones here that use halves. It looks like we are the only ones advocating a gigantic BR. Strange coincidence? Maybe a smart A would say yeah, because they use halves they NEED a huge bankroll! I would prefer to say, Genius minds think alike!

This makes me happy that I have decided to use Halves as my main counting method.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Alone in the Wilderness

Mr. Avenger, I have just noticed something. We are maybe the only ones here that use halves. It looks like we are the only ones advocating a gigantic BR. Strange coincidence? Maybe a smart A would say yeah, because they use halves they NEED a huge bankroll! I would prefer to say, Genius minds think alike!

I think Renzy uses doubled halves.

Yes, using halves and getting all those big bets out and the short term variance might have scarred; yes wounded, us into being more conservative! :laugh:

Halves is an odd count and I think many write it off as difficult without ever trying it. Perhaps it is difficult.

On conservative bank. Most here are probably not pros. They probably have smaller banks that they can add to. If they get to conservative they can't play. They have to assume some risk to sit at the table. Also, with money coming in they can be more aggressive.

For one who's bank is not readily replenishable, who has bills, is a pro. Also, a player who can't afford to lose a smaller bank or can't emotionally handle the variance of the game. They need to be conservative with their bank. Probably like the OP who seems to feel if he can't have large variance in his play it's not worth it for him to play; he needs to think conservatively, but it's his money.

Most pros are conservative
Most players are knocked out of the game due to variance

good cards
:joker::whip:

 

[alwayssplitaces]

I'd suggest diversifying your gambling portfolio by learning how to beat poker. You'll eventually get barred from blackjack, but you can never get barred from poker for being too good (the reward for being great at poker is an invitation to the World Series Of Poker).

With your 650k bankroll, put $400k in the stock market and let that grow by itself since you most likely won't need to touch it. Use the remaining 250k for blackjack at 1/4 Kelly (relative to a 250k bankroll). You'll last longer with a max bet of just a few thousand dollars and won't run into the table max limiting your optimum bet and generating heat. Keep your sessions short, and don't hit a region more than once in 3 months. Try not to be the biggest bettor at a pit.

Fake ID is a must at your stakes. You should have a different identity every time you visit the same casino.

In the US, spread your visits around. Hit Vegas, Reno, Laughlin, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Atlantic City, the midwest on your travels around the country, and spread your action at every casino in a region. It'll be easier to win $50,000 from say, all the PA casinos combined (with losses at a few casinos) than to win it all at one place. It helps if you have a big loss at one place, and don't keep playing there till you win.

 

[beyondbj]

I'd suggest diversifying your gambling portfolio by learning how to beat poker. You'll eventually get barred from blackjack, but you can never get barred from poker for being too good (the reward for being great at poker is an invitation to the World Series Of Poker).

With your 650k bankroll, put $400k in the stock market and let that grow by itself since you most likely won't need to touch it. Use the remaining 250k for blackjack at 1/4 Kelly (relative to a 250k bankroll). You'll last longer with a max bet of just a few thousand dollars and won't run into the table max limiting your optimum bet and generating heat. Keep your sessions short, and don't hit a region more than once in 3 months. Try not to be the biggest bettor at a pit.

Fake ID is a must at your stakes. You should have a different identity every time you visit the same casino.

In the US, spread your visits around. Hit Vegas, Reno, Laughlin, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Atlantic City, the midwest on your travels around the country, and spread your action at every casino in a region. It'll be easier to win $50,000 from say, all the PA casinos combined (with losses at a few casinos) than to win it all at one place. It helps if you have a big loss at one place, and don't keep playing there till you win.

fake ID passport ?
will I being caught to prison ?

 

[gamblingghost]

This makes me happy that I have decided to use Halves as my main counting method.

Good luck. Halves is not easy but it certainly isn't as hard as some would make it out to be. Just make sure you can count two decks down in less than a minute. Do it flipping cards one at a time, two at a time and three at a time. Two at a time you should be able to count down in about 45 seconds.
If you can do that, you will own halves. After a year or so playing this way it will be second nature.