Bankroll for beginner in MS???

[sagefr0g]

I disagree. Although I still consider myself a novice, I've walked away from the casino six times (out of six) with a profit. My total profit is now over $550.

I don't remember the actual odds with playing perfect BS (and sources disagree anyways) but as I recall you win 43%, push 9%, and lose 48%. With the odds being slightly less than half in your favor, you must know when to leave the casino. That is what I believe keeps me ahead. Of course, with this site being full of counters, they will tell you that my winnings were due to luck. Well, that may be true to an extent, but a successful six out of six casino trips keeps my eyebrows raised at the counters. (Not that I'm not grateful to you counters for the help you regularly dispense on this site)

You can find on nearly any page here that card counting is the only way to tip the odds in your favor, and I believe that. And if you mean by supplemental income you mean significant income, then I retract my disagreement. But if you're looking to use your winnings to buy a case of beer every now and again, then you shouldn't have a problem if you know when to quit playing.

the one thing i like about your tact of quiting when you are ahead is that you end up having more 'firepower' as a result in that the profit could be added to your bankroll.
there are two problems with this tact as i see it (and i'm a quiter when i'm ahead counting player [stop play at within one standard deviation above my expected value]).
problem 1. how do you determine how far ahead is enough? in other words lets say you are ahead and quit but unknowingly if you had continued play perhaps your winning streak would continue or let us say you are winning and playing then quit too late and in the process lose some of what you won. what is the magic quit number?
problem 2. you quit when you were ahead so for that session you can proclaim the victory of beating a negative expectation game........... but of course there is always tomorrow. and every tomorrow you will be facing once again that same negative expectation game. what happens if tomorrow you never get ahead? how deep do you allow yourself to sink before you quit? here again you might have some stop loss point but now you don't know that the very next run of hands may have been winner for you. this is the never ending problem if you as a basic strategy only player are going to be faced with as a 'regular' indulger of the game of blackjack.

Sidenote: I can't ascertain the distinction between long-term and short-term. Does my current "good luck streak" mean that I'll lose soon, because it should always be factored into the long-term? Well, I asked that question recently only to be assured that this is an example of the gambler's fallacy (which I already suspected). So, in the long run, every win with BS has nothing to do with subsequent/previous wins with BS.

it is difficult to draw a distinction between long-term and short-term. there is a formula that is called NO. i believe the NO formula can in a sense determine when you are likely to reach a long-term expectation result. i may be wrong in my recollection but i believe counters tend to reach their NO at around ten thousand to forty thousand hands more or less. i guess a way of looking at it is the NO is the point where the statistics relevant for the manner of play and the nature of game begin to present in the way predicted by the expected value and expected standard deviation. so in a statistical sense your current "good luck streak" meaning you shall lose soon is meaningless in the short term. but in the long term there shall be a tendency for the "good and bad luck" to represent via standards of deviation about the expected value that holds sway for the manner of play and nature of the game (this ala the normal distribution graph that would represent the statistical results of long term play of the game). unfortuanately for the strictly basic strategy player the expected value is a negative number which represents a loss of money where as the card counter's expected value is a positive number which represents a gain of money.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[NDN21]

Looking to start playing both for fun and to maybe supplement my income. Was curious as to what a good starting bankroll would be for playing just basic strategy?

Buy Casino Verite or other BJ software since you are serious enough to want to supplement income.

Listen to the senior members of this board, they will help you as you probably already know. That's something not every gambling board will give you.

Forget about any "gut-feeling" you have at the table that tells you when to hit/stand, etc.. Forget about rehashing hands, thinking "if I would of just stood then the dealer would of gotten that ten to go with his 16 instead of me and my 13 and I wouldn't of busted and he would have". It does you no good.

Even counters lose more hands than they win. What counting gives you is the advance knowledge of when the deck is in your favor and at that time out come the bigger bets. Counting also lets you know when to (and when not to) split, double, surrender, insure your hand when basic strategy will tell you to do these things under any shoe conditions. Basic strategy will lead you to lose more and win less than counting will in the long run.

Anybody can win short-term. Go to "What's the most you've won from the lowest amount?" thread on this board and you will read of some examples of the fool-hardy winning big not following any strategy whatsoever. That is more likely what happened to you and your $550 profit than any skill you think you possess.

 

[KidTampa]

If you're just playing BS for fun, I recommend flat betting a small amount. If this is the case, then you'd want a bankroll of something like 10 units (very short outing), 20 units (longer outing) or 100 units (multiday).

You can always play with less, but you may bust out sooner than you planned.

If you want to practice counting, my first advice would be to practice A BUNCH in ways that don't cost you any money. Kitchen table, software, etc.

When gambling with real money, especially if not much of a BJ player anyway, consider "acclimating" yourself with very small spreads (2x, 3x).

Thirdly, the rule of thumb is 100 units of your MAX bet (5-50 spread -> $5000 bankroll). I'm unsure if this is assuming a non-replenishable bankroll (professional gambler) or replenishable (you can rebuild with BR with your day job).

Now, personally, I'm out of town and very near some casinos at this moment, and I've been playing a lot. My BR at the start of the trip was $500, 100 times the table min of $5, but only 20 times my big bet of $25. I am running a significant chance of losing my BR, and cutting short my gambling.

Thanks that was the answer I was looking for. Thank everyone in in this thread for all the info. It was greatly appreciated.