Hi all!. I am knew to this site and I find it to be a good source of useful information. I have about 3yrs+ of low stakes poker background, but my heart is for blackjack. I spent many hrs. tring to beat online bj but over the long haul no avail. My girlfriend gets very fluky on it and 2 my suprise she is well ahead of the game. once in a while she puts 20 bucks on a site and a handful of times she came out with 500+. one time with 20 bucks she won 1800 on party casino bj. cant figure hows she does it, she dosnt know herself...she says, she just feels hot...lol. but for me im always searching for a strategy that will work...but i dont think i'll find it online. So im now turning my attention to counting and am well aware u cant count online. Im focusing on 2 counting systems KO, OPP i just want to keep it simple so i can apply it in a real casino enviroment were i have an edge. My question for you today is on Bankrolling. Ok Im not rich...i earn an honest living with a half decent job, in another 23 yrs or so i can retire and i'm good with that. I'm not looking to be a pro player...or pay all my bills or whatever. I Live about an hour and a half from the nearst casino in ontario, so at best i can try counting perhaps once week in a real casino enviroment. My question is; whats up with this $10,000 dollar bankroll? I can understand u can with-stand bad variances but what will be wrong with taking $300 each time i go and working with that? So if using ko or opp what can i expect to win after 1 yr of playing if each time i played $300 (34 wks) and played until i busted or made a profit. ty.
Bankroll...
- Thread starter bluezman
- Start date
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
I'm going to be honest, and tell you that it will most likely be a waste of your time. With only $300 you will be limited to backcounting with a high risk of ruin each time you play and since you live in Ontario that means lousy 8 deck games with poor penetration. You can expect to make about $3-$4 an hour at best and since you must drive 1.5 hrs to the nearest casino the cost of fuel and food will eat any profit you make as you won't be able to get any comps backcounting.
zengrifter
Banned
Forget OPP and go with KO, Red7, HiLo, or KISS-3. As for BR, you CAN call your BR 15k and use it $300-500 per weekly visit. I recommend that you be prepared to digg $600 on a visit when necessary.bluezman said:
Your 15k replenishable BR would be played at "1/2 KELLY, which means that your max bet would be $80 or 2hands of $60.
Depending on various game-condition factors you could expect about $15-20 per hour of play (based on $10 unit) IN THE LONG RUN. zg
The $10,000 figure bandied about is really if you have a non-replenishible BR.
with a $300 BR for a session,you pretty much need to be playing $3 tables to be reasonably financed.
You should be spreading at least 1-5,and have the means to double ,triple or quadruple your max bet without being crippled.
You are at a $10 table. Count is real good so you have a $50 bet out. You split,and then double down on each split.Thats $200 needed just to properly play that one hand.
For a $10 game,you really should have damn near $1,000 to avoid getting wiped out by bad variance.
As you are working and can replace your losses,you don't really need much more of a BR than that,unless you are talking about playing several days in a row away from home with no means of adding money.
To answer your question- not much if anything at all.
with a $300 BR for a session,you pretty much need to be playing $3 tables to be reasonably financed.
You should be spreading at least 1-5,and have the means to double ,triple or quadruple your max bet without being crippled.
You are at a $10 table. Count is real good so you have a $50 bet out. You split,and then double down on each split.Thats $200 needed just to properly play that one hand.
For a $10 game,you really should have damn near $1,000 to avoid getting wiped out by bad variance.
As you are working and can replace your losses,you don't really need much more of a BR than that,unless you are talking about playing several days in a row away from home with no means of adding money.
To answer your question- not much if anything at all.
zengrifter
Banned
Wrong! The 300/weekly infusion creates a basis for a replenishing virtual BR. He's committing 15K, reased on average 300/wk. zgshadroch said:
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EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
bluez, you're right that there's no edge to be found in honest online gambling. Bonus-husting, on the other hand, is pretty damn sweeting. And you're in Canadia so you've got more opportunities than players in the legal ghetto that is the United States. (http://www.casinobonuswhores.com and http://www.beatingbonuses.com)
As for the suggestion of really big bankrolls (where max bet <= 1% of BR), well, it's really really good advice. For instance, for me, last month went fairly poorly, and I dropped $3.5k of a $20k bankroll (max bet $200). you can add or remove zeroes to make the results more meaningful to you. That is by no means that max extent of badness that one could experience. But, imagine if that same loss was sustained (via same betting level) against a BR of $5k or less? It would be crippling.
Now, if you can truly consider the $300 a week to be an expense, then you can play more aggressively. There are fancy ways to calculate risks of "trip ruin", I think the qfit.com site has some. However, Fred Renzey threw out the chestnut of walking into a casino with at least 10 max bets avaialable. This seems pretty good, although if you're really averse to busting out early on your weekend, you might want even more. Anyway, this rule of thumb would mean walking in with $500 if using $50 max bets. Sometimes you'll lose it all, sometimes you'll more than double up.
If the tables are really shoe games, with $10 mins, then max bets of $30 or $50 won't be profitable in a play-all situation. You're going to backcount and wong in and out. (If you're choosy enough, you could even wong using only $10 bets!)
And has also been mentioned, the expected winnings from play probably aren't equal to gas cost. You'd be doing this out of love, not greed.
As for the suggestion of really big bankrolls (where max bet <= 1% of BR), well, it's really really good advice. For instance, for me, last month went fairly poorly, and I dropped $3.5k of a $20k bankroll (max bet $200). you can add or remove zeroes to make the results more meaningful to you. That is by no means that max extent of badness that one could experience. But, imagine if that same loss was sustained (via same betting level) against a BR of $5k or less? It would be crippling.
Now, if you can truly consider the $300 a week to be an expense, then you can play more aggressively. There are fancy ways to calculate risks of "trip ruin", I think the qfit.com site has some. However, Fred Renzey threw out the chestnut of walking into a casino with at least 10 max bets avaialable. This seems pretty good, although if you're really averse to busting out early on your weekend, you might want even more. Anyway, this rule of thumb would mean walking in with $500 if using $50 max bets. Sometimes you'll lose it all, sometimes you'll more than double up.
If the tables are really shoe games, with $10 mins, then max bets of $30 or $50 won't be profitable in a play-all situation. You're going to backcount and wong in and out. (If you're choosy enough, you could even wong using only $10 bets!)
And has also been mentioned, the expected winnings from play probably aren't equal to gas cost. You'd be doing this out of love, not greed.
zengrifter
Banned
"counting perhaps once week...what will be wrong with taking $300 each time i go and working with that?"shadroch said:
My interpretation of the above is 50wks x 300 = 15k. zg
Mimosine
Well-Known Member
my session bankrolls are typically $300 for $5 tables, where $300 is 12 max bets of $25.
i'd prefer to have 15-20 max bets available. i'd also prefer to have a replenishable bankroll, in that case i would bet like ZG advised, but would most definitely not have less than $600 in pocket.
there are 100s of opinions on whether a session BR should be 100 min bets, or 20 max bets, etc... using an ROR calculator as ER suggested might be worth it.
i'd prefer to have 15-20 max bets available. i'd also prefer to have a replenishable bankroll, in that case i would bet like ZG advised, but would most definitely not have less than $600 in pocket.
there are 100s of opinions on whether a session BR should be 100 min bets, or 20 max bets, etc... using an ROR calculator as ER suggested might be worth it.
Bankrolling cont...
Thanks all, for reply. I'm still missing somthing. If I have an edge of say 1-1.5%, were am i losing my shirt? this edge must manefest itsself somewhere. Ok my poker experience has brought me to this point. If I hold say JJ, QQ, KK, AA all these hands has a positive ev...sure i may get suckout many times, but for the long run my ev must play out isnt this the same concept for bj. If i have 1-1/5% leverage why should i fear losing? If the count is positive, and i spread 1-8 $10 units how is it i cant win in the run. ty.
Thanks all, for reply. I'm still missing somthing. If I have an edge of say 1-1.5%, were am i losing my shirt? this edge must manefest itsself somewhere. Ok my poker experience has brought me to this point. If I hold say JJ, QQ, KK, AA all these hands has a positive ev...sure i may get suckout many times, but for the long run my ev must play out isnt this the same concept for bj. If i have 1-1/5% leverage why should i fear losing? If the count is positive, and i spread 1-8 $10 units how is it i cant win in the run. ty.
Variance.
You need to have a big enough BR to overcome variance.
See my examples in the second post.You want to have sufficent money to be able to double and triple a few max bets.Spreading 1-8,it means you need three times a max bet(80) three times. Roughly $720 or you risk losing your BR.
Its not like poker,where you can play tight.
You need to have a big enough BR to overcome variance.
See my examples in the second post.You want to have sufficent money to be able to double and triple a few max bets.Spreading 1-8,it means you need three times a max bet(80) three times. Roughly $720 or you risk losing your BR.
Its not like poker,where you can play tight.
Mimosine
Well-Known Member
in the long run you will win. but there will be plenty of times where you lose max bet after max bet. if you are not appropriately bankrolled and don't have a enough money in your pocket, you will never see the long run.bluezman said:
imagine Shadroch's example of having 4 max bets out on a split, double, double. let's say those four max bets are 80% of your trip bankroll. what happens when the dealer pulls a 5 card 21 and now you are left with 20% of your BR in a huge + count, to be dealt a pair of 8's, which now you won't be able to split because you don't have enough money to, so you stand on your 16 v dealer 10 as the count idicates, to see the dealer pull a 20. now you have next to nothing left in your pocket, with 1.5 decks to go, and the count is still really good.....
this is one of many situations you have to be prepared for, and having the right BR is one key in doing so. having an edge isn't enough to win in the long run, you will need a LOW risk of ruin as well.
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
I just ran a sim for you and figure you can make about $5.20/hr doing play all and $8.63/hr backcounting with the numbers you gave, max bet of $80 and a $300 session bankroll. You will bust out on a lot of your sessions as the variance will hit you hard. Depending on what you drive it will probably cost you about $20 in gas for an hour and a half drive each way. So is this worth it for you? My suggestion is to start saving up for a larger bankroll then hit the casino.bluezman said:
OK. I have a thick skull, and Im still wrestling with this. please have patiece (lol). Variences...i do understand what the word means. With certain plays when the count is positive i can still loose i have no problem with that...but i will loose only so many times before it must turn around. Ok say i lost my 300 or as suggested 600, i wait a week or 2 maybe 3 i return, i'm in positive count again i loose, i return countinue my spread of perhaps 1-8 and lose again...i return and return and return again with the same strategy... ur telling me its not worth the trouble? i dont see the difference of playing this way or having a 10,000 br up front.
With my low session br that most are finding quite humourous...lol. What if...i dont spread in sequental units when count is positive - rather a basic amount say 10 min when count is positive 50 on 600 session br. could this be more manageable... ty and I applaud all reponses you all have been giving.