bluezman said:
Ok every one is talking pretty negative here, and i understand there will be neggative variances...but what of the positive ones? I roll in with $600 at point would you recomend walking?
When you get tired, bored, thrown out, or have to file the Canadian equivalent of a Currency Transaction Report.
But let's go back to looking at the downside. Say your max bet is $50, and you are aggressively backcounting, so you're not even playing any negative hands. You finally see a table have a count go positive, and by the time you sit down, it's pegged at "max bet" level.
- You drop $50 on the table. Double down. Lose. Your bankroll is now $200.
- Another $50 bet, you get a blackjack! Bankroll is now $275.
- Another $50 on the felt, dealer shows an ace, you pay insurance because the count justifies it. Insurance loses. Then your hand loses. You're back to $200.
- One more bet. Now you get a pair of 6s vs a dealer 6. you split. Each hand turns into 11s. You double down both. You get aces on both. Then dealer then draws to a pat hand, and you just lost your last $200.
Now, after backcounting tables for at least 20 minutes and playing for 2 minutes, you go home.
I'm not saying there anything wrong with this method, but it might be a shorter trip than you expect.