Basic Strategy Deviation Question

[Kasi]

you got me wondering like say about the basic strategy engine here on this site. i hear what your saying about a book-calculated EV. so but does that mean that a book-calculated EV has taken into consideration play with all known matrices as opposed to just playing plain ole vanilla basic strategy?
i mean i would have thought that say just playing through a pack using only basic strategy in the long run that the effect of negative tc's and positive tc's would virtually cancell out over time.
so anyway would such as your saying apply to the EV generated for a given game on this site as well?

I don't know - sometimes BS is calculated on an "infinite deck" assumption, sometimes it's done with "sampling with replacement" (I think - don't ask me lol). Sometimes it may be based on "total dependent", sometimes maybe on "composition-dependent".

It usually will differ a little from a "real-life" game since real-life uses cut-cards for the most part which actually increases the HA compared to BS. Which is why the HA is less in a CSM game than a cut-card game.

Like I think the BS engine on this site does not take into account any re-splitting to multiple hands for one thing.

So, basically, expect slight differences from different sources in "book-calculated EV".

 

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by callipygian
The quickest and most accurate answer is that I don't know what this site uses. However, I suspect that it is highly unlikely to program an 8-deck shoe, track the count, and make all the correct strategy adjustments when calculating the house edge. It is more likely that a program will generate 1,000,000 8-deck shoes and just deal out the cards with basic strategy.

The reason why the errors don't cancel is because, without basic strategy changes, BOTH negative-count AND positive-count play deviates from the ideal. You lose money by making "incorrect" plays at low counts, and then lose more money by making other "incorrect" plays at high counts.

If any of the site sims actually take into account changing basic strategy, I'll eat my words. But given the complexity of doing either calculating house edge or indices for strategy changes, I find it hard to believe that most people would take the time to do both at the same time.

I don't know - sometimes BS is calculated on an "infinite deck" assumption, sometimes it's done with "sampling with replacement" (I think - don't ask me lol). Sometimes it may be based on "total dependent", sometimes maybe on "composition-dependent".

It usually will differ a little from a "real-life" game since real-life uses cut-cards for the most part which actually increases the HA compared to BS. Which is why the HA is less in a CSM game than a cut-card game.

Like I think the BS engine on this site does not take into account any re-splitting to multiple hands for one thing.

So, basically, expect slight differences from different sources in "book-calculated EV".

yeah i don't know what in the world i was thinking when i was asking about a basic strategy engine taking into consideration basic strategy departures lol
i mean i guess i'm really confused. so but i guess really what your getting when you look at the house edge the basic strategy engine gives on this site or when you look in a book that gives the house edge based on some basic strategy that what your really getting is the average house edge 'off the top' of some undealt pack. but for really what happens depending on how a given pack's cards is distributed as you play the really edge your up against may be some differant.

 

[Canceler]

what your getting when you look at the house edge the basic strategy engine gives on this site or when you look in a book that gives the house edge based on some basic strategy that what your really getting is the average house edge 'off the top' of some undealt pack.

Exactly!

but for really what happens depending on how a given pack's cards is distributed as you play the really edge your up against may be some differant.

That's why we have card counting!

 

[sagefr0g]

...That's why we have card counting!

lol. i knew there had to be some reason. :joker:

 

[matt21]

Questions for Callipygian - index impacts

Here are the values for making perfect basic strategy changes from TC -5 to TC +5 - that is, the difference in EV between perfect strategy and basic strategy. But when you multiply each of the changes by the likelihood of the TC, the value decreases rapidly.

TC	Change	Value
-5	0.304%	0.003%
-4	0.184%	0.004%
-3	0.103%	0.004%
-2	0.045%	0.004%
-1	0.013%	0.002%
0	0	0
1	0.002%	0
2	0.018%	0.002%
3	0.054%	0.002%
4	0.165%	0.003%
5	0.339%	0.003%

Overall, by making perfect strategy adjustments, you will gain about 0.03% on the house.

Hi callipygian, i am trying to understand the impact of indeces on the play advantage, and found your table above very helpful. I have created the table below in xls to adjust your figures for the bet stake variation:

TC Stake$ Hands/hr Adv(BS) $/hr(BS) Index+ Adv(Ind) $/hr(Ind)
-5 5 1 -3.16% -0.17 0.30% -2.86% -0.16
-4 5 2 -2.66% -0.32 0.18% -2.48% -0.30
-3 5 3 -2.16% -0.30 0.10% -2.06% -0.28
-2 5 6 -1.66% -0.46 0.05% -1.62% -0.45
-1 5 9 -1.16% -0.51 0.01% -1.15% -0.50
0 5 34 -0.66% -1.13 0.00% -0.66% -1.13
1 10 9 -0.16% -0.14 0.00% -0.16% -0.14
2 20 6 0.34% 0.38 0.02% 0.36% 0.40
3 40 3 0.84% 0.92 0.05% 0.89% 0.98
4 80 2 1.34% 2.58 0.17% 1.51% 2.90
5 100 1 1.84% 2.03 0.34% 2.18% 2.41

(sorry for not getting the table formatting right!)

Hands played 75
Return (BS only) 2.89
Return (BS+Index) 3.73

Note that 75 hands/hour represents approx 94% of hands played because the TC range is from -5 to +5 only.
Advantage based on 6D, DAS, S17, No surrender, ENHC rules, 83% pen.

Multiplying this out it seems that the hourly rate of return is significantly higher when using Indeces.

Do you also have the index advantage for TC +6 to +10 so that I could incorporate that impact into my model? Can you see any errors in my analysis? Presumably the index adjustment incorporates a large number of indeces rather than only I18? Do you agree with statements on other places on the forum saying that the I18 rules reap a good 80% of the overall index advantage?