basic strategy question

[Strider6122]

Why is that basic strategy states that one should double on a soft 15 or a soft 16 against a dealer's upcard of 4 while it states one should simply hit a soft 13 or a soft 14 against the same dealers upcard, a 4. Essentially what makes a soft 15/16 different that it warrents a double against a 4 while a soft 13/14 does not warrent a double against a 4? Everything else seems to make sense to me on the basic strategy chart but this one doesn't. If one is betting the dealer is going to bust a soft 13 though a soft 16 seem like equal hands to me. My guess would be it has to do with deck composition, but since it is a multiple deck game I would think one 4 removed wouldn't make a significant enough difference. Can anyone enlighten me to the logic behing this or is just one of those math things we have to accept? For reference I am looking at the wizards of odds' chart at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/bj4deck.html

 

[zengrifter]

The answer: THERE IS NO LOGIC...

...per'se, except that of the "staticical logic" provided by computer simulation. By simulating A2 v 4 hit 10 million times and then double 10 million times we see that A2 v 4 HIT fairs better, etc. All BJ BS and count strategy decisions are arrived at in the same manner - multi-million hand simulation. zg

 

[Anon]

Basic Strategy is a function of expectations.

Take out your copy of Beat the Dealer. Flip to the appendix. Each of the 55 two-card combinations versus the ten possible upcards is listed in a tabular format. Within the tables are the expectations for each of the player alternative actions. The alternative that is the highest for each holding constitutes <u>the</u> Basic Strategy. For each set of rules and conditions, there is only one action for a particular holding that is of mathmatically highest expectation. For each set of rules and conditions, therefore, there is only one correct Basic Strategy.

There is a complication: pair splits. If we define Basic Strategy as the correct play given the cards we have seen, the first hand of a pair is straight forward. The second hand, and any subsequent hands from resplits, are <u>not</u> straightforward. The reason is the proliferation of cards seen in prior hands. By convention arrived at a half-century ago, correct Basic Strategy for a pair spilt is the action on the initial hand.

 

[Easy Money]

Here is why

Two reasons:
1. Because with 10 million simulation trials, the math tells us to do so.
2. Because with soft 13 or 14 it's better to NOT give up your opportunity to take a second or third hit card in order to get yourself a hand with significant value, ie. 18 - 21. Whereas, with soft 15, 16 & 17 for the most part, you will only need one card and what ever that card is, your gonna have to stand regardless.