Betting the streaks?

[blackchipjim]

I'd thought I'd throw this out for discussion. If a streak in shoe game appears early in say a 8 deck game do you throw caution to the wind or do you stay reserved and maintain your bet level. Once again if you just sit down for the heck of it and join the game unaware of the count early in the shoe say 1 or 2 decks dealt out and a streak starts to appear do you bet higher or not to catch the profit. I know I'm going to jerk a few chains with this question. blackchipjim:laugh:

 

[Mimosine]

Tell us this BCJ:

How do YOU identify a streak? Seriously.

5 straight wins for you? or 75% of the table winning 5 rounds in a row even if you're losing? What is the correct streak algorithm?

 

[Sonny]

I don't understand the question. What kind of streaks are you talking about? Winning streaks? Streaks of certain cards? Overall table results? Dealer busting streaks? At first I assumed you were talking about a winning streak, but then you mentioned counting so I'm not sure anymore.

-Sonny-

 

[ChefJJ]

I'd thought I'd throw this out for discussion. If a streak in shoe game appears early in say a 8 deck game do you throw caution to the wind or do you stay reserved and maintain your bet level. Once again if you just sit down for the heck of it and join the game unaware of the count early in the shoe say 1 or 2 decks dealt out and a streak starts to appear do you bet higher or not to catch the profit. I know I'm going to jerk a few chains with this question. blackchipjim:laugh:

The beauty of a streak in casino games is...you never know when it's gonna start, or when it's gonna end. If there is no basis on the count, I don't see why you'd bet a streak--unless you're superstitious.

I know that craps is not a popular game on this forum with the regulars because it is a losing battle (if you don't value entertainment), but a lot of people bet streaks in the dice game. That drove me to taking a look at comparing a flat-bet, alternating-pressure, and straight-pressure betting methods. The flat-bet proved consistent results, while the others were volatile and ended up with worse results over several sessions.

Point being: in a "truly random" game (like, perhaps, an un-counted BJ game), the only way to really bet a streak is to a) know when one is coming, and b) know when it's going to end.

good luck

 

[EasyRhino]

I pretty much discount streaks when they're happening to other people. And I usually don't pay too much attention when they're happening to me, since I'm busy with other stuff. And also, plain old win-loss streaks don't really have much affect on anything!

However, there have been a few occassions where I've been "stuck" with a big bet out after the shuffle, and gone on a really great winning streak off-the-top of a shoe. Pretty fun when it happens.

 

[MEDITANK]

On the night I was at kenny's place on tuesday, one ploppy next to me told me about a guy that had 17 consecutive natural 21's in a row. I once had 8 in one night, but they were not in a row. And even that took 5 hours of play. This guy did it in one sitting. I don't even want to know the odds of that happening.

 

[Mimosine]

And I usually don't pay too much attention when they're happening to me, since I'm busy with other stuff.

i had a run where i won something like 10 hands in a row after a shuffle and the rest of the table was losing hand over fist, the whole time i'm thinking i hope the count just starts going up and that these other people leave. it was really anticlimatic.

the big bet after shuffle is fun though ---sometimes! :cat:

 

[blackchipjim]

streaks

I was referring to winning streaks and losing streaks. I sat a table once and the guy next to me no matter what the count was he won. He just kept betting high and higher winning a ton of money. The count made little difference to his betting, mine was consistent bets with the count. I just wondered if anyone played winning streaks with no regard to the count until it changed. blackchipjim

 

[EasyRhino]

Until the count changed, or until the streak changed?

Let's say the count gets high and you put a bet bet out, and start winning a few in a row. First of all, yay! But in the process, the count tanks. You might, as betting camouflage, leave that bet untouched as long as long as you keep winning. Then, when you lose, reduce the replacement bet as much as you possibly think you can.

 

[Knox]

I believe what Rhino said is the only appropriate use of "streak betting", as cover, normally starting off the top of the deck or shoe. I was in MS one time and doing pretty well on a SD game while ratholing some $300 in green chips. A young male pit boss started to stare at me as I had been playing a while and of course playing well. I left a couple unit be out and flat betted as long as he kept staring me down which was quite a while. I must have won at least 90% of the bets. Every time I won my smile got bigger and bigger as I tried to pretend to ignore his rude staring problem.

The next time I went back, a few months later, I did not see a hint of recognition in his face, but I played mostly at the other pit area just to be safe.

 

[shadroch]

On the night I was at kenny's place on tuesday, one ploppy next to me told me about a guy that had 17 consecutive natural 21's in a row. I once had 8 in one night, but they were not in a row. And even that took 5 hours of play. This guy did it in one sitting. I don't even want to know the odds of that happening.

The odds of someone telling that story go up directly in accordance to the amount of liquor consumed.The odds of it actually happened are quite rarified.

 

[Mr. T]

Oh Yea, Streaks are every day occurance

In math there is no such thing or it is a non identifical event. But in everyday play we see it all the time. I get off the table if I lose 10 bets within 30 mins or if I get up to 20 bet in hand I will increase my bet. I will then leave the table if the table turns if I fall back to 20 bets.

There is such a thing as a 'hot' dealer. Call it superstition or even Voodoo, but it does exists.

 

[dacium]

I have had 9 naturals in a row, but I was playing 4 hands. Two full tables of blackjack twice in a row from 6 decks, followed by one more when i went back to 1 hand! The dealer couldn't believe it. I decided to spread because the count was high but the ace side was insanely high (there were only 4 aces out with about 1.5 decks left) so I figured it would be better going for more blackjacks than splitting aces. Don't know if its the right move, but it paid off big time.

 

[ChefJJ]

There is such a thing as a 'hot' dealer. Call it superstition or even Voodoo, but it does exists.

And there's some fu**ing chillers out there too! :cry:

 

[dacium]

Loosing Streak,	Occurances, Chance of loosing next hand
0	8644122	
1	4537831	0.524961471
2	2382545	0.525040487
3	1251446	0.525255976
4	655886	0.524102518
5	345048	0.526079227
6	180918	0.52432705
7	94677	0.52331443
8	49963	0.527720566
9	26114	0.522666773
10	13728	0.525695029
11	7152	0.520979021
12	3751	0.52446868

Streaks mean nothing. chance of winning/loosing does not change.

 

[ChefJJ]

Streaks mean nothing. chance of winning/loosing does not change.

Amen. Blindly betting a streak just increases volatility.

 

[Kasi]

Loosing Streak,	Occurances, Chance of loosing next hand
0	8644122	
1	4537831	0.524961471
2	2382545	0.525040487
3	1251446	0.525255976
4	655886	0.524102518
5	345048	0.526079227
6	180918	0.52432705
7	94677	0.52331443
8	49963	0.527720566
9	26114	0.522666773
10	13728	0.525695029
11	7152	0.520979021
12	3751	0.52446868

Streaks mean nothing. chance of winning/loosing does not change.

Holy crap. In what game of BJ does one lose 52% of the hands?

 

[Sonny]

Holy crap. In what game of BJ does one lose 52% of the hands?

In a standard BJ game when you ignore pushes.

-Sonny-

 

[Brock Windsor]

Craps system

I know that craps is not a popular game on this forum with the regulars because it is a losing battle (if you don't value entertainment), but a lot of people bet streaks in the dice game. That drove me to taking a look at comparing a flat-bet, alternating-pressure, and straight-pressure betting methods. The flat-bet proved consistent results, while the others were volatile and ended up with worse results over several sessions.

I play craps often, I used to pay for a lot of my card-counting losses with craps playing when I'd go through some heavy negative variance at the BJ table. According to Stanford Wong and others it IS a beatable game, 'dice-control' is the most accepted method. Now I do not proclaim to have this skill, but for a long time I was way ahead playing craps but about a month ago when the house changed all the felt on the craps tables I've been in the negative and seldom play. Not sure if changing the felt effected my 'dice-control' or if I was just on a long hot streak before and am now being ground down by the house edge. 3 ways I've noticed that make craps beatable without dice control: 1: If you're on a hot streak other players will often buy numbers for you as a tip. Tips value only have to cover 1.41% of your pass line bets for you to beat the game. 2: Mostly men play craps so halfway hottie women can sometimes get men to make pass line bets for them when they shoot. 3: Buy someones DC or Don't Pass bet for less than it is worth after the point is made. (i.e. buy a $50 DC bet behind the 4 or 10 for $60) This is rare but can sometimes work. If you only play on other peoples odds it is a push game. My favourite craps 'voodoo system' is Oscars Grind. It is a good way to control losses and really helps if the comps are good.
BW

 

[ChefJJ]

I play craps often, I used to pay for a lot of my card-counting losses with craps playing when I'd go through some heavy negative variance at the BJ table. According to Stanford Wong and others it IS a beatable game, 'dice-control' is the most accepted method. Now I do not proclaim to have this skill, but for a long time I was way ahead playing craps but about a month ago when the house changed all the felt on the craps tables I've been in the negative and seldom play. Not sure if changing the felt effected my 'dice-control' or if I was just on a long hot streak before and am now being ground down by the house edge. 3 ways I've noticed that make craps beatable without dice control: 1: If you're on a hot streak other players will often buy numbers for you as a tip. Tips value only have to cover 1.41% of your pass line bets for you to beat the game. 2: Mostly men play craps so halfway hottie women can sometimes get men to make pass line bets for them when they shoot. 3: Buy someones DC or Don't Pass bet for less than it is worth after the point is made. (i.e. buy a $50 DC bet behind the 4 or 10 for $60) This is rare but can sometimes work. If you only play on other peoples odds it is a push game. My favourite craps 'voodoo system' is Oscars Grind. It is a good way to control losses and really helps if the comps are good.
BW

Interesting. I've probably this mentioned more times on a BJ board than I should have, but I'm not drinking the dice control kool-aid.

As far as the other three methods...I wish I had a rack to put #2 in play! I see your point for #3 if people are offering...it would seem rare that a person playing the Don'ts would be willing to give that advantage up--but it is a decent offer. I, personally, love a variation of #1...when people flat out give you chips for a hot hand.

good luck