supercoolmancool said:I gotta side with Joel on this one. It didn't take me long to reach his conclusion. However, I believe in pro hole card players and shuffle trackers. Pro solo card counters on the other hand...I am a little skeptical.
It's much harder to be a professional solo card counter. You would have to move around a lot. To make enough to live you will have to bet enough to get noticed. I agree it's difficult to do it professionally your whole life, but not impossible.Cass said:Just curious as to why you think a card counter cant make it solo. My only belief would be that it is too difficult because of the heat. Once you start betting black it seems like everyone knows your game. I think if I was going to make my living counting I would play with a top bet of $300 regardless of BR. that way you would last much longer at the tables.
Looking back on the last few sessions I have had I would only slightly disagree Cass. It is all in the act. I was able to use my BR to account for negative counts and when it was positive I could lay it on like I was feeling lucky or getting bored etc.. However, I have been backed off, had them break decks etc.. I suppose its about how much you buy in for. When you lay down a lot of cash, It is a bit persuasive to the crew to let you play a bit. I try not to out think my play as well. Yet, I have been playing black and have them call out every time I placed a bet.. NYNY ..Cough...Cass said:Just curious as to why you think a card counter cant make it solo. My only belief would be that it is too difficult because of the heat. Once you start betting black it seems like everyone knows your game. I think if I was going to make my living counting I would play with a top bet of $300 regardless of BR. that way you would last much longer at the tables.
That's a really good post. I just thought I would say that for no reason.ihate17 said:I have been counting cards along with hole carding for close to 30 years now.
I do not consider myself a pro, have never tried (except for 6 months 25 years ago) playing as a pro but still get between 300-500 hours in every year.
Joel has been playing for three years and I guess the period of time he spent during those three years as a cardcounter is only a fraction of that time.
Most people who try cardcounting land up giving it up with the conclusion that it just does not work. My experience showed I was a fairly large net loser in 3 of my first 5 years counting.
Some people begin counting and do not even know the basic strategy that their count system would have them deviating from.
Many people begin counting and are seriously under bankrolled.
Many people do not understand the variance of the game and the fact that getting a little over a 1% edge means absolutely nothing in a period of several months variance.
Many people are afraid to put out the big bets when they should.
More people after getting their butt kicked on big bets, bet differently in the future and severely reduce their lifetime EV
Many people steam after big loses and chase their money at times when the count does not call for big bets.
Some people are using inferior count systems.
Some new counters will get confused and reverse the count.
Many many way to many people forget to play only decent games. (To Joel some 6 deck shoes are good games, teams like them, but many are not) This can be bad rules or poor penetration or a combination of both.
With time I could probably triple this list but basically these and especially a combination of these kind of things will wipe out your small edge easily and then you are playing again a negative expectation game.
Some people with a lot of study and computer practice can be very good at this game in a short period of time, especially if they are not working alone, but for most there is a stretched out learning curve.
As far as personal results. For the past 10 years I have averaged over $65 per hour while winning in 9 of the 10 years. This is straight counting, my $ per hour in hole card sessions is a lot higher. In dollars it has been over 25 thousand per year (and yes I pay taxes on it and IRS audits me about every 4 or 5 years), but if I decided to play fulltime, I could never get enough hours in without big travel expenses and I do work fulltime and have a family.
ihate17
If you have a good partner to work with you can learn how to count proficiently in a couple months. Me and supercoolmancool are good examples of that. I don't know if we learned faster than average, but it can be done. Just don't go out to the casino until you are ready, no matter how long it takes to get there.ihate17 said:Some people with a lot of study and computer practice can be very good at this game in a short period of time, especially if they are not working alone, but for most there is a stretched out learning curve.
You can do that. Maybe Bojack can give an educated opinion on this: who will last longer, a green chip player playing 60 hours a week or a black chip player playing 15 hours a week? My guess is the green chipper.Cass said:Just curious as to why you think a card counter cant make it solo. My only belief would be that it is too difficult because of the heat. Once you start betting black it seems like everyone knows your game. I think if I was going to make my living counting I would play with a top bet of $300 regardless of BR. that way you would last much longer at the tables.
Heres the thing,though.ScottH said:If you have a good partner to work with you can learn how to count proficiently in a couple months. Me and supercoolmancool are good examples of that. I don't know if we learned faster than average, but it can be done. Just don't go out to the casino until you are ready, no matter how long it takes to get there.
You make a good point. But you also define my idea of a great weekend!joel099 said:50-100 bucks profit on a weekend BINGE GAMBLING session does NOT QUALIFY AS MAKING A LIVING!!!
Well that isn't completely fair. We only have one casino within reasonable driving distace which was 2 hours away. We play for low stakes so to make it worth it we must play longer sessions. Also they only had ONE beatable game with only ONE table. So Scott and I had no choice but to play together at the same table and we lasted about 40-50 hours before getting kicked out. Victims of circumstance.shadroch said:Heres the thing,though.
You two might have learned how to count faster than average,but you didn't learn how to play.Your partner says he has about 50 hours of real play,and you guys are banned from all your local places.There is a lot more to succeeding in BJ than knowing how to count.Staying under the radar is equally important,a lesson you seem to have learned after the fact.Doesn't really matter how well you can count if you can't play.
Joel, the odds of somebody winning for 24 consecutive sessions at blackjack are almost nil and nobody will win this challenge. Given the fact that you think you have to win everyday at blackjack gives me the feeling that you don't understand the how the edge works in this game. You have given me the impression that when you started playing blackjack you expected the game to work flawlessly in your favour and that the visit to the casino would be like going to an ABM machine and just withdrawing your cash anytime you felt like it.joel099 said:better run a trial FIRST at your local casino using a SIX-DECK MULTIDECK SHOE before taking me up on my $50,000 offer. It may LOOK easy to win a minimum of $200 per DAY(NOT AVERAGE $200 per day) . I'm talking about WINNING $200 min per day for TWENTY-FOUR consectutive sessions...THIS IS NOT AS EASY AS IT SOUNDS...Believe me I tried . In fact I made it to the tenth session showing a profit of 200-300 per day and on the next day LOST $4000 to shoot me back in the OVERALL NEGATIVE FOR ALL SESSIONS PLAYED.
I'm only banned from one place, and quite frankly staying under the radar was near to impossible for our situation. The situation was, since we were under 21, the nearest casino was 1.5 hours away. That's 3 hours both ways. That costs money in gas, and uses up 3 hours of our time. So we have to make that up just to break even. Then we have to play more than that to make a decent hourly EV. Playing short sessions to avoid detection was out of the question. I wasn't about to go there and play 1.5 hours and just break even for a 4.5 hour trip.shadroch said:Heres the thing,though.
You two might have learned how to count faster than average,but you didn't learn how to play.Your partner says he has about 50 hours of real play,and you guys are banned from all your local places.There is a lot more to succeeding in BJ than knowing how to count.Staying under the radar is equally important,a lesson you seem to have learned after the fact.Doesn't really matter how well you can count if you can't play.