Blackjack strategy question
- Thread starter jberger
- Start date
Actually, that gives you the WORST chance at any profit. Any system that has you betting more at times you don't have an advantage, is making you lose more too. If you must play (and there's no reason you should), you'll lose least sticking to table minimum.jberger said:
winr_winr_chicken_dinner!
Well-Known Member
Luck...
Congrats on your "system". Yes you MIGHT lose $$ in the long run (Here it comes, he WILL, not MIGHT...) but you also may continue to be "lucky". Nobody knows for sure how long you can continue to win with ANY system. You may continue to play with this progressive system for the rest of your life and NEVER lose, but the odds are really, really against it. You could be a counter and hit a negative slide that goes on forever, but the odds are against that too. Just please don't confuse this with Advantage Play, it should probably have another name, like "House Advantage Play" or something stronger such as "I don't want this money, please take it play".
Good luck!
jberger,jberger said:
Congrats on your "system". Yes you MIGHT lose $$ in the long run (Here it comes, he WILL, not MIGHT...) but you also may continue to be "lucky". Nobody knows for sure how long you can continue to win with ANY system. You may continue to play with this progressive system for the rest of your life and NEVER lose, but the odds are really, really against it. You could be a counter and hit a negative slide that goes on forever, but the odds are against that too. Just please don't confuse this with Advantage Play, it should probably have another name, like "House Advantage Play" or something stronger such as "I don't want this money, please take it play".
Good luck!
Daddybo-
Finally someone with a sense of humor and dealing in reality. I was going to go there with question #2, however, everytime I do, "they bring me down to their level and kick my butt with their experience!" Oh well, I still find this message board very informative with a broad area of expertise. Thanks to all.
Finally someone with a sense of humor and dealing in reality. I was going to go there with question #2, however, everytime I do, "they bring me down to their level and kick my butt with their experience!" Oh well, I still find this message board very informative with a broad area of expertise. Thanks to all.
Well, he does say "I know these systems are not soppose to work long term" indicating his awareness of of the fact it will not win forever.ExhibitCAA said:
All he really does is cite his results for 100 sessions and wonder what, in effect, the standard error for his system might be over that period of time for his system.
Can you answer his question of his chances of having these results over 100 sessions?
Is it to be completely expected this would happen or highly unusual? Would you tell an AP guy who claimed the same thing after being ahead for that long?
Would you be as able to read into his mind and determine his self-opinion of the quality of his play? What's that about anyway?
Of course lots of questions would need to be answered to be more "scientific"
about it lol.
Does not an AP player also ask himself, as you say, "Blackjack is more fun for me if I vary my bets according to some scheme, and I don't mind occasionally getting destroyed if it means I can go home winning a dollar on most visits."?
All I'm saying is, even voodoo systems have their own avg bet/rd, SD/rd and chances of achieving a goal in a given period of time. Not that I ever have a clue what those answers might be. Especially in BJ with uneven pay-offs.
But I'm just never surprised about how long such "systems" (that don't really fit my definition of a "system" anway lol) may last.
I can't answer it either lol. But I'd like to lol.
But, still, hey, its voodoo where anything goes I guess.
Ideally without the pejorative adjectives lol.
Couldn't agree with you more.Canceler said:
I've always wished the details of his system (number of starting units, rules of betting and game, when to maybe start over with the betting system etc) had been revealed.
And also, of course, the Wiz had run the same few million rounds many times lol.
But all he had to actually do was the obvious and simple and prove it wouldn't last x million rounds.
For sake of argument and simplicity, can we assume 128000 hands was the expected break even point?
Not that I know what that would mean either except that's how long I could expect to last using his system with so much starting roll (I assume).
Although, in a -EV game, how long could I expect to last before meeting -EV rather than merely breaking even in dollars which actually would exceed my EV?
My big wish is to know if the software is out there to define a BJ betting "system" with all the rules necessary as to when change bet, by how much etc.
The Wiz did it with Birdsong - why can't anybody else do it?
If I were the Wiz, I'd sell that software, with user-friendly drop-down menus for rules and betting system etc to -EV, to voodooing freaks like me.
Why not sell to 95+% of the market lol?
