blackjack switch & card counting?

[steve waugh]

Snyder's strategy

Snyder's strategy is at his site blackjackforumonline.com

The site is almost inactive but the BJ library is a treasure which is where you will find it.
Regards
Waugh

 

[moo321]

Okay, then you have to memorize the full EV chart, and then you have to calculate EV1 + EV2 ?>? EV3 + EV4 where EV1 and EV2 are the 2 ev's if you keep your 2 hands, and ev3 and ev4 are if you switch the 2 cards. So memorizing the exact decimal numbers to a few places for the entire would be only part of the problem. The other part is thinking about what your switched hands would be, and adding those high-precision numbers on the fly. A few errors per hour would definitely occur as well as a low # of hands per hour, at least for a few months. You could definitely round all the numbers, which would help. Up to you if you're up for the challenge and dedication it would require, which would be more complicated than a full index chart. And that's just for the B.S.. Image also having to count and memorizing additional index numbers, which would be a huge problem to calculate.

Well, many of your switches are intuitive. 10-5 and 10-6, of course you switch to 11 and 20.

And as far as the errors, hands per hour, etc. why not just play on a simulator until you have it down perfectly. Couldn't take more than a few weeks. Again, the goal here is heat-free EV, which is the holy grail of counters.

You could also think of the EV fractions as integers, which would make it easier to memorize. Like how we say a baseball player "bats 327" instead of .327. Just, thinking mnemonically, you know...

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Well, many of your switches are intuitive. 10-5 and 10-6, of course you switch to 11 and 20.

And as far as the errors, hands per hour, etc. why not just play on a simulator until you have it down perfectly. Couldn't take more than a few weeks. Again, the goal here is heat-free EV, which is the holy grail of counters.

You could also think of the EV fractions as integers, which would make it easier to memorize. Like how we say a baseball player "bats 327" instead of .327. Just, thinking mnemonically, you know...

That would be a good project, a BJ Switch simulator that records the EV of a player's switch decisions.

A player that does not know to switch 5-10 and 10-6 would be screwed. But how about A-3 and 10-7 vs. 8, how much are you going to lose by getting that one wrong when it happens?

 

[moo321]

That would be a good project, a BJ Switch simulator that records the EV of a player's switch decisions.

A player that does not know to switch 5-10 and 10-6 would be screwed. But how about A-3 and 10-7 vs. 8, how much are you going to lose by getting that one wrong when it happens?

Although, we still don't know what the EOR is... so I have no idea if it's worth the hassle.

 

[jopke]

Any updates on this?

Has anyone developed a decent strategy for BJ switch?

 

[moo321]

Any updates on this?

Has anyone developed a decent strategy for BJ switch?

Well, the strategy is out there. It's just that you need to memorize EV charts... No "workable" strategy, and I suspect there won't ever be one.

I'm more concerned about the EOR...

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Well, the strategy is out there. It's just that you need to memorize EV charts... No "workable" strategy, and I suspect there won't ever be one.

I'm more concerned about the EOR...

Off the top of my head, I'd use that versatile tool, Revere Plus/Minus.

2-6 = +1

9-10 = -1

What these EOR are going to hit hard on, are the double down plays because you are switching yourself into so many of them. Give me 9's over A's in the shoe any time for doubles, because if I don't make my hand the 9 will bust the dealer out. There's also that ugly ace on an 11 double.

 

[moo321]

Off the top of my head, I'd use that versatile tool, Revere Plus/Minus.

2-6 = +1

9-10 = -1

What these EOR are going to hit hard on, are the double down plays because you are switching yourself into so many of them. Give me 9's over A's in the shoe any time for doubles, because if I don't make my hand the 9 will bust the dealer out. There's also that ugly ace on an 11 double.

Do you know what the EOR's are for the game? It would be impossible to know how to bet without that...

 

[FLASH1296]

The huge dealer advantage of NOT losing, but pushing on 22 needs to be reflected in the deuce's counting "tag"

The value of the deuce is obviously INFLATED.

A shoe with excess deuces would favor the house and deficient deuces would aid the player.

As such, I believe that the deuce needs to be counted as a "super" low card,
at least the equivalent of the 4 and 5

I would love to see actual E.O.R.'s but they do not exist.

Noteworthy: the Ace's value also is very obviously altered.

 

[victorino]

A player that does not know to switch 5-10 and 10-6 would be screwed. But how about A-3 and 10-7 vs. 8, how much are you going to lose by getting that one wrong when it happens?

Switch to A-10 and 7-3, double on 7-3?

 

[moo321]

I would love to see actual E.O.R.'s but they do not exist.

What do you mean they don't exist? They exist. Maybe no one knows what they are, but there is definitely an effect of removal in this game.

 

[pit15]

So index plays not only affect hit/stand decisions but affect switching too. Good luck with that.

This game would be insanely hard to beat. The amount of effort it would take for the most likely small edge you'll get in the game (if any edge) is not worth it. There's higher EV opportunities out there.

What about situations like 10-8 and 10-8 versus 9 up
10-8 and 10-8 vs 10 up?

10-7 and 10-7 vs 8 up? What's the right switch?

The answer isn't obvious and there's many of these types of situations.

 

[moo321]

So index plays not only affect hit/stand decisions but affect switching too. Good luck with that.

This game would be insanely hard to beat. The amount of effort it would take for the most likely small edge you'll get in the game (if any edge) is not worth it. There's higher EV opportunities out there.

What about situations like 10-8 and 10-8 versus 9 up
10-8 and 10-8 vs 10 up?

10-7 and 10-7 vs 8 up? What's the right switch?

The answer isn't obvious and there's many of these types of situations.

Lots of things become beatable if they think it's a carny game and you can spread 1-50.

 

[pit15]

Lots of things become beatable if they think it's a carny game and you can spread 1-50.

Yes, but the question becomes is it worth it? You can do card counting and beat carribean stud, but it's not worth it.

Putting that effort into looking for a better opportunity will probably net you more $. And you can make any game into a heaty game. Win all the chips in the rack and there will be a lot of attention

 

[victorino]

Always default to initially going to:
http://wizardofodds.com/

Blackjacks pay even money...ouch!

 

[moo321]

You can do card counting and beat carribean stud, but it's not worth it.

Umm, what?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Umm, what?

You can, if you have 7 players at the table and can see all cards you can alter your bet/fold decision enough to get an advantage. I believe it is worth it, because you get a >1% advantage every hand, but poker-based games are slow and you'd have to bet a lot to make up for that. According to Dr. CAA a team skilled enough to do that could make more money doing other things.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Switch to A-10 and 7-3, double on 7-3?

That's not what I mean. Your choice is A-3, 10-7 or A-7, 10-3 vs. 8. Which is better, and if you happen to get it wrong how much will it cost you?

 

[victorino]

That's not what I mean. Your choice is A-3, 10-7 or A-7, 10-3 vs. 8. Which is better, and if you happen to get it wrong how much will it cost you?

I liked it better when what i thought you meant wasn't really what you meant...

 

[billionaireben]

bj switch.

I have heard the game at Casino Royale in vegas has a 0.19% house edge without counting but using perfect strategy (which shackleford says nobody has a memorizable strategy.) I played it but got too many pushes. Id have 2 twenties and he'd have 22. If the dealer 22 push issue were removed it would be a great game. The other cause of pushes is i'd have 18 and 20 and the dealer would have 19, you get the idea. I usually only play one hand in BJ and raise it as high as I can get away with at the table based on the count.

A normal count can beat it, if they switched to sd or dd instead of a shoe then it would be a great game. I tested it with 2 decks and wound up going back and forth between a 900 loss and a 900 gain, finishing on top at 200 hands.

If you know dice control, craps at casino royale with 100x odds is a much better bet. I'd bring a friend that just bets the line, then bet their odds (or share them). I make 55% of points on average and they can pass me the dice if I miss one thus making up for the 1.4% they save me.