Blackjacks increase as cards left decreases

QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
JSTAT said:
Here is a question from the Wizard of Odds FAQ:

Why is the house edge for one deck different than for multiple decks? If I'm not counting cards why does the number of decks matter?

The answer has to do with the fact that once a card is played it has an impact on the distribution of the remaining cards. For example the single deck basic strategy calls for standing on two sevens against a ten, with two more decks the player should hit. In the situation with one deck the probability of drawing a third seven on the third card is only 2/49, or 4.08%. With two decks this probability rises to 6/101 or 5.94%. With the lower probability of catching a 3-card 21 in single deck (the only total that can beat a dealer 20) the best play is to stand. The effect of removing a single card increases as the number of decks decreases. The player has the option to hit or stand on a stiff but the dealer must hit once. In other words stiffs hurt the dealer more than the player. Also, with fewer decks more blackjacks are probable, which pays 3-2 to the player but only 1-1 to the dealer.
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We all know that. What matters is the original number of decks. Not the current number. That's the way probabilities work.
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
zengrifter said:
It effects the BS player EV. zg
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No. It affects the BS player EV at a TC of 0, which is meaningless to a BS player. BUT, it does not affect the overall BS player EV. BS EV is the same everywhere in the shoe, except near the end where CCE comes into play. Floating Advantage has no effect on a Basic Strategy player's results.
 
L

Licentia

Banned
If you have a higher percentage chance to get BlackJacks near the end of the shoe due to the composition of the deck, then that same composition lowered your chance to get a BlackJack at the beginning of the Shoe. I don't understand the point of this thread. It all balances out in the long run to 1 in 21 hands gets a BJ.

Licentia
 
S

stophon

Well-Known Member
QFIT said:
No. It affects the BS player EV at a TC of 0, which is meaningless to a BS player. BUT, it does not affect the overall BS player EV. BS EV is the same everywhere in the shoe, except near the end where CCE comes into play. Floating Advantage has no effect on a Basic Strategy player's results.
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Just guessing, but do you see less TC's of 0 near the end of a shoe?

And JSTAT, you're comical.
 
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