Can KO's Running Count Be True Count Converted?
- Thread starter Finn Dog
- Start date
Brett_Harris
Member
Yes - all unbalanced counts can...
By the Unbalanced True Count Theorem:
Net unbalance per deck for K-O: U = +4
Therefore choose Initial Running Count (IRC) = - N_decks * U
Eg for six decks, IRC = -6 * 4 = -24
Unbalanced True Count (UTC) = IRC/(# decks remaining)
Now the Equivalent Balanced Count (EBC) = (K-0) - (U/4))/13 =
(-14,12,12,12,12,12,12,-1,-1,-14*4)/13
= approx (-1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, -1*4) [Hi-Lo]
Now UTC = EBTC - U, K-O(UTC) ~= Hi-Lo(TC) - 4
So if you have access to K-O true indices fine, otherwise since the EBC is approximately Hi-Lo (except for the 7's), take Hi-Lo indices and subtract 4 to give True count K-O indices.
For example, when the true count is zero for Hi-Lo, this corresponds to a UTC of -4. That is a neutral deck has UTC = -4, which is obviously true since at the beginning of the shoe, IRC = -24, UTC = -24/6 = -4.
Therefore all the Hi-Lo true count indices we know and love such as Insure at TC=+3, has a TKO UTC of -1. At the Pivot (UTC = 0), this corresponds to a Hi-Lo TC=+4.
Insure UTC >= -1 (TC=3)
Stand 16-10 UTC >= -4 (TC=0)
etc.. you get the picture.
All the same goes to betting.. if you only want to play in ADV>0 hands, this corresponds to a Hi-Lo TC of +2, so UTC >= -2. If you leave at TC=-1, leave at UTC=-5.
Cheers,
Brett.
Cheers,
Brett.
By the Unbalanced True Count Theorem:
Net unbalance per deck for K-O: U = +4
Therefore choose Initial Running Count (IRC) = - N_decks * U
Eg for six decks, IRC = -6 * 4 = -24
Unbalanced True Count (UTC) = IRC/(# decks remaining)
Now the Equivalent Balanced Count (EBC) = (K-0) - (U/4))/13 =
(-14,12,12,12,12,12,12,-1,-1,-14*4)/13
= approx (-1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, -1*4) [Hi-Lo]
Now UTC = EBTC - U, K-O(UTC) ~= Hi-Lo(TC) - 4
So if you have access to K-O true indices fine, otherwise since the EBC is approximately Hi-Lo (except for the 7's), take Hi-Lo indices and subtract 4 to give True count K-O indices.
For example, when the true count is zero for Hi-Lo, this corresponds to a UTC of -4. That is a neutral deck has UTC = -4, which is obviously true since at the beginning of the shoe, IRC = -24, UTC = -24/6 = -4.
Therefore all the Hi-Lo true count indices we know and love such as Insure at TC=+3, has a TKO UTC of -1. At the Pivot (UTC = 0), this corresponds to a Hi-Lo TC=+4.
Insure UTC >= -1 (TC=3)
Stand 16-10 UTC >= -4 (TC=0)
etc.. you get the picture.
All the same goes to betting.. if you only want to play in ADV>0 hands, this corresponds to a Hi-Lo TC of +2, so UTC >= -2. If you leave at TC=-1, leave at UTC=-5.
Cheers,
Brett.
Cheers,
Brett.
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Hey.. it's Brett Harris!!! Welcome
callipygian
Well-Known Member
You can, but why would you want to do it? The big advantage of unbalanced systems is that you don't have to convert to a true count.Finn Dog said:
Finn Dog
Well-Known Member
callipygian said:
I hear you--and I know it may seem contradictory to attempt such a conversion. My plan was just to do a true count conversion basically as a double-check just for betting efficiency on certain plays--vs. on playing decisions themselves.
I suppose this is my first attempt at slowly moving over to Hi-Lo from KO Full to see which I like better on 6 deck shoes. Any thoughts? I know the sims have them neck and neck; however, I understand one advantage of Hi-Lo is that it has a 97% betting efficiency (according to IA from Burning The Tables).
Thank you,
FD
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Finn Dog
Well-Known Member
Sorry, I'm still a little lost. Can someone tell me please (for 6D KO "Full" with a standard IRC of -20 that's been adjusted by 30 for an IRC of +10):Brett_Harris said:
1. What does my IRC of 10 change to?
2. What does my Key Count of 26 change to?
3. What does my Pivot Point of 34 change to?
4. What do my KO "Full" Matrix values change to? (I'll give one as an example: Hard 16 vs. 8: stand at a RC of 46 or more.)
Thanks again,
FD
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nightspirit
Well-Known Member
Your IRC will change to 6x(-4)=-24Finn Dog said:
Depending on the game you're playing you will probably raise your bet around a TC of -3 or -2. Your neutral true count is -4 that's approximately to a TC of 0 for Hilo.
your pivot will be a TC of 0 that's equal to a +4 TC of Hilo.
I don't know if it's possible to transform running count indices into true count indices, better you use software to generate them.
You can take the hilo indices and subtract 4. I think that was suggested somewhere by Brett Harris. It will be a good approximation though Hilo doesn't count the 7 so some indices like 14 vs. 10 for example will be different. I will see if I find some TC indices for KO in my 'archive'.
nightspirit
Well-Known Member
okay, I found the indices but I have only the 'sweet 16'. maybe they are a help.
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
Maybe I can simplify things for you. I will split the difference and use an IRC of zero, you can adjust these numbers for 1. and 2. above by either adding or subtracting 10 from the IRC.Finn Dog said:
IRC=0 using 6 decks
5 decks remaining TC 0=4 TC 1=9 TC 2=14 TC 3=19 TC 4=24 TC 5=29
4 decks remaining TC 0=8 TC 1=12 TC 2=16 TC 3=20 TC 4=24 TC 5=28
3 decks remaining TC 0=13 TC 1=15 TC 2=18 TC 3=21 TC 4=24 TC 5=27
2 decks remaining TC 0=16 TC 1=18 TC 2=20 TC 3=22 TC 4=24 TC 5=26
1 deck remaining TC 0=20 TC 1=21 TC 2=22 TC 3=23 TC 4=24 TC 5=25
Now you can either memorize all those TC numbers or simply look at the discard tray and take the decks remaining and add or subtract that from the pivot to get your true count. So as an example with 3 decks remaining the true count will go up or down by 1 for each 3 you subtract or add from the pivot. With 3 decks remaining subtract 3 from the pivot for a true count of +3. So if the running count is at 21 with 3 decks remaining you have a true count of +3. If the running count is at 19 with 3 decks remaining you would subtract another 3 to get a true count of +2, always round down.
Does this make sense to you?
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Finn Dog
Well-Known Member
I wish it did so I wouldn't have to keep bothering you!SystemsTrader said:
In any event, I took your chart and adjusted all the TC numbers by an additional 10 to match my game: an IRC adjusted to +10 vs the standard KO IRC of -20 for 6 decks:
IRC of 10 using 6 decks (Key Count of 26, Pivot of 34)
5 decks remaining TC 0=14 TC 1=19 TC 2=24 TC 3=29 TC 4=34 TC 5=39
4 decks remaining TC 0=18 TC 1=22 TC 2=26 TC 3=30 TC 4=34 TC 5=38
3 decks remaining TC 0=23 TC 1=25 TC 2=28 TC 3=31 TC 4=34 TC 5=37
2 decks remaining TC 0=26 TC 1=28 TC 2=30 TC 3=32 TC 4=34 TC 5=36
1 deck remaining TC 0=30 TC 1=31 TC 2=32 TC 3=33 TC 4=34 TC 5=35
OK, I must be missing something very obvious, can you please tell me what that is: in your example, if the RC is 21 (with 3 decks remaining), and I subtract 3 from my pivot of 34, that's 31. What do I divide by what to come up with +3?SystemsTrader said:
Thanks once again for everyone's help!
FD
nightspirit
Well-Known Member
The easiest way to true count an unbalanced system is the way described by Brett Harris. You only need to memorize one set of indices.
But look if this spread sheet can help you:http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=38402&postcount=1
But look if this spread sheet can help you:http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=38402&postcount=1
nightspirit
Well-Known Member
That's simple just change the IRC in cell C1 to your desired IRC. You will receive the numbers SystemsTrader gave you above.Finn Dog said:
Edit: I see the table begins with 5 decks remaining so just insert "6" in cell B4. You will receive 0 this way as it should be.
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Finn Dog
Well-Known Member
Sorry, the way I phrased the question was ambiguous--what I meant was how can I find out what the RC value would be for a TC of +2 for 6 decks remaining (as the author lists values for only 5 decks and less)...I'm guessing it's 22?nightspirit said:That's simple just change the IRC in cell C1 to your desired IRC. You will receive the numbers SystemsTrader gave you above.
Edit: I see the table begins with 5 decks remaining so just insert "6" in cell B4. You will receive 0 this way as it should be.
Thanks again,
FD
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nightspirit
Well-Known Member
Just do the steps I wrote in my previous post. For example with a IRC of +10 and 6 decks remaining you will have a TC of +2 at a RC of 22.Finn Dog said:
Easier is to start your IRC at -24 for 6 decks and divide by the remaining decks.
RC=-12 -> -12/6=-2
since a tc of -4 is your neutral deck level (correspondending to a TC of 0 for Hilo) you are 2 above your neutral deck level so tc +2.
Finn Dog
Well-Known Member
Nightspirit,nightspirit said:
For some reason I'm Gump-slow on this one--as I lost you during the explanation in your detailed post earlier. Could I trouble you to re-phase and walk me through the math--step-by-step--for the above example of an IRC of +10 for 6 decks equaling a RC of 22?
Thanks once and for all (hopefully)!:laugh:
FD
nightspirit
Well-Known Member
Hey no problem, let's try it again!Finn Dog said:
I hope you have read this post by Brett Harris Yes - all unbalanced counts can...
If your choosen IRC is different from ''-N_decks*U'' like in your example IRC=+10 you can calculate your UTC this way:
UTC = - (IRC) + RC - U x ( # decks_played ) / (# decks_rem)
Putting in your numbers we receive:
(-(10) + 22 - 4 x (0) ) / 6 = (-10+22) / 6 = 2
we receive an easier equation if we make IRC =-U x #decks
and (#decks_played) = #decks - (#decks_rem)
now our UTC = (U x #decks +RC - (U x #decks - U x #decks_rem)) / (# decks_rem)
UTC = RC + (U x #decks_rem) / (#decks_rem)
which leads us to UTC = (RC / (#decks_rem)) + U
Example:
for KO with IRC=-24 and U = 4:
RC = -12;
#decks_rem=4
--> UTC= (-12/4) + 4 = 1
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
Don't worry you are not bothering anyone by asking these questions. After reading my own example I did a lousy job of explaining it. I would not make a very good teacher because of my idiosyncrasies. I see you've looked at KO Rob's chart. So instead of memorizing that whole chart there is some easy addition and subtraction you can do to get the true counts. In my example there is no division involved. Also with true counting KO you can forget about the key count is doesn't matter.Finn Dog said:
I will use your numbers in these examples. 6 decks, IRC=+10, pivot=+34, key=+26.
Let's say the count takes off and after 1 deck played or 5 decks remaining, the running count is at +24. That's pretty high but under the KO system you still wouldn't raise your bet because its not at the key count yet but its so close. This is one of the flaws with KO it underestimates the advantage early in the shoe and overestimates late in the shoe as well. KO is a fine system and gets the money in the long run but it can be improved upon by true counting it.
So with your running count of +24 you are wondering what's the true count? The pivot will always equal a true count of +4. Now look at the discard tray and you see 5 decks remaining. So subtract 5 from the pivot for each true count. So when you subtract 5 from the pivot you get 29 so a true count of +3 would equal 29 which your running count is below so subtract another 5 which would come to 24 so the true count of +2 is equal to a running count of 24 which your running count happens to be at. So with a true count of +2 you would definitely want to raise your bet.
Ok now using the same running count of 24 let's say there are 4 decks left. Subtract 4 from the pivot for each true count. 34-4=30 or TC+3, -4=26 or TC+2, -4=22 or TC+1. Since your RC is at 24 is between TC of +2 and +1, round down for a true count of +1.
Does this make anymore sense now? I'm just giving you an alternative method to what Brent Harris has shown you.
Here's a few more examples. Your running count is at +36 with 2 decks remaining to be played. So now add 2 onto your pivot so the true count will go up by +1 for each 2 that you add to it, so a true count of +5 will occur at 36 which your running count is at. Print out a copy of KO Robs chart and it should start to make sense. Here's a final example were KO overestimates at the end of the shoe. Let's say you are at 1 deck left to be dealt with a running count of +30. Under the KO system you would bet a middle unit amount. But under true counting KO you would bet just one unit because your true count would be at zero.