Can someone give me some advise

[sagefr0g]

While I think it may be markedly less effective in the shoe game, the "watch the cards" method CAN be used to gain an advantage in single deck if it's done right.

yeah well i'd certainly never recommend it but truthfully i wouldn't recommend card counting either. i do enjoy musing about these things though and discussing it all. even though i've done both and probably will do more in the future lol. for me i think the fuzzy approach gives you the most bang for the effort as far as deciding to wong in or out. but it can also be a source of information regarding your decision to make a greater gamble or not.
certainly isn't as exact a science as card counting. but then card counting is a limited science as well. once you master card counting then as far as card counting goes you've reached the limit of the skill. with the fuzzy approach regarding skill i guess there is always room for improvement. lol

 

[InPlay]

yeah well i'd certainly never recommend it but truthfully i wouldn't recommend card counting either. i do enjoy musing about these things though and discussing it all. even though i've done both and probably will do more in the future lol. for me i think the fuzzy approach gives you the most bang for the effort as far as deciding to wong in or out. but it can also be a source of information regarding your decision to make a greater gamble or not.
certainly isn't as exact a science as card counting. but then card counting is a limited science as well. once you master card counting then as far as card counting goes you've reached the limit of the skill. with the fuzzy approach regarding skill i guess there is always room for improvement. lol

Next level's will be the Psychic Level 1, 2, and 3! Talk about bang for the buck! Just wait for the moment you get a pair of 2 against the dealers 10 and you split them. First 2 you get a 9 then double down get a monkey for 21. Next set 2 then a 8, double down get a ACE for 21. Dealer flips up a face for 20. He then just looks at you puzzled and not knowing what to say. You just sit there with a big grin on your face. That's when you know you have reached PSYCHIC LEVEL 3! What a rush! :grin:

 

[aslan]

Even if Carmine never loses it back (good luck to ya, bub), then the casino would still wecome him, and other large betting non advantage-playing players with open arms. The vast majority will lose money, and this is how the casino turns the lights on.

Unless you're at the Barbary Coast or something.

Don't leave us hanging. So what if you are at the Barbary Coast!?

 

[aslan]

Next level's will be the Psyhic Level 1, 2, and 3! Talk about bang for the buck! Just wait for the moment you get a pair of 2 against the dealers 10 and you split them. First 2 you get a 9 then double down get a monkey for 21. Next set 2 then a 8, double down get a ACE for 21. Dealer flips up a face for 20. He then just looks at you puzzled and not knowing what to say. You just sit there with a big grin on your face. That's when you know you have reached PSYHIC LEVEL 3! What a rush! :grin:

Nearly everytime I get a hunch to hit a hard 17, a 4 or 3 comes up next. Not being a lunatic, I have never hit a hard 17, nor do I intend to until I have reached the million dollar mark anyway. lol But there has to be something to the pyschic stuff; you just can't depend on it.

 

[sagefr0g]

Nearly everytime I get a hunch to hit a hard 17, a 4 or 3 comes up next. Not being a lunatic, I have never hit a hard 17, nor do I intend to until I have reached the million dollar mark anyway. lol But there has to be something to the pyschic stuff; you just can't depend on it.

and of course if you did infact hit the hard 17 well we know what would happen in that case. it's errie. been my experience that luck usually sneaks up on you when least expected.

 

[aslan]

and of course if you did infact hit the hard 17 well we know what would happen in that case. it's errie. been my experience that luck usually sneaks up on you when least expected.

Isn't that the truth! :laugh:

 

[Carmine782]

yes believe in the math of the game and maybe a little bit of voodoo lol

as far as "watching" the cards, er well this was a trial of something similar what i call fuzzy counting with perfect basic strategy and I8 and there was even some steaming in this a few times lol......
this was circa 128 hours play or 12800 hands. s-17.8d.doa,das,Ls no double on split aces, spit to 4 hands and about 1.5 pen. with four other players and going to two hands at will.

I like to say I appreciate everyone's thoughts and replys. and i never realized my post would generate such debate My next session is probaly going to be soon, , so I'll see what happens, and if you guys are interested Ill let you know.

I am curious about one thing,

sagefr0g: is that some kind of simulation software you ran there? Where can I obtain that? Is there any way you can run a simulation based on what im doing, I know i wont have an advantage, Im interested to know if the overall house edge is decreased any. The game im playing is 6 Decks, Dealer Stands on all 17's, DAS, Spilt up to 4 Hands, Re-Spilt Aces are allowed, Double on any first two cards. Penitration is about 2 Decks Left. No Mid Shoe Entry.


Carmine.

 

[InPlay]

I like to say I appreciate everyone's thoughts and replys. and i never realized my post would generate such debate My next session is probaly going to be soon, , so I'll see what happens, and if you guys are interested Ill let you know.

I am curious about one thing,

sagefr0g: is that some kind of simulation software you ran there? Where can I obtain that? Is there any way you can run a simulation based on what im doing, I know i wont have an advantage, Im interested to know if the overall house edge is decreased any. The game im playing is 6 Decks, Dealer Stands on all 17's, DAS, Spilt up to 4 Hands, Re-Spilt Aces are allowed, Double on any first two cards. Penitration is about 2 Decks Left. No Mid Shoe Entry.


Carmine.

Try this course and see how it works out it might help. I would like to know the results after 500 hands.
http://www.silvaultramindsystem.com/lp/psychic

 

[sagefr0g]

.......I am curious about one thing,

sagefr0g: is that some kind of simulation software you ran there? Where can I obtain that? Is there any way you can run a simulation based on what im doing, I know i wont have an advantage, Im interested to know if the overall house edge is decreased any. The game im playing is 6 Decks, Dealer Stands on all 17's, DAS, Spilt up to 4 Hands, Re-Spilt Aces are allowed, Double on any first two cards. Penitration is about 2 Decks Left. No Mid Shoe Entry.


Carmine.

yes it's some statistics and graphs from simulation software. i've got cvbj and cvcx. they are available here on this website.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/casino-verite-blackjack-software.html

i used to think that it wasn't possible to run a simulation on card watching or on 'fuzzy counting'. but recently i realized that for the cvcx simulations for example one could tinker with the custom bets in various ways that could give you expected results for the way that a fuzzy counters bets may stray from the optimal bets as portrayed by the given simulation. tinker with those custom bets enough and i suspect that one could at least roughly estimate the expectation that a fuzzy counter might achieve.
there is also another blacjack simulation software that i have called sage blacjack (Dead link: http://www.s-a-g-e.com/) (no relation i swear lol ) for which you can run as many simulations as you desire with differant sized bets at the various true counts so that it would be possible to find some average advantage one might achieve according to how you believe your bets may fluctuate from the optimal bets of an orthodox counter.
also with the cvbj software you can play as many rounds as you wish, perhaps let us say about a N0's worth of play. but what is good about it is you can have the software configured so that it keeps a log of what the TC is at the time you make any given bet. so what you can do is examine the log and see how your big bets, ect correlate to the true count. that way you can see if you are even comming close to making proper bet decisions.
you could then take this information and use it with cvcx to tinker with the custom bets so as to see what expected advantage you are playing at.
well anyway these are just my thoughts on your question and i hope you take all that with a grain of salt. i'm no expert for sure and wouldn't want to lead you astray. perhaps others on the forum will comment and possibly find some error as far as what i've said.
oh yeah, and i just wanted to say that i think it is possible that you may be playing with a small advantage as you describe your play. but i'm really not sure.

 

[Beast]

Hi,

It is almost a certainty that playing this "fuzzy" counting will lose especially in shoes. I had a good friend that lost everything he had doing this including a branch of businesses.....a real shame. Single deck might be an exception especially if you use what is called a card counter's basic strategy which includes plays like always standing on 16vT. I wish you the best of luck.

Beast

 

[aslan]

Hi,

It is almost a certainty that playing this "fuzzy" counting will lose especially in shoes. I had a good friend that lost everything he had doing this including a branch of businesses.....a real shame. Single deck might be an exception especially if you use what is called a card counter's basic strategy which includes plays like always standing on 16vT. I wish you the best of luck.

Beast

But Basic Strategy for single deck says to hit on 16vT. Standing on 16vT is an index play at positive counts. Is that what you meant?

 

[sagefr0g]

Hi,

It is almost a certainty that playing this "fuzzy" counting will lose especially in shoes. I had a good friend that lost everything he had doing this including a branch of businesses.....a real shame. Single deck might be an exception especially if you use what is called a card counter's basic strategy which includes plays like always standing on 16vT. I wish you the best of luck.

Beast

well that is a sad story indeed. it's like i said before i'd never recommend to anyone 'fuzzy' counting or even card counting for that matter.
the story of your friend however is anectdotal. it's not that i'm saying one should ignore such stories either. if you think about it even 200 million round simulations are anectdotal to some degree. that all not withstanding whether it be 'fuzzy' counting, card counting or some other AP method there is going to be some mathematical risk of ruin associated known or unknown. ROR is usually expressed as a percentage so that what it means to an individual player is IMHO somewhat nebulous. to me it would have more meaning if you looked at it as a contest between 100 players. then for example if you expect say a ROR = 13% you could expect that 13 of those players are going to be utterly ruined. but even then what you have is only theoretical. point being how does one know that one wont be one of the unlucky 13? remmember they all play perfectly.
these considerations bring about one of my main beefs with orthodox card counting. that being the idea of robotic play according to what would match some known simulation that has realized advantageous results. yes such an approach should propel one to realizing the fruits of that advantage but to just mindlessly persist in robotic play with no monitoring of the bottom line and no thoughts as to the possibility of fixing a situation gone wrong, whatever seems to me an act of folly that could well lead to results as aggrevious that your freind encoutered.
all of this leads into another area that i for one find nebulous indeed. that being the idea of playing with a bankroll that if lost would have no impact on ones financial well being and that one would be willing to lose. this is one of those concepts that one thinks one has a grasp on before the fact and then after the fact one realizes that one didn't really understand the gravity of the concept such as in the case where one indeed does lose all of that bankroll or a significant portion there of.
at my age i can put forth an anectodotal statement that i'd be willing to wager a gamble on and that is that in the real world when you try and do something constructive (ie. that builds rather than destroys) such an endeavor no matter how simple it seems is bound to allways be rife with difficulties and set backs. it only seems reasonable that succeeding in blackjack would be even harder.

 

[Kasi]

Nearly everytime I get a hunch to hit a hard 17, a 4 or 3 comes up next. Not being a lunatic, I have never hit a hard 17....

Hey - just play a little Spanish 21 and you get to hit a hard 17 and it's still Basic Strategy

With the added benefit, it really seems to piss people off

 

[Beast]

But Basic Strategy for single deck says to hit on 16vT. Standing on 16vT is an index play at positive counts. Is that what you meant?

I think you have the right idea...16vT is a very close BS play where you always stand on any positive count. That being said if one is betting higher in positive counts than negative ones it makes more sense and money to always stand if not using index numbers. I did a google search and found a counter's BS chart.... http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/blackjack/strategy-cards.html

Best,

Beast

 

[Kasi]

these considerations bring about one of my main beefs with orthodox card counting. that being the idea of robotic play according to what would match some known simulation that has realized advantageous results. yes such an approach should propel one to realizing the fruits of that advantage but to just mindlessly persist in robotic play with no monitoring of the bottom line and no thoughts as to the possibility of fixing a situation gone wrong, whatever seems to me an act of folly that could well lead to results as aggrevious that your freind encoutered.../QUOTE]

Just one of many reasons you are the Wise Frog

 

[Kasi]

I think you have the right idea...16vT is a very close BS play where you always stand on any positive count. That being said if one is betting higher in positive counts than negative ones it makes more sense and money to always stand if not using index numbers. I did a google search and found a counter's BS chart.... http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/blackjack/strategy-cards.html

Well, here's my 2 cents, if a BS player.

Always hit a 2-card 16 vs 10. Always stand on 3-or-more-card 16's vs 10.

Even better, learn the 3-card hands that you are better off hitting vs standing.

And the advice won't be worth 2 cents for a long time lol.

 

[aslan]

Well, here's my 2 cents, if a BS player.

Always hit a 2-card 16 vs 10. Always stand on 3-or-more-card 16's vs 10.

Even better, learn the 3-card hands that you are better off hitting vs standing.

And the advice won't be worth 2 cents for a long time lol.

What are the correct 3-card hits and stands for BS? For TC+5 and above?

 

[Kasi]

What are the correct 3-card hits and stands for BS? For TC+5 and above?

For 8D S17 I think BS is hit vs 10
10,4,2
10,3,3
9,6,A
8,6,2
7,6,3
6,6,4

Same thing for 4D except stand on the 10,4,2.

For 8D S17, BS is hit

10,2,2,2
9,3,2,2
8,6,A,A
7,6,2,A
6,6,3,A
6,6,2,2
3,A,A,A
2,2,A,A


If you're counting, do what it says lol.

 

[aslan]

For 8D S17 I think BS is hit vs 10
10,4,2
10,3,3
9,6,A
8,6,2
7,6,3
6,6,4

Same thing for 4D except stand on the 10,4,2.

For 8D S17, BS is hit

10,2,2,2
9,3,2,2
8,6,A,A
7,6,2,A
6,6,3,A
6,6,2,2
3,A,A,A
2,2,A,A


If you're counting, do what it says lol.

Presumably, these are the hits for 3-card 16s, and the inference is to stand on every 3-card 16 not mentioned, e.g., 10,5,1 or 9,5,2. Same for the 4-card 16s. Right? But for TC+5, do whatever the indices for counters indicate. Right? Okay.

 

[Carmine782]

Hey Everyone! Just got back form the Casino, doing the same "Watching the cards" Strategy, Won $15,000 I mad a table max bet of $5,000 about maybe 6 hands into my final shoe, still should i be worried about heat form the casino? I dont want them think im card counting when im not.