can someone with access to CVCX do me a favor?

[rukus]

I've been bored the last few days and decided to try and replicate the optimal bet ramp calculator in CVCX by using CVData to output sim results and my proprietary spreadsheet to calc the optimal ramp. I want to check my results --


Rules/Conditions:
using original 1DTC Zen count, wonging out at -2 (not sure if you need this but i used 1/2 deck resolution (rounding) and TC flooring), bet spread of 1-12 (just one hand, i'll try and build in 2/3/4x hand capability next), 6D, DOA, DAS, 75% pen, no surrender.

I don't need the whole ramp (that would just make me a moocher ) but I do want to confirm the point of placing the max bet. My spreadsheet finds it to be somehwere above +9 and this seems pretty high to me as I've always placed max bets at +6). Can someone with 5 minutes to spare just confirm or correct this max bet TC according to CVCX?

Let me know if you need any more information.

Thanks!
Rukus

 

[Kasi]

Can someone with 5 minutes to spare just confirm or correct this max bet TC according to CVCX?

Let me think - proprietary spreadsheet vs CVCX?

Whatever you told CVCX to do, it's the right answer. Have faith.

Possibly consider Powersim (free) to answer your questions and compare your sheet to. That'd be like no mooching at all.

Or, if your sheet can handle a more generic question using say Hi-Lo, and you want to compare it to Powersim results, I could probably help you a little but I'm not going to worry about half-decks, rounding etc because I don't feel like looking up the underlying assumptions, let alone that count you're using.

Would you want people to ask you to use your proprietary sheet on their behalf?

I suspect your sheet is worthless anyway without sim results.

I'll even look at your sheet if you want. If you can stand the risk I promise I won't sell it to anyone. Trust me - I really don't want to be sued if anyone relied on it and it turned out it wasn't right.

 

[rukus]

Let me think - proprietary spreadsheet vs CVCX?

Whatever you told CVCX to do, it's the right answer. Have faith.

i don't have CVCX, hence the point of me asking a favor.

Possibly consider Powersim (free) to answer your questions and compare your sheet to. That'd be like no mooching at all.

I have CVData, I do not need another free simulator, unless you tell me it calculates optimal ramps given a min/max spread like CVCX - does it? I don't think so.

Or, if your sheet can handle a more generic question using say Hi-Lo, and you want to compare it to Powersim results, I could probably help you a little but I'm not going to worry about half-decks, rounding etc because I don't feel like looking up the underlying assumptions, let alone that count you're using.

My sheet can handle any count system, it just relies on any flat betting simulator output (like that of, say, CVData).

Would you want people to ask you to use your proprietary sheet on their behalf?

People ask about (for instance) various types of trip or instantaneous risk of ruin all the time; my sheet handles this, and I indeed provide answers to people on this.

I suspect your sheet is worthless anyway without sim results.

That is the whole point. I have a powerful simulator already.

I'll even look at your sheet if you want. If you can stand the risk I promise I won't sell it to anyone. Trust me - I really don't want to be sued if anyone relied on it and it turned out it wasn't right.

No thanks - in the time it took you to reply in the manner you have (without understanding what I am asking for), had you had CVCX, you could have provided the ONE number I was looking for.

Just to clarify, I am NOT looking for simlator output. I am looking for one number only - what true count CVCX dictates as the optimal time to wager a max bet under the conditions I provided in the original post.

Can someone do me this quick favor? Pretty please, with a cherry on top. (72 views, no responses?)

 

[QFIT]

Serious Blackjack Software​

 

[rukus]

Norm, you are great

Thanks very much for this! Also thanks to Nightspirit for his PM on this as well. Good news is I match the ramp for the most part (and the TC of Max bet placement). I don't match exactly since I use a subset of the full indices and thus my %advantage and std dev at each TC differ from the canned full index sims. Again, I appreciate the help from both of you.

One last request - can you provide this same screen shot with the "play two hands" option selected? I want to make sure I correctly account for covariance.

 

[QFIT]

[/url]​

 

[sagefr0g]

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is this cvcx ? if so must be a differant version than mine. or is this with cvdata?

 

[QFIT]

is this cvcx ? if so must be a differant version than mine. or is this with cvdata?

This is CVCX V4. I completely redesigned the interface in V4. Actually, you design it yourself. You control which 'widgets' (square boxes with stats) are displayed and where they are displayed.

 

[rukus]

thanks Norm, really appreciate it. i'm away from my home computer right now, but this looks about what i got. Btw, CVCX looks phenominal - i might have to put all my spreadsheets away and pick up a copy of this new version as well.

again, appreciate it very much. good cards to everyone playing this weekend.

 

[Kasi]

I have CVData, I do not need another free simulator, unless you tell me it calculates optimal ramps given a min/max spread like CVCX - does it? I don't think so.

You're right - I didn't realize you had sim results. That's all you really need I think.

In which case - have faith in your spreadsheet! If yours says +9 and CVCX says +12, it's probably like you say - different underlying assumptions of indexes etc. It sounds like you still believe the slight differences between your sheet and CVCX are because CVCX is assuming something different than the output from CVData that you are relying on.

And if Norm doesn't mind sharing, I sure don't lol. I guess it's not like you asked for the discs and promised not to look at anything else except the point of max bet and never use it again. So maybe, probably, me bad lol. It ain't my software.

FWIW, I think Powersim purports to calculate an optimal fixed spread entering anywhere you want. As near as I can tell, it does. I don't think it can easily handle spreading to multiple hands and you'd likely have to mess around with the count tags and indexes associated with your count system etc. And, like I said, I'm not sure about flooring vs rounding or estimate of remaining decks. I think it might, by default, calc TC by actual cards remaining. But not sure. Might at least be worth a look.

I think Norm thinks there are some flaws in it - any input on that would be appreciated.

And, if you don't already hate my guts, and find it in your heart to help my non-proprietary sheet out lol, if your sheet has a formula that computes the chances of reaching Goal G by Time T before B=0, given the usual per-hand ev and variance in units, I'd be forever grateful.

And good cards to you.

 

[QFIT]

FWIW, I think Powersim purports to calculate an optimal fixed spread entering anywhere you want. As near as I can tell, it does. I don't think it can easily handle spreading to multiple hands and you'd likely have to mess around with the count tags and indexes associated with your count system etc. And, like I said, I'm not sure about flooring vs rounding or estimate of remaining decks. I think it might, by default, calc TC by actual cards remaining. But not sure. Might at least be worth a look.

I think Norm thinks there are some flaws in it - any input on that would be appreciated.

Powersim doesn't even calc TC correctly. There is an article by the author that contains my name 28 (twenty-eight) times. It is a shameful document filled with numerous misquotes, misrepresentations and outright libelous statements. It is posted where I am not allowed to respond to any of the lies.

 

[rukus]

don't worry, no hard feelings

And, if you don't already hate my guts, and find it in your heart to help my non-proprietary sheet out lol, if your sheet has a formula that computes the chances of reaching Goal G by Time T before B=0, given the usual per-hand ev and variance in units, I'd be forever grateful.

the problem with that goal reaching formula is that it has an infinite series that as far as i can tell does not reduce down to some closed-form solution (someone correct me on that if i am wrong, as i gave up after an hour or so of trying to solve it). therefore i do not have a simple one-line formula to give you thats solve it. i had to write some VBA code into my spreadsheet to estimate the result of that formula (to 0.00001% precision). however if you PM over the per-hand EV, variance, and BR, i have no problem giving you a matrix of possibilities dependent on Goal and Time. FYI, CVData calculates it for you as well (as well as all of the other formula's that Don gives in his risk of ruin chapter of BJA3).

 

[QFIT]

the problem with that goal reaching formula is that it has an infinite series that as far as i can tell does not reduce down to some closed-form solution (someone correct me on that if i am wrong, as i gave up after an hour or so of trying to solve it). therefore i do not have a simple one-line formula to give you thats solve it. i had to write some VBA code into my spreadsheet to estimate the result of that formula (to 0.00001% precision). however if you PM over the per-hand EV, variance, and BR, i have no problem giving you a matrix of possibilities dependent on Goal and Time. FYI, CVData calculates it for you as well (as well as all of the other formula's that Don gives in his risk of ruin chapter of BJA3).

As do my free online calculators at http://www.card-counting.com/blackjack-calculators.htm

Card-Counting.com​

 

[Kasi]

Powersim doesn't even calc TC correctly. There is an article by the author that contains my name 28 (twenty-eight) times. It is a shameful document filled with numerous misquotes, misrepresentations and outright libelous statements. It is posted where I am not allowed to respond to any of the lies.

Thanks for your input. If such article is where I think it may be, never been there anyway or read it lol.

I've only used it a few times recently after downloading it on a whim and don't know a whole lot about it. I thought I had it get reasonably close to a line in one of Don's/your tables.

God bless America and free speech lol.

 

[Kasi]

the problem with that goal reaching formula is that it has an infinite series that as far as i can tell does not reduce down to some closed-form solution (someone correct me on that if i am wrong, as i gave up after an hour or so of trying to solve it). therefore i do not have a simple one-line formula to give you thats solve it. .

Thanks. That sounds like exactly what happened to me lol.

But that's cool you could write a VBA script that does it.

I know Norm's software does it and his calculators do it. Like you, perhaps, I like to see if I can come up with the same answer as his calculators which I do for a lot of them. But not that one lol.

So thanks for your offer and I'l keep it in mind in case I really need a specific answer sometime but I had no specific game in mind. Just a hole that needs filling lol.

And very glad there are no hard feelings. So sorry I took the wrong slant on your original question and thanks for dishing it right back at me lol. Nuf said!