can spanish21 be beaten?

[FLASH1296]

Span21 is a HORRID choice of games for a newbie Card Counter.

It is much much too complex:

As far as Kat W.'s book is concerned — the card counting advice is good enough but not optimal. She mostly focuses on H17 games (and even Australian Pontoon.)

A game with a $100 Max you are not expected to go above $50 or so unless you are drunk, retarded, or "steaming", chasing your losses.

If you ever bet 2 x $100 I can virtually assure you that even a little rural sawdust joint will move the cut card until they are at 50% penetration — removing any advantage you may have.

Casinos ALL have what they call "choke points." Levels of betting at which the Pitt Boss MUST be notified by the floor person supervising the game, and a level at which the Casino Shift Manager needed to be notified. Most typically, these are set at a substantial fraction of the Table Max, and the Table Max respectively. Betting double the Table Max always means that you are threatening to put the table "in the red". (I assume that you know that the casino has to pay a monthly fee to Masque Publishing™ for each table.)

On the East Coast and in Canada the Span21 games are 8 decks with S17.

The S17 rule in this game is even more crucial than in BJ.

The 8 deckers that I have been playing for the last few days have a House Advantage of
just .32%, whereas the low-stakes BJ tables in A.C. are H17 8 deckers with a H. A. of .66%.

The learning curve for Span21 is long and steep.

Bankroll requirements are much higher than in BJ

The game is slow but heat is very low.

Basic Strategy Deviations are MUCH more important than in ordinary multi-deck BJ

IF you begin by reviewing the data at wizardofodds.com you will get a
glimpse of what it takes, but here are a few things to mull over.

In S17 Span21 the following are all true (Basic Strategy)

The worst possible hand matchup, and hence the only basic strategy Late surrender is a Hard 17 vs. ACE.

Correct (rare) play - you HIT your Hard 17 vs. 9, X, A if you have a 6 cards.

You do not split 4's or double on 9 vs. 5 or less.

You split 7's vs low cards - unless suited.

You will need to learn MANY indices for the play of your hands. I suggest that about 40 are important.

Just for Hard 17 vs. Ace there are SEVERAL different indices:

Hit/Stand (3 card 17)
Hit/Stand (2 card 17)
Late Surrender / Hit (2 card)
"Double Down Rescue" (surrendering after a double)

MANY indices need to be adjusted for play of the cards if the hand contains 3 or 4 or 5 cards.

e.g. 11 v. Ace (or 10 or 9) you do NOT double with 3 cards.

etc. etc. etc.

 

[red_falcon]

Hi Flash1296,

Good to know!!! I did play a few hands and surrendered hard 17 vs A. People around me did give out weird looks, but hey, it happens, lol.

Which 40 indices are you referring to? Is it like the Illustrious 18??

Red.

 

[blackriver]

i would think having a 17/11 made of 4/3 cards would make you less likely to improve since there are now 4/3 less small cards in the deck. If you have 17 and your 4th card (and really any) is 2 or 3 you are less likely to draw a 2 or 3 respectively since 2s and 3s tend to not follow eachother due to splitting. this would make doubling 11 even better too. this makes it less likely the dealer has a bust card, but it makes them more likely to bust if they draw. intuition is not doing me right here. i guess the effect of the dealer drawing less just trumps everything else

 

[FLASH1296]

blackriver — pulleeze do not post "voodoo" nonsense here

as you did re: drawing consecutive deuces.

You are doing a disservice, and that is not at all appropriate.

 

[FLASH1296]

As far as what indices are needed, basically you must know when
to late surrender and the indices down to −6 and up to a +3 using
Kat's unbalanced level one count; the equivalent of a Hi-Lo
-2 to +7.

You must "overlearn" all of the indices for your stiffs and hard
doubles, while soft doubles and pair-splits are not so important.

Insurance you would take at Kat's +12 — and you will rarely use that.
That index is not in Kat's text.

 

[red_falcon]

Hi Flash1296,

Would learning the indices be necessary at disadvantageous counts? During that time, you would putting down on the the table minimum right?

What do you mean by "overlearn" for indices? I'm guessing it's the same examples u mentioned earlier (Surrender/stand, and hit/stand like for 17 vs A?).

Thanks again for your useful comments and advice.

Red.

 

[FLASH1296]

One would think that negative indices are of lesser importance than positive indices, but that would be incorrect in many cases. The negative indices down to −7 (Kat Count) need to be learned, because of the high frequency of their occurrence. Note that in ordinary BJ, the illustrious 18 includes some negative indices.

While "overlearn" is not an actual word, in our vernacular it means to learn something so well that you recall it instantly, without any delay in recall. It means that if I wake you from a deep sleep and scream at you "10 vs. 9" you will respond correctly before you open your eyes.

… :whip:

 

[red_falcon]

Hi Flash 1296,

BS and 40 indices are quite a feat to remember. Can you suggest any ideas to learn them efficiently?

Deck estimation is another issue altogether. Since the 10's are removed, how do you estimate, especially near the end of the shoe? I suppose playing normal BJ and Spanish S17 will really screw things up if you play both.

Red.

 

[FLASH1296]

Basic Strategy and your Basic Strategy Departure Indices are best learned via whatever route suits [Uyou[/U] learning style best.

For most people the time-honored Flash Card methodology generally works best.

RE: Deck Estimation

If you are already experienced at estimating decks of cards, then you need to be aware that removing 4 of every 13 cards results in a reduction in height of 4/52 cards. That is 8.33% smaller than a blackjack deck. An 8 deck shoe would lack 32 cards, thus it would be 384 cards, as opposed to 416 cards. The equivalent of 7 ⅜ (52 card) decks. So … you adjust visually in accordance with that slimmer 48 card deck.

A good newbie exercise is to obtain a supply of decks; and remove the 10's. "Dollar Stores" often sell a variety of used casino cards for a buck apiece. Then rubber-band the cards into bundles of 12, 24, 48 cards to demonstrate the apparent size of ¼, ½. and 1 deck. Then do the same with 96 and 72 cards, representing 2 and 3 decks. Spend some quality time with these decks. Observe them from distances equal to that of the distance from the discard tray to 1st base and 3rd base. Throw them about. Stare at the stacks of cards stacked at different heights. Then, when you can close your eyes and visualize a stack of 3 decks in ½ deck increments — you can move onto the next step. Take a deck and grab ¼ of a deck off the top and then grab a half deck. What remains should be ¼ deck, ½ deck, and another ¼ deck. When you can do this within 1 card of the fractions almost always, proceed to doing similarly with a 6 deck stack "grabbing" one deck at a time until all 6 decks are separated. Count them for accuracy. In a few days you will be excellent at determining your True Counts.

 

[red_falcon]

Hi Flash1296.

I'm still working on those exercises you suggested. They have flashcards online it seems, but only for normal BJ illustrious 18. Are these cards (apart from different indices) applicable to S17?

Thanks again for your help, it is greatly appreciated.

Red.

 

[FLASH1296]

You NEED to create them yourself, because the process of creating them adds to your learning.

Make them small so that a pack of them fits easily in your pocket.

 

[Zach Black]

Introduction / Spanish questions

I've been lurking on this for the last 5 months and have been impressed with the knowledge of the membership. I travel frequently for business and have been able to play many of the western states in this time.

I've built a 1000 unit bankroll over the last 6 months, with some postive variance as a red chipper in 200 hours of play (started with 200 units). I've been playing with hi lo aggressive back-counting /wonging out as the places I play have poor rules 6D H17 DAS, RSA, but good pen. Since I play DD when its available I've learned about 100 indices for S17.

I found out recently that I will spend the summer in a location with many Spanish H17 DDD tables and some BJ tables really crappy rules.

I'd like to learn to play Spanish, but I don't want to play at a disadvantage.
I understand some hands have four indices, that are dependent on the number of cards so the optimal strategy is very complicated.

So I've ordered, Katrina Walker's book, I've printed out the BS charts on the wizzard's site, and found a game to play on line with these charts.
I've also began going throuh the posts on this site and the GC site. I understand the kat count is based on hi/low with a negative offset based on the removal of 10's. I plan on learning the I18 equivalent before ever playing. When I get the book I will plug the indices into a flash card program I have.

Is it likely that I turn a profit with BS (and maybe bring a strategy card that I will generate) and spread to 5-10 times my min bet in proprotionate to my advantage based on the TC?

If I use redouble to full advantage, and my limited bankroll, my RoR is high.
If I have a 10 unit bet, double to 20 units, redouble to 40 units, my BR may not survive. Is this game playable with an advantge with my BR?

Any suggestions to improve my chances?

Thanks
Zach

 

[Zach Black]

Spanish

I left out the game I would play is 6D version

 

[assume_R]

Indices will depend on the available bonuses for a given hand, so yes, there are actually 7 indices for hands totaling 13 - 15, for example (14v4, 6,8vs4, 6,8 suited vs 4, 6,8 spaded vs 4, 4-card 14 vs 4, 5 card 14 vs 4, 6+ card 14 vs 4).

Kat's book will answer all your questions. But you also need to read blackjack books to understand the importance of wonging, penetration, etc., all of which apply to this game.

Redoubling makes the variance very high so even more aggressive wonging will be needed.

 

[FLASH1296]

1,000 units is adequate.

 

[Zach Black]

spanish

Assume_R; Thanks for the feedback.

I've been agressive about wonging and leave at TC=-1 in 6D blackjack. Also have some good oportunites backcounting and jumping in when conditions are good at big casino's.

At the casino's I will be playing, I've watched the SP21 table as I back counted the BJ. The SP21 is busier than blackjack with mostly older asian women and the games rarely have an open spot in prime time. I think I will not get many chances to wong-in while backcounting during the time I will be able to play.

If I wong out too frequently then I will spend most of my time looking for a empty spot to play. When I this happens in BJ I leave.

I understand pen in BJ and the place I will be playing in SP21 cuts off one deck in a 6D shoe. I've seen 0.7 deck cuts with some dealers.

Zach

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...Redoubling makes the variance very high so even more aggressive wonging will be needed.

And/or lots of doubling indices. It's only a redouble game when you choose it to be.

But for any H17 game I'd recommend being someplace else when the count drops.

 

[assume_R]

And/or lots of doubling indices. It's only a redouble game when you choose it to be.

Yes, you'll be doubling your 6's, 7's and 8's more against dealer 4,5,6's because if you happen to get a 10 or 11, you'll have a chance to double again, hence getting even more money out on a possible 20 or 21 vs 4,5,6.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Yes, you'll be doubling your 6's, 7's and 8's more against dealer 4,5,6's because if you happen to get a 10 or 11, you'll have a chance to double again, hence getting even more money out on a possible 20 or 21 vs 4,5,6.

Really, those are retrograde doubling indices? I can see how a low count can increase the chances of getting a redouble, but it will also increase the chance of the dealer pulling his hand out. But I haven't researched that game very much, for the obvious geographical reason.

 

[jnrwilliam]

Really, those are retrograde doubling indices? I can see how a low count can increase the chances of getting a redouble, but it will also increase the chance of the dealer pulling his hand out. But I haven't researched that game very much, for the obvious geographical reason.

IMHO:
the higher the TC, the higher EV of re-DD-----more likely to get a 10s
also in high TC, less occ. of 5+6, 4+7 to DD but higher chance to get 10.

less occ but higher success rate is rather than high occ but low succ rate.

welcome to correct me if i'm wrong.