xengrifter said:
A 1 to 5 spread play all on 6 deck standard rules ....
.... Is that even a break-even proposition?
Yes,
IF you are escaping at least some of the negative counts....That is the key. It really doesn't take that much to flip a standard half percent negative game, to positive, if you get out of the worst of the negative counts.
I started in Atlantic City, with a $5-$30 spread. That is 1-6 but the games were 8 deck, which means even fewer plus and max bet frequencies and, I was able to flip the game to a winning game and slowly build my bankroll. I mean, it took a hell of a long time as my EV was less than minimum wage which was $5 back then. But it was positive EV.
I'll repeat another example that I have told before. A few years later, after I had finally moved up in stakes, Borgata was the top game in my Atlantic City rotation, because it was 6 decks. I played there alot (too much, which is why I lost Atlantic City), and I would see some of the same players alot. One was an older gentleman, I am going to say 70ish (no offense to anyone in that age range....just a description). He was spreading $25 -$75 and he was max betting his $75 even kind of late, like tc +4 / +5 range.
So I saw the gent frequently on the train to Philly which was my regular mode of transportation. He got off at the Egg harbor stop which was about 1/2 from AC, where as I went on to Philly. So one day, I was sitting across the aisle and moved over and sat next to him, introduced myself and struck up a conversation about our blackjack play. He told me that he used to spread 1-5 red chip but that spreading 1-3 green earned him much more comps, with out much change in risk. That's what he was really after, the comps as he ate lunch for free every day. He was a widower got out and got a free lunch and made a few bucks.
I agreed the comps were probably better playing green than red, but argued that at a 1-3 spread he was playing a losing game, which would basically mean he was paying for those comped meals. He assured me I was wrong and that with frequent bathroom breaks on some of the negative counts, he was earning $6-7 an hour, while getting the much better comps. I was sure he was wrong and politely argued as much.
When I got home, I broke out Normy software and played around a bit, setting different exit points on negative counts and to my surprise, I think I was able to get the win rate up just shy of $6, just below what he assured me. Close enough that I will declare he was right and I was wrong.
Moral of the story is what I started off with. It just doesn't take all that much to flip a half percent negative game (standard rules) to a slightly positive game,
IF you are escaping at least some of the negative counts...the worst of the negative counts. Now of course a positive EV game and a game worthwhile are 2 different things entirely. There aren't going to be many players willing to spread green and the variance that goes with that for $5-$6 an hour in EV. And there aren't many players that are going to be willing to grind a small spread playing red, as Lucky Stars is talking about and I did early in my career for just a few bucks EV. That is the ultimate in grinding!
