Change in EV for Ace removal at beginning of deal

[LovinItAll]

This recently happened and I've been thinking about it since. If there's a way to set this up in CVData/CVCX, please let me know and I'll try to get the answer myself.

I was playing a D/D game and all 8 Aces were dealt during the first two rounds (two players + dealer). First hand, a player had A-2-A-2-A-2 (yes, player hit 17 by mistake...those tricky Aces). I had A-6-3. I think the dealer took one card (T-5-4, I think). Next hand, the dealer had 6 (A-A) and there were (2) BJ's. 19 cards in two rounds, ~75% pen, so we obviously had a bunch of hands left.

Anyone counting Hi-Lo would have been at -3, so it's not like the count tanked. In fact, the count was positive by my count two hands later (I don't SC A's). Since we rely on 3:2 payouts for a portion of our EV, how much was our loss of potential EV considering Ace removal? If system dependant, for H/L, Zen, and Halves.

Yes, I tried tracking the slug. I even had the cut card after the shuffle, though the strips looked like 2 cards each (I'm exaggerating, but...). I spread to two hands with 4 unit bets. Dealer received a BJ and most of the A's came out much later. I gotta work on that.

Thanks ~ L.I.A.

 

[MangoJ]

First hand, a player had A-2-A-2-A-2 (yes, player hit 17 by mistake...those tricky Aces). I had A-6-3. I think the dealer took one card (T-5-4, I think).

What is wrong about hitting soft 17 against 10 ?

 

[LovinItAll]

What is wrong about hitting soft 17 against 10 ?

Nothing at all....

The player said, "I didn't mean to hit 17". I wasn't even thinking about that aspect of the hand, actually.

 

[gronbog]

I was playing a D/D game and all 8 Aces were dealt during the first two rounds (two players + dealer). First hand, a player had A-2-A-2-A-2 (yes, player hit 17 by mistake...those tricky Aces). I had A-6-3. I think the dealer took one card (T-5-4, I think). Next hand, the dealer had 6 (A-A) and there were (2) BJ's. 19 cards in two rounds, ~75% pen, so we obviously had a bunch of hands left.

Anyone counting Hi-Lo would have been at -3, so it's not like the count tanked. In fact, the count was positive by my count two hands later (I don't SC A's). Since we rely on 3:2 payouts for a portion of our EV, how much was our loss of potential EV considering Ace removal? If system dependant, for H/L, Zen, and Halves.

You didn't say what your betting ramps would be for each of these counting systems, so I can't comment on the expected EV for those systems. I did, however run some sims to get the EV for flat betting under these conditions. Here's what I came up with:

- 2 full decks, S17, playing proper basic strategy: EV = -0.17%
- Exact card depletion outlined above, playing optimal strategy: EV = -1.59%
- Exact card depletion outlined above, playing basic strategy: EV = -1.81%
- Only Aces removed, playing optimal strategy: EV = -2.39%
- Only Aces removed, playing basic strategy: EV = -2.45%

Of course, the optimal strategy results are just for completeness. It is unlikely that anyone would know the optimal strategy for 2 decks, no aces and guaranteed that no one would know the optimal strategy for the exact deck depletion you described.

 

[bj bob]

Nothing at all....

The player said, "I didn't mean to hit 17". I wasn't even thinking about that aspect of the hand, actually.

You ALWAYS operate on an A-6, in other words, either hit it or double on it, never leave it alone.

 

[LovinItAll]

- 2 full decks, S17, playing proper basic strategy: EV = -0.17%
- Exact card depletion outlined above, playing optimal strategy: EV = -1.59%
- Exact card depletion outlined above, playing basic strategy: EV = -1.81%
- Only Aces removed, playing optimal strategy: EV = -2.39%
- Only Aces removed, playing basic strategy: EV = -2.45%

Thank you - I appreciate the analysis.

You ALWAYS operate on an A-6, in other words, either hit it or double on it, never leave it alone.

I know.

Thanks ~ L.I.A.