Comment on Keith Collins calculation

[iGamingPal]

As I read some messages on this board about using Keith Collins numbers as references for testing composition-dependent strategy calculation, I would like to point out to an exception:

For player's cards A,T in the Table 'Player Expected Values (in %)' in the row 'Stand' all values are 150.00. Of course the player cannot lose with blackjack, but when dealer has A or T - it could also be push. So the expected values (when dealer has A or T) must be smaller then 150.00

When dealer has T :
Push-probability = 06.1224%
Player-wins-probability = 93.8776%
So we get 140.8163 instead of 150.00

When dealer has A :
Push-probability = 30.6122%
Player-wins-probability = 69.3878%
So we get 104.0816 instead of 150.00

The numbers above are for the following game:
Decks - 1
BJ Odds - 3:2
S17 - [X]
ENHC - [X]
DOUBLING: DO2 [X]
Restrictions: H9-11 [X]
SPLITTING
Allowed splits aces - 1
Allowed splits 2-10 - 1
After splitting:
DAS - [ ]
HSA - [X]
SURRENDER
Not allowed vs 2-9 NS [X]
Not allowed vs Ace NS [X]
AUTO WINNER: None [X]

 

[iCountNTrack]

As I read some messages on this board about using Keith Collins numbers as references for testing composition-dependent strategy calculation, I would like to point out to an exception:

For player's cards A,T in the Table 'Player Expected Values (in %)' in the row 'Stand' all values are 150.00. Of course the player cannot lose with blackjack, but when dealer has A or T - it could also be push. So the expected values (when dealer has A or T) must be smaller then 150.00

When dealer has T :
Push-probability = 06.1224%
Player-wins-probability = 93.8776%
So we get 140.8163 instead of 150.00

When dealer has A :
Push-probability = 30.6122%
Player-wins-probability = 69.3878%
So we get 104.0816 instead of 150.00

The numbers above are for the following game:
Decks - 1
BJ Odds - 3:2
S17 - [X]
ENHC - [X]
DOUBLING: DO2 [X]
Restrictions: H9-11 [X]
SPLITTING
Allowed splits aces - 1
Allowed splits 2-10 - 1
After splitting:
DAS - [ ]
HSA - [X]
SURRENDER
Not allowed vs 2-9 NS [X]
Not allowed vs Ace NS [X]
AUTO WINNER: None [X]

Did you not notice that these expectation values are conditional that the dealer DOES NOT have a blackjack. For European no hole card games this option is trivial because the dealer does nto peek when he has an ace or a 10, but for American games the dealer does peek to check whether he has a 10 or ace in the hole.

 

[iGamingPal]

Did you not notice that these expectation values are conditional that the dealer DOES NOT have a blackjack. For European no hole card games this option is trivial because the dealer does nto peek when he has an ace or a 10, but for American games the dealer does peek to check whether he has a 10 or ace in the hole.

My comment IS for European no hole card game, so the dealer can have a blackjack. And that's why the EV must be smaller then 150.00

http://www.bjstrat.net/cdca_help.html
ENHC == European no hole card

 

[iCountNTrack]

My comment IS for European no hole card game, so the dealer can have a blackjack. And that's why the EV must be smaller then 150.00

http://www.bjstrat.net/cdca_help.html
ENHC == European no hole card

Did you carefully read my reply, you have to uncheck the option of displaying conditional expectations that dealer does not have a blackjack. I was saying this is important for american games only, forb european games it is not applicable because the dealer does not check for a blackjack

 

[k_c]

As I read some messages on this board about using Keith Collins numbers as references for testing composition-dependent strategy calculation, I would like to point out to an exception:

For player's cards A,T in the Table 'Player Expected Values (in %)' in the row 'Stand' all values are 150.00. Of course the player cannot lose with blackjack, but when dealer has A or T - it could also be push. So the expected values (when dealer has A or T) must be smaller then 150.00

When dealer has T :
Push-probability = 06.1224%
Player-wins-probability = 93.8776%
So we get 140.8163 instead of 150.00

When dealer has A :
Push-probability = 30.6122%
Player-wins-probability = 69.3878%
So we get 104.0816 instead of 150.00

The numbers above are for the following game:
Decks - 1
BJ Odds - 3:2
S17 - [X]
ENHC - [X]
DOUBLING: DO2 [X]
Restrictions: H9-11 [X]
SPLITTING
Allowed splits aces - 1
Allowed splits 2-10 - 1
After splitting:
DAS - [ ]
HSA - [X]
SURRENDER
Not allowed vs 2-9 NS [X]
Not allowed vs Ace NS [X]
AUTO WINNER: None [X]

There's a bug in the website program. For a single deck standing on a blackjack versus a ten should display 140.8% and versus an ace 104.1%. The desktop version displays this correctly. When ENHC is checked the display is the same whether or not dealer checks for blackjack because for ENHC it doesn't make sense to say dealer has first checked for blackjack.

I'll try and find out why the online program is displaying incorrectly and fix the problem.