Computer Sim for Progression Betting

[jack.jackson]

Does anyone know if one exists? I know that they all seem to be for card counting. A lost cause, perhaps, but I'd like to see for myself.

If i ever was to play against a csm i might resort to a progression!

Ive been experimenting with a positive progression, while counting against a six deck shoe games. And it seems to be working!

Check it out! Flat bet until you win a hand! Once you win bet 3 units, win again,bet 4 units, win again, bet 6 units, win or lose revert back to 1unit.
And start over.
Anytime you were to lose in the 3 steps revert back to 1 unit. Look how it stacks up against a flat bettor.[5.00 units]

                                                         *  oppossed to flat betting
            
            Flat betting                    progression                difference*
       1.  W     5.00                        W     5.00                   
                  
                                        bet [x3]  15.00
      2.  W,L   even                         W,L  -10.00                 -10.00
              
                                        bet [x4]  20.00
      3.  W,W,L 5.00                       W,W,L even                    -5.00
                          
                                         bet [x6]  30.00
     4.  W,W,W,L 10.00                    W,W,W,L 10.00                  0.00

        W,W,W,W 20.00                     W,W,W,W 70.00                  50.00

Step 1 is if we win a flat bet hand.

Remember, step 2 we triple our bet, and lose additional 10.00[2u] oppossed to flat betting. This is the downfall.

For example even if we lose step 3 we still break even on the trial and only lose additional 5.00 oppossed to if we were flat betting.

But look what happens even if you lose on step 4. You still win 10.00 the same amount if you were flat betting.

But look what happens if we win step 4. We win 70.00 opposed to 20.00 if we were flat betting a whopping 50.00 differnce.



I know about progression and they wont work in the long run. But if i was to use one. This is it. I use it with counting and start a 1 unit at beginning of each new shoe. And of course the higher your p.e the more hands you can
pull off. Also realize you have more winning streks of two hands in a row. Thats why i designed it the way that i did.
If anybody wants to run a sim of it. Please let me know how it does.

 

[Sonny]

Also realize you have more winning streks of two hands in a row.

Why do you say that? It seems like the most common streak would be winning one hand in a row. After all (and I hate to sound like a broken record) you are always more likely to lose the next hand. Because of this, a winning streak of 1 hand will happen more often than a winning streak of 2 hands. Unfortunately, that is the pattern that you recognize as the downfall of your system.

As far as progression systems go, the less volatile they are the safer they will be. A system that slowly raises the bets and quickly lowers them will be safer than a fast double-up scheme. But that’s the big compromise. People who use progression systems do it because flat betting is boring. If a progression system is too close to flat betting then people will not use it. It has to be volatile enough to be exciting yet innocent enough to be sensible.

At the end of the day you can expect the same results so I don't think spending too much time researching and developing these systems is really going to be rewarding.

-Sonny-

 

[dalexis]

Has anyone here tested the Star system for real in the casino? The author claims he's never lost his daily bankroll playing this system in over 200k hands. Its a very slow progression with built in stop points in case things start to get out of hand. You can find it at (Dead link: http://www.freeadultstuff.us/gamble/302systems/) if you would like to check it out. The file is Star.pdf

 

[QFIT]

Has anyone here tested the Star system for real in the casino? The author claims he's never lost his daily bankroll playing this system in over 200k hands. Its a very slow progression with built in stop points in case things start to get out of hand. You can find it at (Dead link: http://www.freeadultstuff.us/gamble/302systems/) if you would like to check it out. The file is Star.pdf

I'm sorry; but why would any one "test" a system in a casino? It's just another fraud trying to get you to lose money in an online casino so he can get 20% of your losses. IMO this is why we build prisons.

 

[dalexis]

Umm...how do you figure this is some fraud trying to get you to lose money in an online casino. You obviously didnt even check this out why wouldnt you test it in a real casino where it actually counts? RNG is no substitute for real casino action i dont care what anyone says. RNG is NOT the same.

When i first found this forum i was hoping that it might be different in that the people here would actually test things out instead of just sitting around bashing other people. Guess i was wrong.

GL luck, my last post here on this craptastic forum. PLenty more out there just like this 1 and i dont frequent those either.

 

[dacium]

Im reading through star.pdf now... so far its filled with so much crap. 18 pages in and he still has not gotton to the system.

 

[QFIT]

Umm...how do you figure this is some fraud trying to get you to lose money in an online casino. You obviously didnt even check this out why wouldnt you test it in a real casino where it actually counts? RNG is no substitute for real casino action i dont care what anyone says. RNG is NOT the same.

When i first found this forum i was hoping that it might be different in that the people here would actually test things out instead of just sitting around bashing other people. Guess i was wrong.

GL luck, my last post here on this craptastic forum. PLenty more out there just like this 1 and i dont frequent those either.

Lashing out at people trying to help you is not an effective path to knowledge and success.

 

[EasyRhino]

(Dead link: http://www.freeadultstuff.us/gamble/302systems/)

Oh my god that's like 300-400 betting systems?!!?

I clicked on a few at random, started reading, but then I couldn't continue because I started crying.

 

[positiveEV]

Funny quote from his website:

Most people don't follow these strategies, and end up losing lots of money However, if you are disciplined enough to follow the steps, you can put the odds in your favor and earn lots of money. Why do some casinos support my site? That's a better question that I sometimes I don't even understand.

 

[Kasi]

What are you asking? What do you mean by BB and MM?

I just meant billion and million lol.

And how house advantage is defined. No big deal.

HA*total wagered will get u close enough lol.

 

[dacium]

I went to that site and downloaded all the systems... hahaha quite sad really...

Actually there is 1 that does makes some sense, the one that says to write down 800 results from a roulette wheel to find if it has bias. The rest of them are complete rubbish.

 

[SPX]

Umm...how do you figure this is some fraud trying to get you to lose money in an online casino. You obviously didnt even check this out why wouldnt you test it in a real casino where it actually counts? RNG is no substitute for real casino action i dont care what anyone says. RNG is NOT the same.

When i first found this forum i was hoping that it might be different in that the people here would actually test things out instead of just sitting around bashing other people. Guess i was wrong.

GL luck, my last post here on this craptastic forum. PLenty more out there just like this 1 and i dont frequent those either.

I certainly can understand both your passion and your point. I, too, have issues with the presumptions and assumptions that are sometimes made, especially in regard to computer-based simulation and whether or not it can be made to act precisely as a hand-shuffled deck. Frankly, the truth is that we don't know until we hand-shuffle and deal 100 million hands (or however many they say is adequate . . . it changes by the hour).

I'm not saying what is or isn't . . . I only have the humility to admit when I don't know. But then again, I find that in regard to many things, I am more open-minded than others. I won't immediately disbelieve you if you tell me that you saw a ghost, were abducted by aliens or had a near-death experience in which you met dead loved ones. I would instead begin walking down the path of investigation.

Still, there are a few here who will at least engage you in some decent discussion, so long as you approach certain issues politely and intelligently.

 

[xxrenegadexx]

ANY blackjack player that has played for more than ..... lets say 50 hours or so. Can honestly tell you that losing 5, 6, 7 ... or more hands is quite possible and very realistic.

 

[xxrenegadexx]

I mean my god..... ive lost 5 HUGE bets in a row where ive had the advantage in my favor ..... ANY prog. system is not going to work unless A) you are the luckiest man on the earth ... or B) you dont play long. And never play again

 

[Kasi]

I mean my god..... ive lost 5 HUGE bets in a row where ive had the advantage in my favor ..... ANY prog. system is not going to work unless A) you are the luckiest man on the earth ... or B) you dont play long. And never play again

Sure it'll happen.

Was Huge bigger than max bet?

How much advantage do u think u had anyway?

What this has to do with progressions I don't know.