Considering Coloring up for the last time

[moo321]

I'm somewhat disappointed since all I really ever want is a discussion anyway.

I sometimes say things in an extreme way just to provoke discussions as I guess I did in your case. But how I say them doesn't change what I think.

But I try to not make personal crticisms and if I sometimes cross the line in your mind my profuse apologies. In my mind I'm just expressing an opinion on something someone said.

So feel free to flame away. Hopefully in the spirit of debating opinions, facts etc rather than character assassination. Of which, I agree with you and then some ,too much of that going on lately.

So, in that spirit, flame away!

And I do also agree with you that often, heck, almost always, there is woefully inadequate info given to make a meaningful conclusion. If there's anyone that believes God is in the details, it's me.

So, if you want to fill in any more, and enough, details as to why you considered the 3 games and spreads I mentioned all have less than 5% ROR's, great. To me, under almost anything I can think of, they would basically be apples and oranges - overbetting in most playall scenarios (high ROR) and underbetting (low ROR) in a backcounting scenario. But, like you say, it was basically a guess with assumptions based on the usual inadequate info.

Or maybe jump in with why you think that formula is fine, with or without ignoring all bets less than a max bet, that would be great. In all honesty I could use some enlightenment on it because I don't understand it at all but I may have just been thrown off by that ignoring all small bets stuff.

This ROR stuff is very hard to get a grasp on, for me anyway, coming in so many different flavors as it does. Lifetime. Trip. Losing whatever before winning whatever, etc. So having so many points of view on it is not surprising.

Who knows, maybe one of us, or someone reading, you never know, might get a new thought on something,

Well, the biggest problem I have is when we have a thread where someone comes in and says "I have $5k, can I count cards?" And 3 people jump down his throat and tell him he has a 60% risk of ruin. And it's also difficult to determine what risk of ruin is, when no one can possible even know how many hands they will be playing with a given bank. If you say "over one trip your risk of ruin is x" that's fine.

 

[Doofus]

You are in a virtual room with how many people? All of them are questioning your judgement.

Count me out of the lynching party. I'm not going to question his judgment - it sounds to me like he has a realistic attitude and doesn't piss, moan, and whine about losing $$$.

I play blackjack ONLY because of the enjoyment and excitement I get out of it. I don't know precise ROR calculations and wouldn't care to find out to how many decimal places I can calculate the odds. I know what the risks of overbetting are, I've done it myself (sometimes) and am not ashamed to admit it. I have lost and won fair dinkum sums of money at the tables and have had a blast doing it.

I DO care about the mechanics of knowing how to count, knowing when the odds are in my favor and when they are against me. If I blow my bankroll I won't be scarred for life, because I never have an amount out on the felt that I can't afford to lose.

Ferret, there are some good points made about overbetting in this thread. There are also some Slide Rule Jockeys whose idea of gambling is making a bet of $36.53 because that's what the computer program says they should do in that situation. They may be great guys but I will not be knocking back any Tanqueray and Tonics with them at the Bellagio on my next trip to Vegas! :laugh:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Have I been Insulted LOL

Count me out of the lynching party. I'm not going to question his judgment - it sounds to me like he has a realistic attitude and doesn't piss, moan, and whine about losing $$$.

I play blackjack ONLY because of the enjoyment and excitement I get out of it. I don't know precise ROR calculations and wouldn't care to find out to how many decimal places I can calculate the odds. I know what the risks of overbetting are, I've done it myself (sometimes) and am not ashamed to admit it. I have lost and won fair dinkum sums of money at the tables and have had a blast doing it.

I DO care about the mechanics of knowing how to count, knowing when the odds are in my favor and when they are against me. If I blow my bankroll I won't be scarred for life, because I never have an amount out on the felt that I can't afford to lose.

Ferret, there are some good points made about overbetting in this thread. There are also some Slide Rule Jockeys whose idea of gambling is making a bet of $36.53 because that's what the computer program says they should do in that situation. They may be great guys but I will not be knocking back any Tanqueray and Tonics with them at the Bellagio on my next trip to Vegas! :laugh:

Hmmmmmm

Ferret asked for our opinions.

If several people speak up and warn Ferret that he is in danger of losing 10g. Which seems a lot of money for him, we are trying to help him and do him a favor. If our statements seem strong it is because we do not seem to be getting through to him. Of course we could not have cared, not tried to convince him of the errors of his ways and just read his posts in time when he loses his money.

Now you state you "DO" care about the mechanics and knowing when the odds are in your favor and when they are against you? Well, if you have no idea of risk of ruin then they are quite possibly against you. You stated yourself you have lost bankrolls. Betting optimally will outperm all other forms of betting and you don't have to bet pennies to bet optimally. Understanding trip and/or bankroll ROR numbers is extremely important.

 

[sagefr0g]

Well, the biggest problem I have is when we have a thread where someone comes in and says "I have $5k, can I count cards?" And 3 people jump down his throat and tell him he has a 60% risk of ruin. And it's also difficult to determine what risk of ruin is, when no one can possible even know how many hands they will be playing with a given bank. If you say "over one trip your risk of ruin is x" that's fine.

yes you have a point moo. it does seem the subject of risk of ruin has many subtle nuances to it.
i think i'm one that jumps to those conclusions you refer to above. that stems from my being such a one dimensional sort of player. just dealing with basicaly the same set of circumstances, game types, general penetration, table min/max's, rules and the nature of my own personal bankroll and personal financial circumstances.
so many things . so many differant circumstances and concerns of people with differant objectives and all.
for me risk of ruin is just a theoretical way to set some guide lines for betting limitations that i can feel comfortable with and that give me enough 'slack' so as to survive the inevitable down swings of standard deviation. and that said i got to realize that those down swings could happen repeatedly one after another to the point where my bankroll could be totally wiped out. to where i have to answer the question is there some amount of money that i'd be willing to lose it all over an 'extended' period of time if i have a chance to make some amount of money over that same time. but then you have to also consider is that amount of money being put at risk enough to pass the test of the real world up and down swings that are every bit as real as the expectations you hope to realize over the long haul. that's where you just can't get around the ugly fact that with table min's and max's being what they are that just about any prospective player is going to need to have a substantial bankroll if they want to give card counting against blackjack a shot.
the other side of the coin is that such a prospective player could start out with a completely inadequate bankroll and just by luck and skill hail mary his way to an adequate bankroll lol. which is pretty much my story lol.
but yeah i think risk of ruin can be viewed in differant ways such as ROR before doubling, trip ROR and i guess lifetime ROR for some given bank and game circumstances. and as i think your pointing out one needs to understand the nuances. which is i think an important distinction and one for which i've got to admit i'm not fully versed in.

 

[Kasi]

Well, the biggest problem I have is when we have a thread where someone comes in and says "I have $5k, can I count cards?" And 3 people jump down his throat and tell him he has a 60% risk of ruin. And it's also difficult to determine what risk of ruin is, when no one can possible even know how many hands they will be playing with a given bank. If you say "over one trip your risk of ruin is x" that's fine.

Speaking of details, for your first 2 sentences, it's just like you say. If that's all they know, they know nothing and can draw no conclusions.

And, given the more-or-less absolute truth of your 3rd sentence lol, your 4th sentence should define how many hands are in "one trip" lol.

Just so you know, as an example, for a trip ROR, all I think you need to know is EV and stan dev expressed in min-units, either per hand or per hour. Whatever. And number of hands you will play on the trip. That's pretty much it.

I don't need to know your total dollar roll, your total unit roll, number of max bets in your roll, what counting system you use, what indices you may be using, how you are betting, whether you use camo or not, what game you are playing with what rules or what penetration or what your lifetime ROR is.

And, take hope, there are lots of free calculators out there that can answer almost any of your questions so you don't have to rely on anything said here.