Continued losing- Having trouble coping with the losses

[KewlJ]

without knowing any other details of John Crover's play, these swings mentioned, going from $9100 down to $2000 and then back up to just shy of $9000 and then seemingly just a few hours later down to $4500 indicates severe overbetting of this limited bankroll.

I am not a math expert type. I leave that stuff to Don and others. But doesn't the math formula that betting more than 2x Kelly guarantees one outcome....RUIN?

If you are serious about this "experiment" you have to start playing by and within the mathematics of the game.

 

[KewlJ]

I am not a math expert type. I leave that stuff to Don and others. But doesn't the math formula that betting more than 2x Kelly guarantees one outcome....RUIN?

Not specific to this or any other situation, I want to expand on this concept, because I have always been interested in how another popular blackjack bankroll concept, the "hail Mary bankroll", seems to completely contradict this "guarantee".

 

[MrFatCat]

Not specific to this or any other situation, I want to expand on this concept, because I have always been interested in how another popular blackjack bankroll concept, the "hail Mary bankroll", seems to completely contradict this "guarantee".

That was your starting situation IIRC, have you ever gone back and done the math on what your ROR was?

 

[London Colin]

I have always been interested in how another popular blackjack bankroll concept, the "hail Mary bankroll", seems to completely contradict this "guarantee".

Surely the guarantee assumes continual bet resizing. If every bet you ever make is more than 2x the Kelly fraction of whatever your current bankroll is at the time, then you must eventually go broke.

 

[KewlJ]

That was your starting situation IIRC, have you ever gone back and done the math on what your ROR was?

Are you talking about when I started out back in 2004? No, I haven't done the math, but I am (now) well aware I was playing to a very high RoR. The small bet spread I was playing didn't really equate to a huge RoR, but the concept of taking money out monthly, even a small amount, surely elevated my RoR to a level that one shouldn't consider playing. I now know I was very lucky.

But I was fully prepared and even expecting to bust out. I would have found another low paying retail job, built up another BR and tried again. Isn't that basically what a "hail Mary" is?

 

[pokerluckbox]

The games must be rigged if you lost

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

I`ve heard John talk about his exact RoR figures on another outlet, so he knows there`s a big risk of losing it all. I don`t know if Hail Mary Bankroll is the exact word for it, but I guess it depends on what one`s definition of that is. Not sure to what degree his risk is on the new game he`s on now, but hopefully it`s decently low and he can dig out and get ahead. Really glad to hear it`s going better John, just keep your expectations realistic. I`ve heard you talk about 21 a good deal so I don`t think that`s a problem. However it`s easy to feel like you`re invincible at one moment and then like you`ll literally never win again pretty soon afterwards. I guess what I`m trying to get at is to realize it`s going to be a long road starting out like you are if you plan to only do this. I say this as a peer going through the same thing. After an obnoxious amount of studying, practicing, and playing, I`ve sacrificed a lot and blackjack has given me absolutely nothing but a beatdown so far. Hopefully we can both turn it around.

 

[JohnCrover]

I`ve heard John talk about his exact RoR figures on another outlet, so he knows there`s a big risk of losing it all. I don`t know if Hail Mary Bankroll is the exact word for it, but I guess it depends on what one`s definition of that is. Not sure to what degree his risk is on the new game he`s on now, but hopefully it`s decently low and he can dig out and get ahead. Really glad to hear it`s going better John, just keep your expectations realistic. I`ve heard you talk about 21 a good deal so I don`t think that`s a problem. However it`s easy to feel like you`re invincible at one moment and then like you`ll literally never win again pretty soon afterwards. I guess what I`m trying to get at is to realize it`s going to be a long road starting out like you are if you plan to only do this. I say this as a peer going through the same thing. After an obnoxious amount of studying, practicing, and playing, I`ve sacrificed a lot and blackjack has given me absolutely nothing but a beatdown so far. Hopefully we can both turn it around.

Thanks for the kind words man. We can do this. Just one day, one session, one hour at a time.
@KewlJ I should have been clearer. I have not gotten close to breaking even. I meant that I have almost broken even since I started playing the new game out of state. Meaning I'm still down about $4,300. If that makes any sense, sorry.
My RoR is below 10% now.
And it is probably one of the best games in the country, if not the best.

 

[MrFatCat]

My RoR is below 10% now.

This seems dubious to me -- unless you're like, spreading 1-10 at single deck or something, you don't usually get better than 2% or so edge at BJ. I haven't done Kelly calcs in a long time (I did a bunch when I was first starting to play poker ~15 years ago), but my recollection of the punchline back then was that you need a lot more bankroll or a lot more edge to be at 10%.

 

[jupitor88]

Best games in the country would be 6 deck s17 late surrender split aces unlimted (yes they do that sands watch this 1 guy split aces 5 times over) and 75-85% pent and ofcourse no heat whats so ever, anything better than that would need a time machine

im sure those games are a dime a dozen in vegas off and on the strip but here on east coast late surrender alone is a gold mine

 

[MrFatCat]

Best games in the country would be 6 deck s17 late surrender split aces unlimted (yes they do that sands watch this 1 guy split aces 5 times over) and 75-85% pent and ofcourse no heat whats so ever, anything better than that would need a time machine

im sure those games are a dime a dozen in vegas off and on the strip but here on east coast late surrender alone is a gold mine

Oh, is that why to go to Sands? We went there a month or two ago and had a terrible time with the smoke, but if that's the case I may go back.

I also only saw $25/min on Saturday at noon, thought that was a little pricey, I'm only really rolled for $10/min at the moment.