Correct spread and bet ramp for 1000 unit BR

[Midwestern]

Hey guys,
I was hoping you guys could help me figure out an optimal spread and bet ramp for the following conditions

6 deck, H17, 75% pen, da2, das, split aces get one card only, no surrender. I think this game has a house edge of about .66

Other info; bankroll is 1000 units, Wong in at tc+1, Wong out at tc-1

I've been using the bet ramp below and finding that I'm losing money too quickly. Maybe the ramp is too aggressive at lower counts.... Or maybe I'm having bad variance, but I'm down about 220 units after 10 hours of play and I'm thinking that any advice is good advice.

Tc less than 1: 1 unit
Tc 2 : 4 unit
Tc 3: 8 unit
Tc 4+: 12 unit // 2 hands of 7 unit

Any help on the math to figure out ror and my actual edge in favorable counts is greatly appreciated.

FYI I know the rules of my game are pretty poor- that's why I'm spreading 1-12 and wonging hardcore. Following advice from the board and dropping out of new shoes if rc goes past -6, or if not at least rc +1 after 1 deck
:grin:
Thanks friends!

 

[kewljason]

A couple comments. Your game isn't horrible. Basically very average. Surrender and deeper pen would make it much better, but....a 1-12 spread, exiting many neg counts should make it beatable. You are doing some things right like getting max bet out by tc +4 and exiting negative counts. I don't think tinkering with your spread is the answer.

Being down 220 units after 10 hours sucks I know, but if you are counting correctly and playing correctly and getting the money out when called for, a slightly different spread would not have yielded greatly different results. :sad: Sometimes it really is just short term negative variance. I know that sucks. A key aspect of my statement is continuing "to get the money out when called for". Sometimes players get timid and cut back during a rough ride. You have got to keep putting it out there, assuming you are properly bankrolled. :whip:

Basically our results, both longterm and short term are the results of what happens at the high counts with our top wager out. The rest has little significants. If you aren't winning your big bets, you aren't going to win regardless of what happens at tc of +2 or +3. So some short term bad varience like losing 15-20 of these top wagers is going to yeild very bad short term results. At this point, I would double check to be sure all the other aspects of your game are correct and stick with what you are doing.

Oh and being from the midwest, there are much better games than that. Seek them out. There is a reason why all the AP's are flocking there.

 

[Gamblor]

Your a tad aggressive on the +2, +3 count (which I think is good and wouldn't recommend you change), so its not a surprise your down 200+ units at 10 hrs, happens occassionally.

Ironically was recently down 100+ units over 10 hours playing at a slightly better game than yours (S17), but made it all up in 4 hrs playing a slightly worse game (8D, H17), and got a dealer switch to boot Hope same happens to you.

 

[FLASH1296]

Midwestern,

I would say that your local BJ game is almost playable. I deem it marginal at best. After 19+ years of Pro play, I have never, even once, played a game this poor.

To be really playable you would want to have Late Surrender, preferably with re-split Aces and better penetration.

As it is, there is no accurate way to discuss your betting ramp without knowing what Count you are using.

I can say that, assuming you are using Hi-Lo, you'd do well to adjust your spread to 16 to 1. IF this were a S17 game 12 to 1 would suffice.

 

[Midwestern]

Ahh yes, sorry bout that --you guessed it right, i'm using Hi-Lo, and rounding down the TC

 

[Midwestern]

Oh and being from the midwest, there are much better games than that. Seek them out. There is a reason why all the AP's are flocking there.

thats the thing, I spent many good years in the midwest, but my career has led me to the west coast. the handle is more of a tribute than anything

 

[BJgenius007]

Your a tad aggressive on the +2, +3 count (which I think is good and wouldn't recommend you change), so its not a surprise your down 200+ units at 10 hrs, happens occassionally.

Ironically was recently down 100+ units over 10 hours playing at a slightly better game than yours (S17), but made it all up in 4 hrs playing a slightly worse game (8D, H17), and got a dealer switch to boot Hope same happens to you.

Nope, he is not a tad aggressive on the +2, +3 count. If not just right on the money, he is a little soft on the bet. If I were him, I would push the bid size a little higher, to 6 units on +2 and 9 units on +3. (And keep your max bet 12 units on +4 or above).

 

[BJgenius007]

Nope, he is not a tad aggressive on the +2, +3 count. If not just right on the money, he is a little soft on the bet. If I were him, I would push the bid size a little higher, to 6 units on +2 and 9 units on +3. (And keep your max bet 12 units on +4 or above).

Also, over the years, I found out play TC +1 right is crucial on the shoe game. Your biggest mistake led to your loss is you only bet 1 unit on TC +1.

You need to bet 3 or 4 units on TC +1. That means, when true count is 0.6, 0.7, 1, 1.2 or 1.4, you bet 3 units (or 4). When true count is 1.5, you bet 6 units, because the number is round to +2.

 

[kewljason]

Also, over the years, I found out play TC +1 right is crucial on the shoe game. Your biggest mistake led to your loss is you only bet 1 unit on TC +1.

You need to bet 3 or 4 units on TC +1. That means, when true count is 0.6, 0.7, 1, 1.2 or 1.4, you bet 3 units (or 4). When true count is 1.5, you bet 6 units, because the number is round to +2.

Ok, he clarified after the OP, that he rounds down. But more importantly, why are you advising betting 3-4 units at tc +1. A game with an IHA of .66 isn't even an even game at tc +1. Still a losing proposition. Why are you raising?

 

[zengrifter]

Ok, he clarified after the OP, that he rounds down. re you advising betting 3-4 units at tc +1. A game with an IHA of .66 isn't even an even game at tc +1. Still a losing proposition. Why are you raising?

At BJINFO that is what is called a 'BJgenius-ism". zg

 

[BJgenius007]

Ok, he clarified after the OP, that he rounds down. But more importantly, why are you advising betting 3-4 units at tc +1. A game with an IHA of .66 isn't even an even game at tc +1. Still a losing proposition. Why are you raising?

At TC 0, house has the advantage about -0.5% depending on the rules, with each positive TC point, you add 0.7% to the player's advantage. So this game start at -0.6% at TC 0, but at +1, players has 0.1% advantage. Don't underlook the 0.1% advantage, it adds up in the long run, especially the shoe game. Players probably spend 20% of the time playing at TC +1.

 

[Midwestern]

Assuming that tcs are normally distributed with mean of zero, and gven the fact that im wonging in/out at +1/-1 id say the amount of time playing tc+1 is maybe even closer to 65% !

this discussion is pretty helpful so far. I mainly wanted to validate that I had a reasonable spread and I wasn't underbetting or over betting the advantage. So at least now im more comfortable that my recent losses weren't based on that.

So here is what I'm inferring:
With a 1000 unit bankroll and the rules for my local game, the optimal spread is 1-15, and optimal bet ramp is
~ 2 units at tc 1
~5 at tc2
~9 at tc 3
14+ at tc4

However, isn't that the same as having a 500 unit bankroll (original unit size x2) and spreading 1-7??

 

[kewljason]

At TC 0, house has the advantage about -0.5% depending on the rules, with each positive TC point, you add 0.7% to the player's advantage. So this game start at -0.6% at TC 0, but at +1, players has 0.1% advantage. Don't underlook the 0.1% advantage, it adds up in the long run, especially the shoe game. Players probably spend 20% of the time playing at TC +1.

Your numbers are incorrect, not that it matter than much. With Hi-lo, you gain an advantage of roughly between .5% to .55% per tc, depending on rules, not .7%. The generally accepted estimate is .5%. So at a tc of +1 it is still a negative EV hand. And you were talking earlier of rounding counts below tc of +1. like tc +.6 into the +1 range which will most assuredly mean you are still playing at a disadvantge. That is why generally we round down if you are going to round. If you raise your bets while still playing at a disadvantage you just create a bigger hole that you have to overcome. Even if it was an even game at tc +1, which it isn't, raising your bet at that point adds no extra EV, only extra variance.

The only acceptable reason for raising at this point would be cover. If you are using a large spread and want to smooth out the ramp to avoid any kind of massive jump, but as I stated, there is a price to pay for that.

If I was playing this game my first jump in wager would occur at tc of +1.5, when I actually had a small advantage. And that tiny advantage doesn't really add much in the long run. I would jump slightly at tc of +1.5 to smooth the ramp for my bigger jumps at +2 and +3.

 

[Gamblor]

Nope, he is not a tad aggressive on the +2, +3 count. If not just right on the money, he is a little soft on the bet. If I were him, I would push the bid size a little higher, to 6 units on +2 and 9 units on +3. (And keep your max bet 12 units on +4 or above).

It's a tad aggressive if your concerned about being down 220 units in 10 hrs

 

[Midwestern]

I made 60 units back last night using 1,4,9,12 betramp. felt really good.

 

[Coyote]

I made 60 units back last night using 1,4,9,12 betramp. felt really good.

Congrats Midwestern! A win like that is always nice!

Coyote

 

[Midwestern]

Dumb dumb dumb

Well I feel dumb.
Spent some time at the tables on Sunday night and was doing fairly well. I mean, really playing excellent. Counting accurately, having good table presence, even chatting up a pb while counting in my head. Cards fell thr way they should and i was Up about another 40 units, bringing my deficit down to only 120 units for my AP career.

.....and then I got cocky and dumb.....

Decided to "play with the houses money" and took my session BR to a higher limit table to try and make some "real" money.
But armed with only 20 min bets (at the new higher stakes) i was pretty much just a gambling ploppy with no BR to withstand normal variance. Using a spread of 1-4 I basically had no edge and i was Wiped out in two shoes

Why am i posting this total fail? Because I am completely surprised at how easy it was to get " caught in the moment" and of how Easily I strayed from
the master plan. Hopefully publically admitting it will cause me to own up to it and play different next time.

Lesson learned- there's no way I should deserve to call myself an AP with that kind of discipline.

 

[ohbehave]

Its very easy to slip. Now regroup and be more strict with your discipline. You know where your money is. Its not going anywhere, so with the proper bankroll and strategy you can go back and get it... a little at a time.

 

[Gamblor]

Discipline is the number one virtue of a counter. No need to push things, cards over time will fall as they should, they always do.

 

[Thunder]

Discipline is the number one virtue of a counter. No need to push things, cards over time will fall as they should, they always do.

I'm glad you recognized that you were failing at the discipline part. As I and many others have said, being an AP in blackjack is far more than just counting. Aside from the actual counting, you need to be proficient at money management, discipline, somewhat socially adept, and it helps a lot if you have an understanding of statistics. Things like standard deviation, correlation, mean, distribution, etc are words the AP knows and uses frequently.