Counting and Flat Betting

[joeblackjack]

So this is an interesting idea that has probably been done before, but it was new to me when I came up with it. About 10 years ago I tried counting cards. I was backed off within hours from a few places, and decided that I had more fun playing than getting kicked out so I stopped. But, I've never lost my fascination with counting and always thought I'd take it up again if I found a strategy that could relatively easily mask the counting.

I wrote a blackjack simulator, and discovered that on single and double deck games, with decent rules, you can have a fairly healthy advantage by simply flat betting off the top of the deck, and going to a new table or waiting for a new shuffle when the count after any given hand is less than +2 using a simple KO count (and obviously continuing to play, maintaining your flat bet, when the count is +2 or greater). On single deck, this yields an advantage above 1%, even with restricted doubling, and with strip-rules double deck (S17, DOA, DAS) it delivers about 0.6%.

If you think about this, it's very powerful. You can act much like a big player, going from table to table, except without the team, and you never have to enter mid-deck. You aren't displaying any of the characteristics of a counter, and most of the time you are only playing 1 hand off the top of the deck. It will drastically reduce the number of hands played, but you can compensate for that by playing much bigger without anyone pegging you as a card counter.

It's just a thought. I can post the simulation data if you like.

 

[Richard Munchkin]

Joe,

It's a great idea and was first written about in the 1970s by Stanford Wong. In fact the technique is called Wonging because of his writing on the subject. Check out his book, Professional Blackjack.

If you enjoy playing but want to avoid heat you might also check out Comp City by Max Rubin.

 

[tthree]

So this is an interesting idea that has probably been done before, but it was new to me when I came up with it. About 10 years ago I tried counting cards. I was backed off within hours from a few places, and decided that I had more fun playing than getting kicked out so I stopped. But, I've never lost my fascination with counting and always thought I'd take it up again if I found a strategy that could relatively easily mask the counting.

I wrote a blackjack simulator, and discovered that on single and double deck games, with decent rules, you can have a fairly healthy advantage by simply flat betting off the top of the deck, and going to a new table or waiting for a new shuffle when the count after any given hand is less than +2 using a simple KO count (and obviously continuing to play, maintaining your flat bet, when the count is +2 or greater). On single deck, this yields an advantage above 1%, even with restricted doubling, and with strip-rules double deck (S17, DOA, DAS) it delivers about 0.6%.

If you think about this, it's very powerful. You can act much like a big player, going from table to table, except without the team, and you never have to enter mid-deck. You aren't displaying any of the characteristics of a counter, and most of the time you are only playing 1 hand off the top of the deck. It will drastically reduce the number of hands played, but you can compensate for that by playing much bigger without anyone pegging you as a card counter.

It's just a thought. I can post the simulation data if you like.

You are going to have a hard time finding single deck with those rules anywhere. You will not find many tables with those rules to table hop. The concept holds some merit aside from never finding the game you are simming. If the count drops the hand you played had a positive count. In the long run these hands will be better for you the more the count dropped. After that hand you are at a disadvantage. If the count goes up on the first hand it was played at disadvantage. But you may now have an advantage. I would still count for PE. Pick a count with a very high PE and add a side count or two to increase the PE even more. Pick the strongest game you can find in a casino with multiple tables of SD.

 

[joeblackjack]

Joe,

It's a great idea and was first written about in the 1970s by Stanford Wong. In fact the technique is called Wonging because of his writing on the subject. Check out his book, Professional Blackjack.

If you enjoy playing but want to avoid heat you might also check out Comp City by Max Rubin.

Hi Richard,

Thanks for the reply. I like your radio show. I am familiar with Wonging...but I always understood it as back-counting, and then jumping in only after the count becomes positive. That is conceptually drastically different from what I am talking about here. Wonging - at least by the definitions I have read - has been defeated in most casinos by the simple addition of the "no mid-deck/shoe entry" rules, and these days it sticks out like a sore thumb in the places that do allow mid-deck entry.

Don't get me wrong - I'm guessing that this and any other technique I could come up with has been thought of and tried a hundred times. But in the several blackjack books that I have read, including those specifically dealing with Wonging, I have never seen the method I posted above mentioned.

 

[Sucker]

This technique has been around long before Stanford Wong came along & blabbed about it. Millions of dollars have been made with this method.Nowadays, however; it's too hard to make any real money this way, due to the fact that there just aren't enough good single & double decks left. You'd be spending almost all of your time waiting, or walking from casino to casino. (You SURE wouldn't want to try it on the 6:5 game :laugh

 

[joeblackjack]

You are going to have a hard time finding single deck with those rules anywhere. You will not find many tables with those rules to table hop. The concept holds some merit aside from never finding the game you are simming. If the count drops the hand you played had a positive count. In the long run these hands will be better for you the more the count dropped. After that hand you are at a disadvantage. If the count goes up on the first hand it was played at disadvantage. But you may now have an advantage. I would still count for PE. Pick a count with a very high PE and add a side count or two to increase the PE even more. Pick the strongest game you can find in a casino with multiple tables of SD.

Well, the double deck game I simulated is all over the Strip (usually with $25 or $100 minimums), and the single-deck games with restricted doubling that I simulated (H17, double on 10/11, No DAS) are found all over Reno. There are far more of these games in Reno than anything else...I'd say 75% of the tables in Reno fall into the single deck simulation I used.

 

[Sucker]

Hi Richard,
I am familiar with Wonging...but I always understood it as back-counting, and then jumping in only after the count becomes positive. .

Interesting but kind of sad fact of the gambling world; someone learns something from someone else - puts it in a book - then the gamblers of the world give HIM credit as though HE'S the one who invented it.

There are VERY few things in printed gambling books that actually WERE thought up by the author - and that includes card-counting ITSELF, which has been around since before Thorp was even a gleam in his father's eye!

 

[Automatic Monkey]

You don't need a SD or DD game for that, a shoe with good rules works just fine. You don't even need to table hop- jump up to yell and scream at a game on the TV at auspicious times, leave your cheques on the table and come back when the cut card is out. You need at least one civilian victim at the table to do this, or the bad cards will be waiting for you indefinitely.

 

[blackriver]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stigler's_law_of_eponymy

 

[blackjack avenger]

tough

The N0 for this strategy would be very poor. One can employ an occasional 1 to 1.5, 2 camo spread and improve things greatly & add camoflauge. Doing the same thing repeatedly possibly not the best camo.

 

[Midnght Cow]

Seems the OP's idea is more of a depth-charging/wonging hybrid.

Flat bet (or use a small spread), hope for a good shoe, but if the count goes neg, drop the bet to minimum or wong out. Look for the next table, wong in or start with a fresh shuffle, flat bet, hope for a good shoe, and on and on....

 

[blackjack avenger]

also

Probably to much table hopping with the strategy considering SD & DD games.