Counting Questions

[EasyRhino]

I won about 2k on a BR of 200 about 7 yrs ago and since then I usually lose a few hundred bucks a couple of times in a row before I break even or win a couple of hundred.

If you start taking it seriously, prepare to reverse those expectation. In other words, you walk into a casino with $2000. You have a real chance of tapping out completely for that session (or of a big win!) but if you stick at it for several hours, then your expected value would be $200.

 

[BeeJay]

Maybe I should ask how much u take on a trip, how long u expect to play, and how you bet the game the game u talk about it (or how u would bet it if u counted).

Like u say u bet 10-80 when there are $5 tables around - I assume u r playing all hands?

So, if u counted, spreading 1-8, playing all hands, how would u play if u counted? And with how much money for that trip?

I usually take 2-500 and expect to play for many hours. I generally bet bigger (add 1-2 chips) when I am hot and the shoe is going well, and the minimim or 2x when things aren't good.

generally yes, I sit out a few hands once in a while if things get really ugly


I hope I can follow the rules. I realize that will involve bigger swings and I will need a bigger BR.

 

[BeeJay]

If you start taking it seriously, prepare to reverse those expectation. In other words, you walk into a casino with $2000. You have a real chance of tapping out completely for that session (or of a big win!) but if you stick at it for several hours, then your expected value would be $200.

I see that now. I also realize that I will need to make sure I am decent at counting before I try. I am ok so far in practice but I occasinally get lost and I sometimes have a hard time adding my own cards while I keep track of the count. I also need to learn the indices better and what to do when a situation is similar to an index but isn't on the I18 etc.

 

[BeeJay]

I certainly don't want to be a party pooper here: however, if you're squimish about losing $500 in a session then certainly card counting is definitely not for you. If you're playing a shoe game in AC , even at a $5 min. table (good luck there!) to be in an effective winning position, your top bet needs to be at least 8U ($40) and more preferably 10+(play all). To sustain that play your BR will need to be in the neighborhood of $5K and at least $2K for a trip. You shouldn't even bat an eye about losing a session's worth in a few hours. That's happened to all of us here. The real problem that I see is that the volatility you are going to be exposed to at max. bet levels. If you're not ABSOLUTELY sure of how to make plays in this "highly charged" segment of the game, you're going to get slammed big time. This is when the bets are the highest, where the adrenlin rushs,where BS deviations are more frequent and where over/under betting either leaves your EV crashing or wipes out your BR muy pronto.
Just a few things to contemplate before you take that big plunge.

Excellent advice. Thank you. I know myself and have the kind of personality to trust the numbers and not sweat a loss, but I will need to know that I am playing correctly and that truly do have the odds in my favor of getting it back eventually.

 

[BeeJay]

If you start taking it seriously, prepare to reverse those expectation. In other words, you walk into a casino with $2000. You have a real chance of tapping out completely for that session (or of a big win!) but if you stick at it for several hours, then your expected value would be $200.

Also, I meant to ask, it seems to me that flat betting (or reduced spreads) might not be a bad idea to start. It certainly greatly reduces the volatility and the chance of losing everything. Is the loss of advantage so great that fb is not recommended for beginners?

 

[EasyRhino]

Also, I meant to ask, it seems to me that flat betting (or reduced spreads) might not be a bad idea to start. It certainly greatly reduces the volatility and the chance of losing everything. Is the loss of advantage so great that fb is not recommended for beginners?

Flat betting, or a small spread in a shoe game, will still leaving you playing with a house disadvantage. So, you might be able to write if off as "practice", and there might be a place for that, since it's more preferable to discovering kinks if you're playing with a full bet spread.

Another option, if you're have a lot of money to dedicate to this, would be to just shrink the total size of your action. If you've got a low-roller places avaialble, use red chips instead of green. Or use silver instead of red.

But still, it's practice that costs you money. The kitchen table or software is still much cheaper. Another good recommendation is to try to backcount a table without ever playing a hand. This gets you more use to actual practices, but you're not yet distracted by any playing/betting decisions.

 

[bj bob]

I'll second that

Flat betting, or a small spread in a shoe game, will still leaving you playing with a house disadvantage. So, you might be able to write if off as "practice", and there might be a place for that, since it's more preferable to discovering kinks if you're playing with a full bet spread.

Another option, if you're have a lot of money to dedicate to this, would be to just shrink the total size of your action. If you've got a low-roller places avaialble, use red chips instead of green. Or use silver instead of red.

But still, it's practice that costs you money. The kitchen table or software is still much cheaper. Another good recommendation is to try to backcount a table without ever playing a hand. This gets you more use to actual practices, but you're not yet distracted by any playing/betting decisions.

Rhino's right on. There are plenty of good practice features right here on our forum. Start out with these and this will increase your speed with BS. After you're comfortable with that, then go to a $5 table and get accustomed to actual play. Bring a BS card with you so you can catch any possible mistakes while you're still at the table. Lastly, I wouldn't worry about any indices past the I-18 at this point. You don't need all the extra mental distractions yet. You can always add on later.

 

[EasyRhino]

I wouldn't worry about any indices at all the first time out. Not a single damn one. Not even insurance.

 

[BeeJay]

Rhino's right on. There are plenty of good practice features right here on our forum. Start out with these and this will increase your speed with BS. After you're comfortable with that, then go to a $5 table and get accustomed to actual play. Bring a BS card with you so you can catch any possible mistakes while you're still at the table. Lastly, I wouldn't worry about any indices past the I-18 at this point. You don't need all the extra mental distractions yet. You can always add on later.

I've been practicing with the game linked here on this site (which btw isn't following my rules. I checked the rule hit on s17 and it isn't etc). Anyway, at this slow pace I can easily keep count. The problem is twofold. Remembering basic strategy is easy, remembering the indices isn't but I figure I'll learn those eventually (I have flash cards to practice at work- lots of down time <vbg>). My biggest problem is figuring out what to do when BS says to do one thing and I think the indices would probably tell me the opposite if I knew them all. For example, my TC was a +10 in a 6 deck game. I had a 16 and the dealer had a 8. BS says hit. My gut says w/ that many 10s left that my unmemorized index probably says stick. What should I do?. Always play BS if I don't have the index memorized, or try to account for what I think is common sense.

Also, when figuring the true count do you round up or down for betting purposes?. I think I read that you do for index purposes (round down that is) but I am not sure about either. I had an RC of 11 with about 2.5 shoes left and didn't know what to do with that.

 

[shadroch]

You can adjust the rules of the practice game to fit whatever game is your normal.Its on the first screen that pops up.
You can get by with very few indices for quite awhile. None in fact.

 

[BeeJay]

You can adjust the rules of the practice game to fit whatever game is your normal.Its on the first screen that pops up.
You can get by with very few indices for quite awhile. None in fact.

I am adjusting the rules on that page and it isn't remembering what I put in for some of them. It changes the # of decks and a few others like insurance, but it isn't remembering the soft 17 rule. I wonder if it isn't something about using a mac OS instead of Windows.

If I don't use any indices won't I be giving the house the advantage?

 

[EasyRhino]

Using indices will boost your win rate by something like 25% Or conversely, not using it cuts your win rate by 25%. But you can still have a winning game simply by betting enough in good counts.

 

[Kasi]

I am adjusting the rules on that page and it isn't remembering what I put in for some of them. It changes the # of decks and a few others like insurance, but it isn't remembering the soft 17 rule. I wonder if it isn't something about using a mac OS instead of Windows.

If I don't use any indices won't I be giving the house the advantage?

Seriously Beejay but I really would stay away from the whole thing, unless you want to practice count while betting the same way u do and maybe change a few playing decisions based on the count. That's fine. Have some fun. Alleviate the boredom. Lower the HA a little that way.

So far you've mentioned 1D, 2D and 6D games. All u ask about are I18 indices but never how to bet how much at what count. How much would u be betting at that TC+10 count in the DD game or the 6D game even before u get dealt some stiff? To bring $500, even betting to a $5K roll, might very well be disastrous.

With as much money as u make what would be "a little spending money"? How much money u think counting will bring u anyway and how much capital are u willing to lose in its entirety? Can u be a robot, more or less, with how u bet because all that add a chip or 2 when u r hot stuff goes out the window.

You like to read. You're interested. In the meantime spend a couple bets on those books and all the questions you've asked will be answered and u'll have some foundation to build on.

 

[BeeJay]

Seriously Beejay but I really would stay away from the whole thing, unless you want to practice count while betting the same way u do and maybe change a few playing decisions based on the count. That's fine. Have some fun. Alleviate the boredom. Lower the HA a little that way.

Answer- I'm not quite sure what you mean by that paragraph. Why would you suggest I stay away from counting (if indeed that's what you mean). Also, what is HA?

So far you've mentioned 1D, 2D and 6D games. All u ask about are I18 indices but never how to bet how much at what count.

A- that's because I already know that answer from reading. There is a bit of variation in exactly how much to raise the bet but in general I get that aspect.

How much would u be betting at that TC+10 count in the DD game or the 6D game even before u get dealt some stiff?

A- Probably 5 or 6 units for the DD and 10 to 12 for the 6D.

To bring $500, even betting to a $5K roll, might very well be disastrous.

A- Sure. That's why I don't plan on doing it until I learn more.

With as much money as u make what would be "a little spending money"? How much money u think counting will bring u anyway and how much capital are u willing to lose in its entirety?

A- not sure yet.

Can u be a robot, more or less, with how u bet because all that add a chip or 2 when u r hot stuff goes out the window.

A- I understand that, and yes I can be a robot. That's probably my one strength

You like to read. You're interested. In the meantime spend a couple bets on those books and all the questions you've asked will be answered and u'll have some foundation to build on.

A- I plan on getting at least 1 and probably several books. I'm asking all these questions to try to get a grasp on some of the methods so I can learn both my strengths and weaknesses as well as the strengths and weaknesses of different systems so I can make a more informed decision about which books to buy.

I chose to start w/ HILO b/c most of what I read said it is one of the better systems for getting bang for your buck with accuracy and ease of use considered (at least for 6D games which I would probably be playing most often). For 1d or 2D I was thinking maybe HIOpt1 would be good and easy to learn if I had the HILO as my initial basis.

One thing I am learning is that I count better (at least faster) at positive numbers so I plan to read about KISS or some similar unbalanced method soon aso that I can try it. Most of what I read said that unbalanced systems are not quite as accurate and that makes sense to me, which is why I wanted to start with HILO.

 

[BeeJay]

clarification

I guess I messed up the above reply a bit. This message board doesn't work like many of the others I use.

Anyway, half of my answers from your previous post are in the quoted section above.

 

[Kasi]

I guess I messed up the above reply a bit. This message board doesn't work like many of the others I use.

Anyway, half of my answers from your previous post are in the quoted section above.

Hey - no problem! You're answers were really good, I think anyway.

Just to warn you I'm pretty much a "theoretical" counter having never committed the necessary bankroll or time to actually do it. At least the way u r supposed to do it. Not to mention not having easy access to "better games". So I count, bet a little bigger if it's good but not near enough to make a big difference. Make a few index plays, mostly with flat bets. So take what I say with perhaps a big grain of salt.

The real card-counters here have probably alot better advice on the real world. Perhaps not. Basically, if u get to the point where u r sure, then there u r. You're ready.

And I mean sure!

HA is house advantage btw lol.

Good luck! Don't let me scare u! It ain't my money