Counting vs. Progressions. Put up or shut up...

[sagefr0g]

Note from the start that I'm speaking to this with my tail tucked firmly between my legs and my head bowed and am scuffing the the ground with the toes of my shoes....

sounds like you play blackjack :laugh:

I think I've heard this and certainly HAVE experienced it: High counts do not necessairly mean you are going to win more hands but it does mean that you can win more money in those situations if you ramp your bets properly. In fact, you'll most likely push a lot more 20's with the dealer in high count situations. High counts give the dealer just as high a chance of drawing the pair of Faces as you have. However, you will win MORE on the doubles, splits and Blackjacks at high counts than you will with low counts. That's where the money is and you are getting it out on the table when it is most advantageous to do so. Add to that the more frequent "busts" by the dealer when he does get those stiff hands and has to hit them with high cards likely to fall.

It isn't a lot of advantage, but it's there and can be proven mathematically.

IMHO thats well said. i always have trouble getting it through my thick head that it's not that we win more hands than normal but it's that we manage to win hands when we've raised our bets at those advantage times and that is where we make our money. and as you say we will win more on the doubles, splits and blackjacks at high counts than you will with low counts.
also i wonder doesn't a player acutally win more hands during high counts as compared to hands won during low counts in the long run? i have sims on this but can't seem to find them readilly. edit-- we should win slightly more hands as the result of proper basic strategy departures at appropriate indices. --end edit

i can understand how it would be that we have more blackjacks at high counts and win more as we are likely to have more money on the table but i would be interested to know if anyone can explain how it is that double downs and splits are more sucessful during high counts than low counts. i suppose part of it is that more money will tend to be on the table for those sucessful doubles and splits. but i'm wondering does one acutally win doubles and splits more often during high counts than during low counts?
another one i'm curious to better understand is how is it that winning insurance bets for card counters is considered such a great advantage. i realize that winning an insurance bet avoids a loss (at a time when significant money is likely on the table) so really the advantage is in essence realizing a push instead of a significant loss. no real gain but at least no significant loss.

 

[EasyRhino]

Insurance is most often described as a side bet, and that's the best way to think about it. Unmodified, the casino offers you a chance for a 2:1 payout on a result which has slightly less than a 33% chance of happening. This results in the house edge. When the count is high, that percent chance moves over 33% chance... would you want to play the game? Sure, that's what we're there for.

Now, I tried analyzing it holistically, along with the blackjack hand itself, and I couldn't figure it out.

 

[sagefr0g]

Insurance is most often described as a side bet, and that's the best way to think about it. Unmodified, the casino offers you a chance for a 2:1 payout on a result which has slightly less than a 33% chance of happening. This results in the house edge. When the count is high, that percent chance moves over 33% chance... would you want to play the game? Sure, that's what we're there for.

Now, I tried analyzing it holistically, along with the blackjack hand itself, and I couldn't figure it out.

not sure what you mean by analyzing it holistically...
how i understand it is that proper insurance betting is a good advantage for counters (ie taking insurance if true count >=+3) . also i know if you have a blackjack and the dealer does and you took insurance then you get even money... so thats good. then if you don't have blackjack and you take insurance and the dealer turns out having blackjack it's like a push. so you don't lose your bet which would probably be a pretty substantial bet at TC>=+3 . i guess thats the extent of the advantage.
it's kind of like a super surrender if you win the insurance bet.
what the quantification (ie %advantage) of the advantage from proper insurance betting is, i don't know.

 

[Mikeaber]

sounds like you play blackjack :laugh:

I can understand how it would be that we have more blackjacks at high counts and win more as we are likely to have more money on the table but i would be interested to know if anyone can explain how it is that double downs and splits are more sucessful

In high count situations, you (the player) are more likely to be getting face cards because the deck is rich in them. If you are unlucky enough to not get face cards but do pull the "eleven" instead, what is the most likely card you are going to draw? TEN. That's why doubles pay off more. Of course, high count situations are when you are most likely to double on eleven and draw that DAMNED Ace too!

Splits? I don't know. I've seen some ugly 18's but have also seen a lot of beautiful Aces split for 21's. Actually, it is not likely you'll be splitting much of anything else during high count situations because the dealer is most likely to have a face showing and that will kill most splits according to Basic Strategy. But if he doesn't have a Face showing, and you get an opportunity to split, then you are more likely to win because of the likelihood that he will bust (he can only have a 7, 8, or 9 to make a hand and 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 will give him a highly likely bust hand.)

At least that's the way this straw-in-the-hair country boy sees it.

 

[sagefr0g]

In high count situations, you (the player) are more likely to be getting face cards because the deck is rich in them. If you are unlucky enough to not get face cards but do pull the "eleven" instead, what is the most likely card you are going to draw? TEN. That's why doubles pay off more. Of course, high count situations are when you are most likely to double on eleven and draw that DAMNED Ace too!

Splits? I don't know. I've seen some ugly 18's but have also seen a lot of beautiful Aces split for 21's. Actually, it is not likely you'll be splitting much of anything else during high count situations because the dealer is most likely to have a face showing and that will kill most splits according to Basic Strategy. But if he doesn't have a Face showing, and you get an opportunity to split, then you are more likely to win because of the likelihood that he will bust (he can only have a 7, 8, or 9 to make a hand and 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 will give him a highly likely bust hand.)

At least that's the way this straw-in-the-hair country boy sees it.

yep that makes a lotta sense to me. thanks for the viewpoint. so many things one wonders about. it's good to play a winning game just going through the motions but having some understanding behind the where's and where fore's is even better.

squishing the :cow: manure tween my toes, listening to the creek bable as the crows fly through the clear blue sky