Courting the climbing count

[KewlJ]

Bosox, you've been drinking too much of the Genius' koolaid.

About a year ago, I was watching some BJ at a sketchy international casino. The cards were coming out like a Spanish deck and every shoe ended with a highly positive RC. So yes, that was detectable.

Recently, I was playing BJ and 5 aces came out in a row. Is there anything wrong with that? Probably not.

The Genius has been posting a long time and everything he writes is idiocy. I've detected that pattern, too.

Anything wrong with 5 aces in a row? Maybe....if it is a single deck game.

21forme, I have great respect for you, you know that. I consider you one of my few friends in this community. But certain people seem to really get under your skin. I won't mention the most obvious case, but BJgenius is also among that group. If they say the sky is blue, you are going to argue.

In addition there seems to be some sort of stigma with the term "beast mode" that BJgenius has used for a long time that seems to set people off. I am telling you just posting that phrase, seems to turn up the heat on this subject matter.

I personally don't like that phrase and like many, for a long time I dismissed BJgenius's claims as you and many still do. My feeling was that in this day and age, of the corporate run casinos, casinos had too much to lose. I decided that any kind of cheating done was done at an individual level rather than the casino level (think rouge dealer dealing seconds).

Unfortunately, I have personally seen and experienced too much that convinced me. And then other players, too many of them started having the same complaints. And I am talking legit, experienced players, not some goofball on numerous forums that screams he is being cheated at the drop of a hat. It convinced me to the point that I spent good money to look into it, to satisfy myself.

Looking into this subject matter has revealed some interesting things. Do you know there is a ASM manufacturer, not the popular manufacturer, but a smaller company that manufacturers machines that they will only provide to casinos abroad and Indian casinos here in the US. They will not provide their product to any casino in any state that has any kind of meaningful oversight. Why would that be?

Since I made my accusations late last summer, that upset some of my fellow AP's that were doing things that I hadn't considered, I have come across yet another of these situation with this ASM. This would be the third situation I have come across just here in Vegas. It lasted a few months and then that one was also gone. There are players here in Vegas looking for this situation now.

But I will tell you what, 21forme, my friend, the next time I encounter this situation, I will contact you privately with the information. You go play that table. Straight counting. And you report back your results and what you think. I'll bet it won't take long for you to change your mind. And again, I am talking straight counting, because I suspect, you being much smarter than I, it won't take you long to figure out how to beat it as the others had done, that are still annoyed with me.

 

[KewlJ]

And to get this thread back on topic, I frankly have never understood this obsession with climbing and falling counts. I get that when we identify a favorable plus count we really only realize that advantage when those 10's and aces actually come out. They may be that they are behind the cut card and don't come out. BUT THAT IS HINDSIGHT. We don't KNOW this until after the fact.

Card counting is about identifying an advantage for the next round based on cards that have been played. It is a snap shot in time. If I identify a running count of say +9 with a deck and a half to go (TC +6), there are more high value cards remaining in the cards to be played and I have the advantage on the next round based on this information which is the ONLY information we have. (snap shot in time).


Now lets go to the other part of this. Again let's say I am playing a 6 deck game dealt to 1 deck just for ease. There is 1.5 decks remaining and the running count is +9 (tc +6). Ok, so the count hasn't started falling so I don't increase my wager according to these falling count rules. So I am dealt a 20 vs the dealer 18. OK, 3 high value cards have come out, just like the count before that round indicated. But we didn't bet more to take advantage of it. So now the running count is +6 with still close to 1.5 decks remaining. (TC+4). So NOW it is time to start betting bigger because the high count is falling!! There is no more guarantee now that the high cards will continue to come out than there were before the last round. Maybe the rest are STILL behind the cut card.

All we have done is lost a favorable round that we had identified more high cards to be played. This falling count and high cards actually coming out is only something you can identify AFTER it happens, after the fact. That is NOT what card counting is. Card counting is identifying a surplus in remaining cards to be played based on information we have right at that moment.

 

[BoSox]

When I was a gambler is used to steam and bet too much. Now I am making the proper bet but these monster climbing counts quite often bite me bad.

Sounds like you still have not solved the steaming and over betting too much problem "quite often bite me bad" which does not sound good.

On another note, there are plenty of other more common ways of losing a session than continuing climbing high counts. Such as having high counts stay relatively the same by slowly declining as most of the good cards remain behind the cut card. Or having the running count falling only to see the dealer constantly getting the good cards and, or another player/players getting them instead of you, and the times you do get a good hand you push. Happens all the time.

One of the technique to combat beast mode ASM is to reduce bet spread while TC is climbing.

For the record, Dopple did not say what type of game he was playing against and there was a lot of assumptions made by you.