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[JohnCrover]

Huh?
Lose half the BR and reduce your ... spread??

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing...

 

[hitthat16]

I agree with your comments and loved the article too. Thanks for posting it hithat16. This brings up another one of my pet peeves with APs. Instead of saying "good luck", they like to say "good variance" or something to that effect. I get what they mean but it's done to show their smarter than the average guy. I have a good AP friend and we always say "good luck" when we go to a casino. Skill is important but it also helps to have some luck too....or in mainstream AP lingo "positive variance". Lol.

I’m not a big fan of “good variance” but I don’t tend to say “good luck” either. I usually find myself saying “good cards” or something of the like.

I could also do it like Bob Dancer and say “Go out and hit lots of blackjacks and doubles. Good day.”

 

[bjo32]

I’m not a big fan of “good variance” but I don’t tend to say “good luck” either. I usually find myself saying “good cards” or something of the like.

I could also do it like Bob Dancer and say “Go out and hit lots of blackjacks and doubles. Good day.”

Agreed! I like the way Bob Dancer closes his GWAE podcast by saying go out and hit a bunch of royal flushes, or something like that. Nothing fancy or too intellectual.

I've always felt "good variance" was being a little too cute and smug. I guess it's not as bad as saying something like "may the standard deviation be with you." This actually isn't a bad idea for the AP Star Wars crowd. Lol

 

[xengrifter]

thats what Kenny Uston said, he would halves his BR and maintain that 5% ruin if ...he would reduce his spread

Describe in personal terms how YOU approach this; give us an example please.

 

[JJP]

How this for a form of variance: clusterluck. Clusterluck is a term the analytics community has given us. It basically is about sequencing. For instance, two baseball teams have the same outcomes in one inning: a single, a double, and home run, 2 strikeouts and a popup. Team A scores 3 runs, Team B scores 1. The outcomes were identical, but the net result was completely different due to the sequencing of the events.

I had a losing session yesterday. But if I had a printout of every hand, I bet I won close to 50% of the hands. I probably got blackjacks close, or relatively close to 5% of the time. I won a number of double down and split hands. The problem? When I had my bigger wagers out, I lost the majority of them. The blackjacks were overwhelmingly in neutral or negative counts. High counts are great......as long as they eventually come down as the tens and aces come out. But when the cut card comes out and the count is still high? Not good.

 

[hitthat16]

The blackjacks were overwhelmingly in neutral or negative counts.

That’s unfortunately the case for everyone. The count is only in the player’s favor about 22 of every 100 hands. Most of your naturals are gonna be within those 78 house-advantaged hands.

High counts are great......as long as they eventually come down as the tens and aces come out. But when the cut card comes out and the count is still high? Not good.

This highlights how important penetration is.