Depth dependent BS

[Mimosine]

Has there been any effort at a shoe depth dependent BS?

e.g. 6 Deck shoe. let's say on a deeply dealt game (1 deck chop), when you get down to that last playable deck, so in essence 104 cards remain. On average the values of the cards in those two decks will be close to the values of cards in a straight up DD game.

Has anyone done an analysis to see if changing BS from a 6D strategy to say a DD strategy affects a BS players game?

Renzey? Kasi? Sonny? Anyone?

Index plays for counters would trump any change in BS, but for the average player, could the house edge be lowered, even by only 0.05% with a depth dependent strategy. I.E. for first 4 decks you play 6D BS, for last deck you play DD BS - or something like that....

Side note: I typically play the KO composite BS for 6D, DD, and SD games (i would modify a few BS plays when going at SD, but not a whole new table). but an upcoming trip to SD heaven has me learning a precise SD BS chart, learning it is pretty easy, no flashcards necessary, so would this help a BS player?

I guess this is a testament to my ignorance on the method of 6D BS generation. Does 6D BS assume the correct play off the top of the shoe, or is 6D BS an average of correct moves at varying positions in the shoe, (i.e. differential composition)?

 

[sagefr0g]

Has there been any effort at a shoe depth dependent BS?

e.g. 6 Deck shoe. let's say on a deeply dealt game (1 deck chop), when you get down to that last playable deck, so in essence 104 cards remain. On average the values of the cards in those two decks will be close to the values of cards in a straight up DD game.

Has anyone done an analysis to see if changing BS from a 6D strategy to say a DD strategy affects a BS players game?

Renzey? Kasi? Sonny? Anyone?

Index plays for counters would trump any change in BS, but for the average player, could the house edge be lowered, even by only 0.05% with a depth dependent strategy. I.E. for first 4 decks you play 6D BS, for last deck you play DD BS - or something like that....

Side note: I typically play the KO composite BS for 6D, DD, and SD games (i would modify a few BS plays when going at SD, but not a whole new table). but an upcoming trip to SD heaven has me learning a precise SD BS chart, learning it is pretty easy, no flashcards necessary, so would this help a BS player?

I guess this is a testament to my ignorance on the method of 6D BS generation. Does 6D BS assume the correct play off the top of the shoe, or is 6D BS an average of correct moves at varying positions in the shoe, (i.e. differential composition)?

this doesn't answer your question but k_c's program might provide you a lead as to your thinking. http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9752
thing is though there are so many ways the last few decks might end up composed after dealing through the first four or so it would seem difficult to have a basic strategy relating to such a situation. if i'm understanding what your getting at?

 

[Kasi]

I don't know lol.

I know one playing BS in a cut card game will suffer from a higher HA than if it were a CSM machine shuffling after every hand.

Pretty sure BS is generally developed just off the top of the deck(s).

But I suppose you have a point, that with 104 cards remaining, I'd guess on avg it is a DD game - like if TC was 0 at that point, it's not the same thing as if TC was 0 at the top. TC+1 is worth more at that point than earlier, maybe. Maybe that's that Floating Advantage stuff that I gather is real but, from a practical point of view, is hard to capitalize on in any way that matters much.

So, if you want, maybe explore that concept to see what's involved.

Probably haven't helped much but I think (that's a guess lol) your concept is sound.

 

[EasyRhino]

BS is always calculated "off the top" assuming that your hand and the dealer's are the first aftera shuffle.

I guess the floating advantage theorem (hypothesis, phenomenon, whatever, could conceivably come into play here. Make it a bit more extreme, you've got a 6D game, and it's dealt down to exactly 1D, and the running count is exactly zero. The house's advantage would now be the same as a single deck game, so should you use single deck BS?

As you already mention, any index plays would override these decisions, so should a civilian switch to a single deck BS? Should he suddenly stand if they get 7,7 v 10?

I have no idea, but I have a hunch it doesn't matter.

Floating advantage was shown to exist, but not matter. I think this would matter even less.

 

[Mimosine]

thanks for the thoughts.

it was just something i've been pondering in a week straight of prep for an upcoming trip. lots of ideas have been popping up...

 

[speth]

The house edge for BS does not decrease as the cards are depleted in a shoe or hand dealt game. So, in a 6D game, when there are only 104 cards left, the odds are still the same as they were at the beginning of the game. Think of it this way - Assume that in a 6D game, just before the freshly shuffled cards are placed in the shoe, the dealer takes the bottom deck (52 cards) and places it on top of the stack of cards, so that it is the first deck that is dealt. That event would not improve the player's odds when the game starts. The house's edge or the player's EV stays the same at all times as the deck or decks are depleted. The floating advantage concept only apples when a card counting system is employed. Don Schlessinger has addressed this very issue.

 

[sagefr0g]

The house edge for BS does not decrease as the cards are depleted in a shoe or hand dealt game. So, in a 6D game, when there are only 104 cards left, the odds are still the same as they were at the beginning of the game. Think of it this way - Assume that in a 6D game, just before the freshly shuffled cards are placed in the shoe, the dealer takes the bottom deck (52 cards) and places it on top of the stack of cards, so that it is the first deck that is dealt. That event would not improve the player's odds when the game starts. The house's edge or the player's EV stays the same at all times as the deck or decks are depleted. The floating advantage concept only apples when a card counting system is employed. Don Schlessinger has addressed this very issue.

interesting point IMHO. it's like it's really a what do we know and what don't we really know sort of issue.
what we know is ok here we have a six deck game and we know the basic strategy for a six deck game. and so if we are just using basic strategy and not counting or what ever to know more then ok even if we see four or five decks are now gone we still have no more knowledge about the nature of the pack left to be dealt other than it started out as a six deck game. so it's wise for us to stay with what we know and go with the six deck basic strategy even though it could be a fact that the remaining decks constitute a fresh double deck or single deck game. we just don't know and infact maybe more often than not the composition of the pack remaining to be dealt is way off from the nature of a fresh dealt double or single deck pack.

 

[Kasi]

The house edge for BS does not decrease as the cards are depleted in a shoe or hand dealt game....The house's edge or the player's EV stays the same at all times as the deck or decks are depleted.

Yes, but only if the same number of rounds are always dealt per shoe.

The HA actually increases above what BS would predict for a non-counting BS player if a cut-card is introduced.

Under certain circumstances the effect can be pretty dramatic for a BS player.

 

[Mimosine]

Think of it this way - Assume that in a 6D game, just before the freshly shuffled cards are placed in the shoe, the dealer takes the bottom deck (52 cards) and places it on top of the stack of cards, so that it is the first deck that is dealt.

rethought this issue over the past few days and agree. i was just musing on the subject the other day - perhaps too intently that i missed my obvious blunder. also in reading about combinatorial BS, i realized my mistake...

 

[sagefr0g]

Yes, but only if the same number of rounds are always dealt per shoe.

The HA actually increases above what BS would predict for a non-counting BS player if a cut-card is introduced.

Under certain circumstances the effect can be pretty dramatic for a BS player.

so maybe if you noticed the shoe has had a 'large' ratio of high cards to low cards than seems normal and your just playing basic strategy it might be a good idea to sit out the last few rounds or so?
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm

 

[Kasi]

so maybe if you noticed the shoe has had a 'large' ratio of high cards to low cards than seems normal and your just playing basic strategy it might be a good idea to sit out the last few rounds or so?

If you happened to notice such things, you just may not be a non-counting BS player lol.

If you are a non-counting BS player, just play the same number of rounds per shoe and enjoy the lower HA predicted by BS.

 

[sagefr0g]

......
If you are a non-counting BS player, just play the same number of rounds per shoe and enjoy the lower HA predicted by BS.

ok so but i just wonder what would be the 'magic' number of rounds to play or in other words how many rounds before the cut card comes out would the ceasing to play be optimal?

 

[Kasi]

ok so but i just wonder what would be the 'magic' number of rounds to play or in other words how many rounds before the cut card comes out would the ceasing to play be optimal?

Heck if I know lol.

Maybe 1 heads up - then you always have the constant HA off the top and comp-dependent plays would always be right. Guess that would be a CSM machine lol.

I guess it would change depending on number of players at table - I think the effect is worse with more players?

Maybe as long as you always got out before the cut-card round, you'd be OK?

But, you know, it's worse in single-deck maybe not so bad in multi-deck. Effect in double-deck might be something to look in to if you play a bunch of BS in it. Maybe a 50% cut-card matters alot less, not really sure. Seems reasonable lol.

Maybe you could sim a heads-up BS player playing one round before re-shuffle. Maybe, hopefully, the house edge actually would be the BS HA. Then do it again with a cut-card somewhere, maybe deep to start for max effect? Maybe do 7 rounds with the BS player and then do a 50% cut-card. Or anything in between.

 

[sagefr0g]

Heck if I know lol.

Maybe 1 heads up - then you always have the constant HA off the top and comp-dependent plays would always be right. Guess that would be a CSM machine lol.

I guess it would change depending on number of players at table - I think the effect is worse with more players?

Maybe as long as you always got out before the cut-card round, you'd be OK?

But, you know, it's worse in single-deck maybe not so bad in multi-deck. Effect in double-deck might be something to look in to if you play a bunch of BS in it. Maybe a 50% cut-card matters alot less, not really sure. Seems reasonable lol.

Maybe you could sim a heads-up BS player playing one round before re-shuffle. Maybe, hopefully, the house edge actually would be the BS HA. Then do it again with a cut-card somewhere, maybe deep to start for max effect? Maybe do 7 rounds with the BS player and then do a 50% cut-card. Or anything in between.

your right i could sim all that. just mainly interested for double deck but maybe six and eight as well. i know cvcx is great for adjusting the penetration of any given sim. but i'm not sure you can tell it ok just let the player play some given number of rounds. so but i got sage blackjack (no relation lmao) and i know it can do that.
so but ok i'm now wondering if just changing the penetration for some given sim would show this effect? or is that maybe apples and oranges.

 

[MGP]

The cut card actually helps the BS player. The wizard has a section on this on his bj page.

 

[QFIT]

The cut card actually helps the BS player. The wizard has a section on this on his bj page.

Cut card hurts all players.

 

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by MGP
The cut card actually helps the BS player. The wizard has a section on this on his bj page.

Cut card hurts all players.

isn't it maybe a csm with some number of decks might have a slightly lower edge against the basic strategy player than the same number of decks for a shoe game if both are the same rules?

 

[speth]

Yes, but only if the same number of rounds are always dealt per shoe.

The HA actually increases above what BS would predict for a non-counting BS player if a cut-card is introduced.

Under certain circumstances the effect can be pretty dramatic for a BS player.

Kasi, I believe what you are referring to is the cut-card effect. Yes, studies have shown that the use of a cut card increases the house edge - to a much lesser degree in multiple deck games. That is because when a lot of small cards are dealt, then more cards are used, and the number of rounds dealt before the shuffle may be less due to the quicker arrival of the cut card. In a SD game, with just one player, the player might only get 3 or 4 rounds before the shuffle if a lot of small cards have been dealt; whereas, if a lot of high cards have been dealt, the player might get say 4 or 5 rounds before the shuffle. In the latter situation, the BS player will almost always be playing against a greater house edge during the last round because the deck will be depleted of a lot of high (good) cards.

 

[bj bob]

In all cases?

Cut card hurts all players.

One would think that a shallow cut card in a shoe game would, in practice be beneficial to the BS player IF it were a hand shuffled game and thus it's more frequent appearance would necessitate a 4-6 min added delay in play time, resulting in a 10%-20% slower game and therefore lowering the "bite" rate of the -EV.
Wouldn't this scenario more than offset the negative effects of the the low card barrage at the end of a shoe?

 

[QFIT]

One would think that a shallow cut card in a shoe game would, in practice be beneficial to the BS player IF it were a hand shuffled game and thus it's more frequent appearance would necessitate a 4-6 min added delay in play time, resulting in a 10%-20% slower game and therefore lowering the "bite" rate of the -EV.
Wouldn't this scenario more than offset the negative effects of the the low card barrage at the end of a shoe?

Yes you could argue that. Of course you could also argue that catching the flu would be beneficial to the BS player by keeping him from the table.

Incidentally, it's not well known; but it matters little where the cut card is placed, early or late in the shoe. Most any placement of the cut card has about the same effect. OTOH, the effect of the cut card is increased when the number of players is increased.