'Dice Control' Denounced

[zengrifter]

Admin at BJFO posted this scathing denouncement of the whole Scobolete, Wong, et al Dice Control System. zg

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Subject : Craps validity
posted by admin BJForumOnline on 02-05-2007 16:18

Stanford Wong knows claims about dice control are controversial, and he knows the standards of mathematical proof in gambling. If he wanted to provide legitimate proof that dice control was real, he would have kept records on his throw results (or the results of someone else he regarded as skillful) to provide statistically significant data, instead of settling for vague claims about winning. He chose not to keep records.
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Professional gamblers who bought craps systems and courses from Wong and others have kept records of their play results over extended periods of time (more than a year). We are in direct touch with these players. They worked very hard at dice control, took repeated lessons from "experts," and still gave up the house edge over the long run.
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Steve Forte is not only one of the most skillful people at card and dice manipulation in the world, he also is in close touch with the rest of the most skillful dice manipulation people in the world. He knows plenty of people who have made money with dice scooting, but no one in the world who has made money with the type of dice control method sold by Wong, Scoblete, Sharpshooter and the rest. Nor do any of his dice friends know anyone who has won money with such a skill over the long term. Steve Forte himself put considerable time into trying to learn this type of dice control, and found it impossible. He never got statistically significant win results at it.

One of the dice control people who posts regularly on the Internet and has published a book on the subject was offered virtually unlimited backing by professional gamblers if he could simply show he could obtain statistically significant win results. At the edge he was claiming, it would have taken a few hours, but they were willing to give him a lot more time than that, because they would have been willing to back him if he could truly show even a very low edge. This skill, if it had been real, would have been worth millions to this person. The person refused to be tested, and instead took a relatively low-paying job with a non-reputable gambling publisher teaching craps seminars.

xxx

 

[captheathmalc]

Imagine that...someone selling a "sure-thing"...but not willing to be put to the test.

I'm not a dice-man...never have been. But I have often wondered if a mechanical arm threw the dice at the same angle, same force, and hit at the same (point of impact), if the dice would come-up the same everytime.

And if this were true, then what would be required to teach yourself to do this same thing on a consistent basis.

just a random thought.

 

[Sonny]

Imagine that...someone selling a "sure-thing"...but not willing to be put to the test.

Wong never claimed that dice control was a sure thing. He does claim that it takes at least 6 months to build up the skill, but he is very upfront about the known variance associated with all gambling.

In his book he describes the challenge that he accepted (and won) from many of the BJ21 Green Chippers. I think he put up $100,000 for that challenge, but I might be wrong. I'll check that when I get home.

I’m not saying that his system works, only that his claims are realistic. I can’t vouch for the others involved since I have not read their work. The game of craps can definitely be beaten, and I believe (although I have no proof) that dice control is one way to do it.

I'm not a dice-man...never have been. But I have often wondered if a mechanical arm threw the dice at the same angle, same force, and hit at the same (point of impact), if the dice would come-up the same everytime.

The theory behind dice control does not involve getting the same result every time. Mostly it involves trying to influence the outcome in a way that affects the odds. For example, if you can throw the dice in a way that makes a six come up 7/36th of the time or a twelve come up 1/35th of the time then you may have created an advantage on certain bets (and a bigger disadvantage on others).

The theory is that different dice sets and different tosses can reduce the chances of rolling certain numbers. It doesn’t matter if the outcomes are the same or not since you are still controlling the odds to some degree.

Here’s a link to an old discussion about craps:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2818

-Sonny-

 

[Sonny]

In his book he describes the challenge that he accepted (and won) from many of the BJ21 Green Chippers. I think he put up $100,000 for that challenge, but I might be wrong. I'll check that when I get home.

After further research:

Wong originally proposed a $10,000 challenge but later increased it to $100,000 in order to accommodate more people. However, in the end the GC’s didn’t cover the full amount and Wong only won $15,350 from the challenge. That’s not including the money he won at the tables.

I don’t claim that this is anything more than anecdotal evidence, but it sure is an interesting story!

-Sonny-

 

[ScottH]

Imagine that...someone selling a "sure-thing"...but not willing to be put to the test.

I'm not a dice-man...never have been. But I have often wondered if a mechanical arm threw the dice at the same angle, same force, and hit at the same (point of impact), if the dice would come-up the same everytime.

And if this were true, then what would be required to teach yourself to do this same thing on a consistent basis.

just a random thought.

I believe that the EXACT same throw under the EXACT same conditions would yield the same rusult every single time. I do not believe that anyone could ever do that, however.

 

[supercoolmancool]

I believe that the EXACT same throw under the EXACT same conditions would yield the same rusult every single time. I do not believe that anyone could ever do that, however.

I don't even think a machine under controlled conditions could land the same result every single time.

 

[ScottH]

I don't even think a machine under controlled conditions could land the same result every single time.

I agree with that. I am just saying that theoretically the exacat same throw under the exact same conditions should yield the same result. I agree that you could not even get a machine to be able to do that in controlled conditions.

 

[ChefJJ]

I agree with that. I am just saying that theoretically the exacat same throw under the exact same conditions should yield the same result. I agree that you could not even get a machine to be able to do that in controlled conditions.

Not on a casino craps table. The "requirement" to hit the back wall of the table, which is cushioned with diamond foam, basically takes any throw and "randomizes" it. Throw in chips on the layout and it's near impossible.


The quick and dirty:

The whole concept of dice control makes a ton of theoretical sense. It is based on picking a pre-roll "set" which is determined by the axis running through the middle of the two dice. There are 6 axes, and if the dice can be thrown and kept on that axis throughout the roll, the probabilities of the outcomes are different than the "random" throw. So, there are sets that emphasize inside numbers, horn numbers, hardways, etc.

The thing is, as I stated above, is it realistic to keep the dice on the preselected axis with the diamond foam and chips on the layout? Proponents say that if you can keep the dice on axis just a small fraction of the time and you are betting corresponds to the set, you can gain an advantage. My arguement is this: if you can keep the dice on the axis you want, say, 1 out of 6 rolls, what is to say that your "off-rolls" aren't putting you on an axis that has more than the standard probability for a 7. (screwing yourself)

So, can that 1 in 6 (if you are good) chance of keeping it on axis overcome the times you put in on a "bad axis"? Or does it just even out and put you back to standard probability? Obviously, some say it does, but I can't fathom it. Hell, some even preach that "rythym rollers" have an advantage over "random rollers". And what is a rythym roller? Someone who has a good tossing technique, but does not set up the dice.

Most craps players have seen some extremely long rolls, rolls done by just chucking the dice down the table. I love craps, but it is like other casino games in that it is just pure luck that lets you win. A good system and knowledge of the game can keep you away from bad bets, but only BJ really has a way to give you a true advantage.

Oh yeah, and there is no axis that cannot produce a 7...there are some that have a lower probability than 1/6, but not 0.

Good luck

I like this topic.

 

[ScottH]

...but only BJ really has a way to give you a true advantage.

That's not true! I'll just leave it at that...

 

[bj bob]

Influencing the dice...

Has become a pretty hot topic lately. It seems everyone wants the extra "edge" (ala Barry Bonds et al.) So why not? It's America!
This thread struck me for several reasons: One,Zg, from your previous posts, it seemed to me that you were lending credibility to this theory, as well as you ken. Have you guys changed your minds or have gotten fresh data to reverse your points of view? I for one, am still a believer.
Two, you do not have to influence the dice every 6th roll. We as BJ players live on a very thin edge of about 1-2% and talk in terms of hundreds to thousands of hands attempting to realistically "influence" about 5 hands in a hundred to yield an overall advantage. So too it would seem in craps, that altering a handfull of outcomes over a hundred rolls, bet properly, would yield an overall +EV. So, given that assumption, I believe it can be done with enough practice and coordination(that's the key).

 

[ScottH]

Has become a pretty hot topic lately. It seems everyone wants the extra "edge" (ala Barry Bonds et al.) So why not? It's America!
This thread struck me for several reasons: One,Zg, from your previous posts, it seemed to me that you were lending credibility to this theory, as well as you ken. Have you guys changed your minds or have gotten fresh data to reverse your points of view? I for one, am still a believer.
Two, you do not have to influence the dice every 6th roll. We as BJ players live on a very thin edge of about 1-2% and talk in terms of hundreds to thousands of hands attempting to realistically "influence" about 5 hands in a hundred to yield an overall advantage. So too it would seem in craps, that altering a handfull of outcomes over a hundred rolls, bet properly, would yield an overall +EV. So, given that assumption, I believe it can be done with enough practice and coordination(that's the key).

I really don't think it's practical to become a professional craps player using that method. If you're talented enough to do that, there are other easier methods out there!

 

[ChefJJ]

That's not true! I'll just leave it at that...

OK, that's fine. Out of all that, I made a mistake apparently. My bad. Are we that picky around here?

Good luck man

 

[ChefJJ]

Has become a pretty hot topic lately. It seems everyone wants the extra "edge" (ala Barry Bonds et al.) So why not? It's America!
This thread struck me for several reasons: One,Zg, from your previous posts, it seemed to me that you were lending credibility to this theory, as well as you ken. Have you guys changed your minds or have gotten fresh data to reverse your points of view? I for one, am still a believer.
Two, you do not have to influence the dice every 6th roll. We as BJ players live on a very thin edge of about 1-2% and talk in terms of hundreds to thousands of hands attempting to realistically "influence" about 5 hands in a hundred to yield an overall advantage. So too it would seem in craps, that altering a handfull of outcomes over a hundred rolls, bet properly, would yield an overall +EV. So, given that assumption, I believe it can be done with enough practice and coordination(that's the key).

But you have to understand that for every 6th or 12th or whatever fraction roll that you do POSITIVELY influence, how many are you NEGATIVELY influencing? When BJ players make a move because of an apparent edge, we are taking advantage of a possible in-favor situation. Dice influencing is trying to MAKE an in-favor situation. I'd shoot out there to say that for every situation a dice influencer tries to make positive, there is at least one time that he/she is making negative.

Interesting topic...always a "theoretical" debate.

 

[ScottH]

OK, that's fine. Out of all that, I made a mistake apparently. My bad. Are we that picky around here?

Good luck man

I didn't mention that to be a jerk, I mentioned that because it's a valuable thing to know if you want to be an AP. Learning that there are other ways of beating the casino is one of the best things you can discover. Do with it what you will.

 

[bj bob]

More theory

But you have to understand that for every 6th or 12th or whatever fraction roll that you do POSITIVELY influence, how many are you NEGATIVELY influencing? When BJ players make a move because of an apparent edge, we are taking advantage of a possible in-favor situation. Dice influencing is trying to MAKE an in-favor situation. I'd shoot out there to say that for every situation a dice influencer tries to make positive, there is at least one time that he/she is making negative.

Interesting topic...always a "theoretical" debate.

Let's try this simple scenario just to demonstate the massive effect of a rather "minor" influence caused by dice control.
You are shooting dice and have been practicing "overshooting" your favorite number "11". You know that with enough repetitions, you can throw an 11 two extra times in 180 attempts which is less than 1% influence. You now go up to the table and place $10 on the YO ELEVEN for 180 rolls. Your total outlay will be $1,800 and your expected mathematical result will be $1,500 in return, since the payout is 15:1 your net loss=-$300..pretty pathetic,heah? especially given the fact that an eleven bet=-11.11% house advantage. However, if you now factor in the two measley extra 11's you throw during this session, you are now being paid off 12x $150=$1,800! You are now playing EVEN, any more than that and you're really making money. Needless to say, there are many more advantageous bets than the one I've outlined here, but it is very simple to follow and compute.

 

[ChefJJ]

I didn't mention that to be a jerk, I mentioned that because it's a valuable thing to know if you want to be an AP. Learning that there are other ways of beating the casino is one of the best things you can discover. Do with it what you will.

No offense taken at all, I was joking too. It's all good...I know that stuff like video poker can be beaten, but it sucks to play. I like to win, but having fun is just as important to me. That's why I have learned so much about dice and "dice influencing". Craps is an exciting game for the most part, but these dudes are making so much more with their systems, classes, DVDs, etc.

My big question to those guys has always been: Why spread the word on how to beat the game of craps when you could keep it on the down low and keep making your money. If it really did work, wouldn't the house have countermeasured it by now? I know that's not the only reason against dice influencing, but it's one of them.

Several years ago I spent some time learning about the concept and posting with those "big guys". A big one with a message board these days is Heavy, and he now charges money to belong to the board. Anyhow, people like me who learned about it started questioning it with genuine curiousity. Then it turned into this whole "if you're not a believer..." crap.

I've gotten off on a tangent, but the whole dice setting thing has always been one of those "Mystery of Atlantis" type of thing...you know, sounds really cool, but probably isn't true.

No problem at all Scott, but what do you mean "if I want to be an AP"? I don't do it for a living, but I play like one :grin: (Just a joke again)

 

[ScottH]

The idea is that you always want to keep an open mind about what can be beat in the casino. I used to think blackjack was the only way, but once I realized if you keep your eye open all kinds of really great ideas and oppurtunties have come my way. Just keep one eye open for other non-blackjack ways to take the casinos money. You said you like to have fun, nothing is more fun that taking money from the casino in a game that noone thinks is beatable!

So you don't have to actively search out for other methods to beat the casino, but if you are simply aware that there are other ways and you keep one eye open to these possibilities, you may just come upon something great.

 

[ChefJJ]

Let's try this simple scenario just to demonstate the massive effect of a rather "minor" influence caused by dice control.
You are shooting dice and have been practicing "overshooting" your favorite number "11". You know that with enough repetitions, you can throw an 11 two extra times in 180 attempts which is less than 1% influence. You now go up to the table and place $10 on the YO ELEVEN for 180 rolls. Your total outlay will be $1,800 and your expected mathematical result will be $1,500 in return, since the payout is 15:1 your net loss=-$300..pretty pathetic,heah? especially given the fact that an eleven bet=-11.11% house advantage. However, if you now factor in the two measley extra 11's you throw during this session, you are now being paid off 12x $150=$1,800! You are now playing EVEN, any more than that and you're really making money. Needless to say, there are many more advantageous bets than the one I've outlined here, but it is very simple to follow and compute.

I absolutely agree with that analysis, but none of the proponents ever address when your attempts "fail". By that, I mean that you end up on an axis that completely contradicts what you are shooting for. I.e. you increase the probability of the 7 coming. Do you subtract that EV? They never do.

And you don't set the dice for an 11 necessarily...I believe that the axis that emphasizes the 11 also emphasizes 2, 3, and 12. Can't exactly remember, but it may increase the 7 coming up too. Nonetheless, betting the 11 is a bad bet anyhow. I know where you are coming from...good stuff.

 

[ChefJJ]

The idea is that you always want to keep an open mind about what can be beat in the casino. I used to think blackjack was the only way, but once I realized if you keep your eye open all kinds of really great ideas and oppurtunties have come my way. Just keep one eye open for other non-blackjack ways to take the casinos money. You said you like to have fun, nothing is more fun that taking money from the casino in a game that noone thinks is beatable!

So you don't have to actively search out for other methods to beat the casino, but if you are simply aware that there are other ways and you keep one eye open to these possibilities, you may just come upon something great.

Like dice influencing? If that is what you are saying, trust me I've been on that for years. Spending many hours researching it, testing, doing it at the casino, doing the numbers, theory, etc.--that comes from having an open mind and wanting it to work.

Now, if you're talking about video poker, pai gow, etc. I'm open minded, just not necessarily willing to play that stuff at this time

 

[bj bob]

Upon further clarification....

I absolutely agree with that analysis, but none of the proponents ever address when your attempts "fail". By that, I mean that you end up on an axis that completely contradicts what you are shooting for. I.e. you increase the probability of the 7 coming. Do you subtract that EV? They never do.

And you don't set the dice for an 11 necessarily...I believe that the axis that emphasizes the 11 also emphasizes 2, 3, and 12. Can't exactly remember, but it may increase the 7 coming up too. Nonetheless, betting the 11 is a bad bet anyhow. I know where you are coming from...good stuff.

If you've read (and I'm sure you have) the theory of dice setting, it states that some people, because of there own personal mechanics, tend to throw certain patterns that are not the "textbook" outcomes of the classic "V" setup. Every major league pitcher has a different "rip" on his fastball, some sink, some cut, and others jerk etc. So too with any human attempt at trajectory. I'm sure all you golfers can attest to that. So what I'm saying is that your throw may deviate from the desired textbook result, but may result in another consistent outcome; and since craps offers unlimited bets on any combination, you can take advantage of any combination or tendency.
As far as casino countermeasures, try setting the dice at the Atlantis in Reno. Ouch! My knuckles still hurt.