Did anyone tried this
- Thread starter keenen
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LeonShuffle
Well-Known Member
Or you could save yourself the time of driving to the casino and just throw your money out the window.
LeonShuffle
Well-Known Member
The "Never bust" strategy turns a house edge of half of one percent (using basic strategy) into one of almost 4 percent. Why do you think playing 7 hands would make that any different?
Brilliant guess!
Do you really think nobody has thought of this before? Save yourself a bit more time and effort thinking about other equally worthless strategies:
(Courtesy of the Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack)
Bad Strategies
Three popular bad strategies encountered at the blackjack table are never bust, mimic the dealer, and always assume the dealer has a ten in the hole. All three of these are very bad strategies. Following are my specific comments on each of them, including the house edge under Atlantic City rules (dealer stands on soft 17, split up to 4 hands, double after split, double any two cards) of 0.43%.
Never bust: For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would never hit a hard 12 or more and based all other decisions on maximizing expected value under this assumption. This results in a house edge of 3.91%.
Mimic the dealer: For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would always hit 16 or less and stand on 17 or more. The player as well as dealer stood on soft 17. The player never doubled or split, since the dealer is not allowed to do so. This results in a house edge of 5.48%.
Assume ten in the hole: For this strategy I first figured out the optimal basic strategy under this assumption. If the dealer had an ace up I reverted to the proper basic strategy assumption of assuming the dealer did not have a ten. Then I went back and used this strategy under regular playing conditions. This results in a house edge of 10.03%.
becuz... if we play NEVER BUST strategy.... that means we'll never bust right?
and if the dealer bust... we'll be 7times our initial bet....
we're using the same deck so that means we have the same pourcentage of winning..
if dealer stops at 17 .. it doesn't mean that he'll win all my 7 hands.... either 18,19,20, or even 21....
but once he bust... we'll win 7 hands...
so as i've tried.. it was..
1 st game + 7 ( dealer bust )
2 nd game + 4 ( win 2 lose 5 )
3 rd game + 5 ( win 4 lose 3 )
4 th game + 10.5 ( win 6 with Blackjack and lose one )
and so on....
i know that u don't agree with me.. but .. just wanna make sure..
cuz i've tried with 7 decks... and always the same way of playing....
and if the dealer bust... we'll be 7times our initial bet....
we're using the same deck so that means we have the same pourcentage of winning..
if dealer stops at 17 .. it doesn't mean that he'll win all my 7 hands.... either 18,19,20, or even 21....
but once he bust... we'll win 7 hands...
so as i've tried.. it was..
1 st game + 7 ( dealer bust )
2 nd game + 4 ( win 2 lose 5 )
3 rd game + 5 ( win 4 lose 3 )
4 th game + 10.5 ( win 6 with Blackjack and lose one )
and so on....
i know that u don't agree with me.. but .. just wanna make sure..
cuz i've tried with 7 decks... and always the same way of playing....
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Right, but you'll also never hit anything higher than 11 so you'll rarely have a decent hand. The only way you will win is if you are dealt a good hand in your first two cards or the dealer busts. In all other cases the dealer will beat you. That is why the house edge is as high as 4% for this strategy.keenen said:
Nope. The dealer is hitting until he has a good hand while you are not. That means the dealer will win many more hands than you.keenen said:
Unfortunately, the dealer does not bust often enough to make this a winning strategy. You will lose all 7 hands most of the time. The research has already been done and the sims have been run decades ago. This system does not work.keenen said:
-Sonny-
i don't really understand what you trying to say... ? ^^tedloc said:
what do u mean by .. If i pay one hand of 10$ and win 70$ ( how can i win 70$ when i'm only playing 10$ )
what i'm trying to say is .. always play with the same amount of money without raise or decrease... ... always take when it's below 12... no matter what dealer has .... once i get over 11 ... then i stop.. ( never bust strategy )
so that means .. IF DEALER bust... ( without any exception ) bank has to PAY every hand ... but if dealer doesn't bust ... maybe he can get 17, 18, 19, 20 or even 21...... it doesn't mean all my 7 hands are LOSING... so in a long run.. i will win...? BUT I NEED MORE CALCULATION ( since it's ALL MATH ) need STATs professional
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
Remember the average dealer hand ends up being 18.5. So in order to win at blackjack in the long run you must have your average hand at 19 or better. Standing on all those stiffs against a dealer 10 won't win you very much over the long run.
ya.. that's what i'm trying to say tootedloc said:
i play 7 hands .. if dealer bust.. for sure i win 7 hands.. right? but even deal has 17 .. or 18.. it doesn't mean i lose all 7 hands...
becuz maybe i have 3 win 1 tie and 3 lose..
so that means this game i'm tie...
... deal bust's percentage is 100% more than me ~
me bust = 0%
Keenan, bud. This is is not really a topic for discussion. At house edge of 3.91% you will lose, no ifs ands or buts. Also, please take the following into consideration: BJ has been in America since the 20's. It is the biggest casino game played by millions every year, and casinos make 2 billion dollars a year from BJ alone. Do you really think if you just hit on 11 and below you can make money? That no one has ever thought about that? How do you think the casino pays it $3000 in wages and $1000 in electric bills every hour... because people are taking their money with that super BJ strategy? Let me throw one number at you. A dealers Ace only busts 17% of the time, after they check for BJ. That's 1 in 8 times. Now... do you still want to stay on that 12?mickpk said:
Study a simple chart, and you can improve on that strategy by 800%. Try counting and you can beat the casinos.
:cow:
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Sonny
Well-Known Member
You said that you would win 7 times your initial bet when the dealer busts, but you won't. You will bet $70 (7 hands of $10 each) and you will win $70. That is an even money payout, not 7:1. In order to win 7 times your initial bet you would have to win $70 * 7 = $490 per round. Instead, you should expect to lose about $2.80 on each round because the house has such a huge advantage over you.keenen said:
Trust us, this is a terrible strategy. Not only does it increase the house edge by a factor of 8 (from 0.5% to 4%), you are playing 7 hands which is 7 times more money. You are losing your money 57 times faster than a regular player!
If beating the casinos was this easy they wouldn't be so big, would they?-Sonny-
Mikeaber
Well-Known Member
Sorry Keenun. This is such a popular misconception that the Wizard Of Odds even comments on it:
"Never bust: For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would never hit a hard 12 or more and based all other decisions on maximizing expected value under this assumption. This results in a house edge of 3.91%."
A house edge of 3.91% cause by using this never bust strategy increases your disadvantage from .65% in most 6-deck games. That means you are giving the house an addition 3-1/3% advantage over you!
"Never bust: For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would never hit a hard 12 or more and based all other decisions on maximizing expected value under this assumption. This results in a house edge of 3.91%."
A house edge of 3.91% cause by using this never bust strategy increases your disadvantage from .65% in most 6-deck games. That means you are giving the house an addition 3-1/3% advantage over you!