Diet systems & card counting systems

[bernard perlman]

Question:What do diet plans and Blackjack card counting systems have in common?
Answer: They all work. Some just a little better than others.
Card counting systems that include aces in the count are more powerful in finding favorable situations than the systems that count aces as zero. On the other hand, the systems that count aces as zero, are stronger for making playing decisions.
Some Pro's prefer to keep a side count of aces and use a count that assigns a value of zeros to aces. I developed a count that I've been using for 25 years now and I'm very comfortable with it.
I use a three level point count that I developed by simplifying Thorpe's Ultimate point count. I count aces as -2 so this count is as good as it gets at finding favorable suituations but leaves something to be desired when it comes to how to play your hand.
In order to compensate for this, I use a simplfied tens count concurrently with the point count. The end result is I get the best of both worlds. By comparing my true point count to my ten count I get to make the best possible decisions in how to play my hand. As an added bonus, my system plays perfect insurance.
Pro's that know me love to play at my table because they get perfect insurance by just following my lead when the dealer has an ace showing.
Learning to play two counts concurrently takes practice but I have many clients that are doing it and are doing quite well. It takes about 100 hours of practice for a newby to get up to speed. Experienced counters can get up to speed in about 20 hours.
[email protected]

 

[jetace]

Only 12 payments of 9999.99!!!

 

[Sonny]

The end result is I get the best of both worlds. By comparing my true point count to my ten count I get to make the best possible decisions in how to play my hand. As an added bonus, my system plays perfect insurance.

So what is the BC and PE of your system? We know that the IC is 1.0, but is your system really worth the extra effort?

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

Question for QFIT!!

So what is the BC and PE of your system? We know that the IC is 1.0, but is your system really worth the extra effort?

-Sonny-

It might be easier to detirmine the SCORE, by first simming both and then combining the best equivalents of both pursuant to some formula, and then subtractiong a reasonable percentage for player error.

This reminds me of similar debates over the years: like whether two people combined as a 'super-system' at one table are stronger than two HiLoLite players combined at seperate tables (NO); or the counter who can count two shoes simultaneously with KO and then wong-in on one vs. the same counter employing Advanced Omega with maultiparameter adjusts for As/7s/8s counting just one shoe at a time (the KO two shoe player wins hands down).

So, we'll see. I will say this: If I could keep two simultaneous counts as described... I WOULD! zg

 

[E-town-guy]

He never explained his simplified ten count, probably comes with the price of admission.

Most counters on here, including the pros, are here to help eachother out at no cost. Help someone out this time, learn something new the next time.

 

[zengrifter]

He never explained his simplified ten count, probably comes with the price of admission.

Most counters on here, including the pros, are here to help eachother out at no cost. Help someone out this time, learn something new the next time.

The simplified tens-count is typically a +/- wherein 10s=-2 and all others= +1, or similar. zg

 

[steve mitchell]

keeping two counts

Hey guys. I'm not selling anything. Rather than use the Thorpe ten count which is 36 non tens to 16 tens (it entails keep track of two counters) in a one deck game, I use the simplified ten count, only one counter) which as Zen said is: tens count as -2 and non tens count as + 1.
The ratio of tens to non tens off the top in a one deck game is 36 non tens / 16 tens which is 2.25. If you remove 4 non tens off the top of the deck your ratio is now 32,16 or 2.0. Slightly favorable and an exactly even bet for insurance.
I could simply start at zero with the tens count and when it gets to +4 regardless of where I am in the deck I know that the ratio is 2.0. I choose to start at 16 instead of zero because I don't want to deal with negative numbers. When the count reaches 20, I'm at 2.0. Since I'm using a 3 level point count, dealing with 2 more counters or one more counter that can go negative is ,more than my humble brain can deal with.
when playing more than one deck, simply multiply the number of decks by 4 to get the factor. The factor in a two deck game is 4 x 2 decks = 8. I choose to start my tens count in a two deck game at 22. When it hits 30, I'm at 2.0.
Ok. Is it worth the trouble? To guys like Zen and I, we want to get all the best of it so it is. To others, simple is better. A simple point count is so easy. a child could learn to use and it plays a winning game.
So,Jetace, keep the $9999 and buy yourself a good used car.

 

[jetace]

If I had the 9999, I'd use it for my bankroll, and up my bets.

Having two counts, one being level three, I think you'd pretty much have to avoid the confusion with negative numbers. Keeping a side ace count is hard enough. Of course, with enough practice it is surprising what is possible.

I'm curious though, how many indexes do you have memorized to go along with your counts? That seems like quite a feat. Pretty impressive Mr. Perlman, I mean Mr. Mitchell, wait, not only do you have two counts, but two identities as well?

 

[Sonny]

Ok. Is it worth the trouble? To guys like Zen and I, we want to get all the best of it so it is. To others, simple is better.

True, but there are much better ways to “get the best of it” at the tables. Using a super count like that will not increase your BC more than a few hundredths of a percent (if at all). It can increase your PE by a few tenths of a percent if used correctly, but that won’t add much to your win rate in multi-deck games. In fact, if it causes the player to play slower than it may actually decrease their overall win rate since they are playing less hands per hour.

If you want to increase your win rate by much more than a few tenths of a percent then there are much better things to do at the tables. Playing faster can give you a huge advantage and is very easy to do. Playing an extra 5 hands per hour can increase your win rate by 5%, which is much more than any extra side counting will do. Little tricks like ace cutting, sequencing/steering, and tracking can give you huge advantages over the casino in the range of 2-20%. Also, counting two adjacent tables (as ZG described) will increase your advantage dramatically (around 70% in many cases). If you use all your brainpower on keeping the count, you are missing out on so many opportunities at the tables. I think that is why most players stick with simple systems. They can add new techniques around it instead of upgrading to a more difficult counting-only strategy. There is no doubt that a super counting will “get the better of it” but to “get the BEST of it” sometimes involves diversifying and finding better advantage opportunities.

Hey ZenGrifter, didn’t you used to use a modified Hi-Opt II with a side count of sevens (along with the side count of aces) back in your early years? I remember you used to talk about multi-parameter strategies for a while. Have you found the switch to Zen more rewarding?

-Sonny-

 

[steve mitchell]

keeping 2 counts

of course, hands per hour is a major component of a winning strategy. A pro, regardless of the counting system he employs can play his game without slowing down at all, flirt with the dealer and cocktail waitress, pick his nose and scratch his butt,and still pick up at least 1 big bet an hour, and maybe the cocktail waitress as well.
Simple may be better but it's interesting that Pro's that know me love to play at my table to get free insurance perks. I guess there are many out there that are always trying to get something for nothing.

 

[Sonny]

A pro, regardless of the counting system he employs can play his game without slowing down at all, flirt with the dealer and cocktail waitress, pick his nose and scratch his butt,and still pick up at least 1 big bet an hour, and maybe the cocktail waitress as well.

Not if the waitress sees him picking his nose and scratching his butt! :laugh: But yes, I agree.

Simple may be better but it's interesting that Pro's that know me love to play at my table to get free insurance perks. I guess there are many out there that are always trying to get something for nothing.

Damn right! Myself included. I once taught my girlfriend (at the time) the tens count so she could signal to me the perfect time for insurance (exploitive, huh?:devil: ). The sims showed a small 0.04% gain using this method. However, I later decided to teach her Hi-Lo so that she could play at another table while I was playing. This gave me a larger 80% gain using this method. Later I taught her a count system that I developed for a specific side bet. That method gave a HUGE 150% gain. Now that the side bet is gone (burned out :sad: ) I have her playing Hi-Lo again at the next table. We signal each other into hot shoes and act as spotters for each other. This gives me closer to a 100% gain. I just can't justify her using the tens count anymore.

I think that simpler is always better (just my opinion here). You can count your brains out until you’re blue in the face, but it is much easier to keep track of one ace per shoe and give yourself a 30-50% advantage on that hand. I think it is much more rewarding as well. There is certainly nothing wrong with using a much more accurate counting system, I just think there are simpler and more lucrative things to use your brain for at the tables. Again, this is all just my opinion. :cow: (Nobody ever uses the cow, do they?)

-Sonny-

 

[bernard perlman]

I have 2 questions, Sonny.
1. How do you get a 50% advantage tracking 1 ace?
2. Does your girl friend have an available older sister?

 

[Sonny]

1. How do you get a 50% advantage tracking 1 ace?

Getting an ace as one of your first two cards gives you just over a 50% advantage on that hand (discussed in Grosjean’s Beyond Counting). I would say that a 20-30% advantage is more reasonable in the real world since you will occasionally have trouble steering that ace to yourself.

2. Does your girl friend have an available older sister?

Hey, I’m no fool. She’s my wife now!
Unfortunately she does not have a sister. And if she did, I would move to Utah, become a Mormon, marry them both and start a blackjack team!

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

I would say that a 20-30% advantage is more reasonable in the real world since you will occasionally have trouble steering that ace to yourself.

I would be happy with 1 in 5! zg

 

[ScottH]

I think that simpler is always better (just my opinion here). You can count your brains out until you’re blue in the face, but it is much easier to keep track of one ace per shoe and give yourself a 30-50% advantage on that hand. -Sonny-

Where can I find out more about ace tracking? Is it hard? And do you really know you are getting an ace? I wouldn't want to make a large bet expecting an ace and not have it come.

 

[Sonny]

Where can I find out more about ace tracking?

Get The Edge At Blackjack - John May (brief description, but enough to get the idea)
Blackjack Ace Prediction - David McDowell (complete treatment of sequencing)
Blackjack Blueprint - Rick Blaine (complete chapters on location plays and zone tracking)
Shuffle Tracker’s Cookbook - Arnold Snyder (haven’t read it, but heard good things)
MIT Advanced Techniques DVD (a demonstration of ace cutting similar to tracking)
Do a Google search

Is it hard?

Yup! It requires a lot of practice to get the hang of it, even more work scouting casinos for good conditions, and a great deal of work developing a strategy for a particular casino’s shuffling style. It is not easy, but nothing that gives you that much of an advantage is.

And do you really know you are getting an ace? I wouldn't want to make a large bet expecting an ace and not have it come.

Well, you’re going to be disappointed. Just like with card counting, there will be plenty of times where you miss the ace or lose even when you get the ace. You will never know that you are getting an ace. Just like card counting, you will be estimating. You may know, for example, that you have an 80% chance of seeing an ace in the next two cards, so you spread to two hands to get it. That gives you a 52% advantage on one hand and a -0.5% disadvantage (or whatever the house edge is) on the other. That is an overall edge of over 51%. Since you only have an 80% chance of getting the ace, you actual advantage is closer to 40%. Still, that’s a hell of a lot better than putting out a max bet at a 2% advantage, right?

That is a very oversimplified example, but it should give you the general idea of how the technique works. More information is available from the sources above.

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

Example of Ace Tracking

Complete post here - http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=737
Excerpted from Barfarkel's Spring Trip Report...

Grif has been doing some informal ace tracking lately so, at the top of every shuffle, he’d whisper to me "ten of clubs, six of hearts, eight of spades," or some-such. I found it difficult to watch for these key cards that would precede the aces and still keep my count at the same time. But we muddled through regardless. I soon gave up on key-card tracking and just concentrated upon the count and simply increased my bets and number of spots when I saw Grif doing likewise in unusual situations. Since he has practiced this new technique, I’d just depend on him to alert me when aces were due to come out.

...During this session, The Grifter whispered to me, "two of spades," when he saw the dealer scoop two aces in front of that key card. About three rounds into the next shuffle, I saw the two of spades come out on the next-to-last card dealt on that round, and nudged Grif, who had seen it too, and nodded. Before the next round, and despite a true count of minus three, The Grifter, strategically positioned at first base, spread to two spots, with max bets on each. I spread to two spots of only $50 each, kind of hedging my bets. The essence of key-card ace prediction is that those two aces should soon follow that two of spades-key card. In this case, Grif was following what is called a "super-key-card," a key card followed by two aces. We would hope to catch one or both as the first cards of our hands, and then hopefully catch a ten on that.

Unbelievable! Two max bets on a minus three count, and The Grifter caught both aces with matching tens! Grif flipped over the two blackjacks and announced in mock dismay that, "The odds of getting two blackjacks at the same time are 500-1 and these bastards are only paying me 3 for 2!"

--end excerpt---

 

[jetace]

"The odds of getting two simultaneous blackjacks are 500-1 and these bastards are only paying me 3-2!"

Haha, what a line, that rocks!!!