Do any of you guys KNOW the cards?

[daddybo]

This probably should be in the voodoo forum. I'm an AP player and have been for many years. Over time I have discovered something that I can't pin down mathematically. Here goes... don't laugh too hard. Often when I'm playing I know what the next card is before it's dealt. As far as I can tell it comes from seeing a pattern in the previously dealt cards. I can't make it happen at will but when it happens, I know it. And often it happens at least once or twice an outing. Occasionally though, not for many sessions. I know it sounds like BS, but I've done it with my kids many times. Any body else ever had that kind of thing happen? Some of it I can attribute to probability... i.e a 6-5 against Dealer A.. take Insurance because I know the 10 is next (I double down of course) even though its against the index. the ones that have me puzzled are the 5,6,7,As and 8s that I see. -- Any way calculating my action and winnings it works out to 3.75 % over the long haul. The only reason I'm being stupid enough write this is because I just won 27 hands in a row for a total of 28 out of 30 hands. (My game was abruptly ended at that point). Just wanted to throw it out there... its been troubling me for some time. - daddybo

P.S. yes i've done the factorials and permutations. It's not logically possible.

 

[callipygian]

calculating my action and winnings it works out to 3.75 % over the long haul

Are you sure you're playing to the long run?

I just won 27 hands in a row for a total of 28 out of 30 hands. (My game was abruptly ended at that point).

On a logical level, this has nothing to do with what you first posted. Just because you know the next card doesn't mean you're going to win an overwhelming majority of hands. For example, if you're dealt T9 and the dealer TT and the next card is a 6, it doesn't matter what you do. Stiff vs. dealer 10 is the most common of scenarios, and often, it doesn't matter what you do.

Having perfect knowledge of the next card is very different from winning consistently or knowing when you're going to win.

If you believe you can win consistently or know when you're going to win, your best bet is to simply push all-in when you think you're going to win, and min bet when you think you're going to lose. You should become a millionaire shortly - correctly doubling your bets during your 27-hand winning streak would have turned you from a $10 bettor into a billionaire ($1.34 billion). An hour at the casino with this strategy should very quickly tell you whether you're a good predictor of when you're going to win.

If you believe you can know the next card, you should keep rigorous statistics on every prediction that you make. Remember, you should guess correctly about 1/3 of the time with tens, so simply guess ten or other and keep track of 500 or so hands. If you've guessed right more than half of the time, there's a good chance you're psychic.

 

[bj bob]

If you've guessed right more than half of the time, there's a good chance you're psychic.

He already knew that, Calli.:laugh::laugh:

 

[daddybo]

Yeah, I know..

Are you sure you're playing to the long run?



On a logical level, this has nothing to do with what you first posted. Just because you know the next card doesn't mean you're going to win an overwhelming majority of hands. For example, if you're dealt T9 and the dealer TT and the next card is a 6, it doesn't matter what you do. Stiff vs. dealer 10 is the most common of scenarios, and often, it doesn't matter what you do.

I well understand that. That's why you can have terrible losing streaks, no matter the count etc.. because the next card(s) aren't going to help a bit. Been there and done that. To clarify... 99 percent of the time I don't play on what I think I know.. for lots of obvious reasons. I usually just stick to the strategy. But sometimes it's hard to resist and I do it for the sake of the experiment, if it's not a play that'll get me backed off! (Like doubling an 8-6 against a D-6 because I think know the next one is a 7.) I don't claim to know every card.. just these seemingly random opportunities that pop up.

FYI: on the 27 hand streak... the deck was mostly negative.. it was just luck. Something like a .000000014% Chance (I think I got the zeros right)

It's just a little weird when it happens and I was just curious if any body else ever heard of it happening.

 

[shadroch]

I have a great system to raise the chances that my next card will be an Ace. All I have to do is double down on a two card eleven.
Sadly, I've yet to figure out how to put this to my advantage.

 

[callipygian]

I usually just stick to the strategy. But sometimes it's hard to resist and I do it for the sake of the experiment, if it's not a play that'll get me backed off! (Like doubling an 8-6 against a D-6 because I think know the next one is a 7.) I don't claim to know every card.. just these seemingly random opportunities that pop up.

How is this different from playing a hunch?

 

[daddybo]

doubling for an Ace

LOL Shad... I know that one too. Actually on the streak, I had an 8-3. didn't double. drew the Ace... then the 9..that's when the dealer started yelling that I was cheating!

Calli.... I'm not sure it's different than a hunch. It's just correct most of the time. A lot of time it happens when I call another players card... I usually don't even mention the 10 values.. mainly because, like you said, it's almost 1/3 chance anyway.

 

[KOLAN]

This probably should be in the voodoo forum. I'm an AP player and have been for many years. Over time I have discovered something that I can't pin down mathematically. Here goes... don't laugh too hard. Often when I'm playing I know what the next card is before it's dealt. As far as I can tell it comes from seeing a pattern in the previously dealt cards. I can't make it happen at will but when it happens, I know it. And often it happens at least once or twice an outing. Occasionally though, not for many sessions. I know it sounds like BS, but I've done it with my kids many times. Any body else ever had that kind of thing happen? Some of it I can attribute to probability... i.e a 6-5 against Dealer A.. take Insurance because I know the 10 is next (I double down of course) even though its against the index. the ones that have me puzzled are the 5,6,7,As and 8s that I see. -- Any way calculating my action and winnings it works out to 3.75 % over the long haul. The only reason I'm being stupid enough write this is because I just won 27 hands in a row for a total of 28 out of 30 hands. (My game was abruptly ended at that point). Just wanted to throw it out there... its been troubling me for some time. - daddybo

P.S. yes i've done the factorials and permutations. It's not logically possible.

for you best strategy is in a book blackjack revolution from Frank scoblite
and beting strategy
1 win bet 2 lost bet 1
2win bet3 lost bet1
3win bet4 lost bet1
if you win again 27 times yours profit .you can count isy )))))))))))

 

[daddybo]

You may be on to something

Having perfect knowledge of the next card is very different from winning consistently or knowing when you're going to win.

Calli... Actually you may be on to something. It may be more knowing or having a hunch when winning is going to occur and by virtue of the fact I know what cards I need I "quess" the next card correctly. Like I said before it seems to be associated with certain patterns the cards create. I really think is some form of subconscious math. (not much of a believer in the psychic thing or luck either for that matter)

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I know what the OP refers to, and I have played the same way. The brain is capable of more than you can imagine. Often Ive seen patterns reassert themselves in later shoes.

Don't be so quick to write this off as voodoo, although in my experience it's practical applications are limited. I think it's one of those things you can never learn, you either have it or you don't.

 

[moo321]

prove it

Im skeptical for mathematical reasons, but 28 out of 30 is (slightly) statistically significant, and you seem to understand probability.

EVERY time you feel one of these streaks coming on, immediately begin to track your results, and stop tracking when you feel the streak ending. In order to prove your theory, you MUST clearly define the streaks, beginning and ending.

 

[jack.jackson]

This probably should be in the voodoo forum. I'm an AP player and have been for many years. Over time I have discovered something that I can't pin down mathematically. Here goes... don't laugh too hard. Often when I'm playing I know what the next card is before it's dealt. As far as I can tell it comes from seeing a pattern in the previously dealt cards. I can't make it happen at will but when it happens, I know it. And often it happens at least once or twice an outing. Occasionally though, not for many sessions. I know it sounds like BS, but I've done it with my kids many times. Any body else ever had that kind of thing happen? Some of it I can attribute to probability... i.e a 6-5 against Dealer A.. take Insurance because I know the 10 is next (I double down of course) even though its against the index. the ones that have me puzzled are the 5,6,7,As and 8s that I see. -- Any way calculating my action and winnings it works out to 3.75 % over the long haul. The only reason I'm being stupid enough write this is because I just won 27 hands in a row for a total of 28 out of 30 hands. (My game was abruptly ended at that point). Just wanted to throw it out there... its been troubling me for some time. - daddybo

P.S. yes i've done the factorials and permutations. It's not logically possible.

27 hands in a row:yikes::yikes::yikes:? Whats the odds of that?

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I know you guys are a skeptical lot. But I, for one, believe him. Some people have unlocked uncanny abilities in their brains.

I believe that very few people in the world can EVER be as good a player as he can be. Although winning that many hands in a row seems unlikely, even with information about dealer hole cards and next hit cards. Sometimes you're just damned to lose anyway, which means that a good part of this win MUST be attributed to variance.

I believe there are ways to beat this game that cannot be mathematically defined.

 

[Katweezel]

Ways to beat the game

I know you guys are a skeptical lot. But I, for one, believe him. Some people have unlocked uncanny abilities in their brains.

I believe that very few people in the world can EVER be as good a player as he can be. Although winning that many hands in a row seems unlikely, even with information about dealer hole cards and next hit cards. Sometimes you're just damned to lose anyway, which means that a good part of this win MUST be attributed to variance.

I believe there are ways to beat this game that cannot be mathematically defined.

Your final sentence suggests you may know some, Blue. If you wanna share, I am all ears. :cat:

 

[daddybo]

am skeptical too

Im skeptical for mathematical reasons, but 28 out of 30 is (slightly) statistically significant, and you seem to understand probability.

EVERY time you feel one of these streaks coming on, immediately begin to track your results, and stop tracking when you feel the streak ending. In order to prove your theory, you MUST clearly define the streaks, beginning and ending.

Moo, I'm also skeptical for the same reason. I posted this to see if any one could possibly think of a mathematical reason. It's hard to quantify because it's not usually long streaks, just random opportunities. sometimes several hands in a row... sometimes only one here and there. I suspect it has something to do with seeing previous cards and then seeing a repeated pattern in later hands. (even after a shuffle). Kinda of like subconscious shuffle tracking, but not necessarily on the big cards.

 

[sabre]

i know what the op refers to, and i have played the same way. The brain is capable of more than you can imagine. Often ive seen patterns reassert themselves in later shoes.

Don't be so quick to write this off as voodoo, although in my experience it's practical applications are non existant. I think it's one of those things you can never learn, you either have it or you don't.

fyp

 

[daddybo]

I know what the OP refers to, and I have played the same way. The brain is capable of more than you can imagine. Often Ive seen patterns reassert themselves in later shoes.

Don't be so quick to write this off as voodoo, although in my experience it's practical applications are limited. I think it's one of those things you can never learn, you either have it or you don't.

Blue, Every word in your post rings true! I too have seen the patterns repeat in later shoes, and I believe you are correct about the limited practical applications. In most situations you are constrained from acting because of the ugliness of the play, fear of the eye or the fact that it's going against all the probablities.

 

[johndoe]

Voodoo

This stuff is classic confirmation bias, and is very dangerous to your bankroll. These abilities do not exist, but humans do have a strong tendency to give coincidents (and their memory) far more weight than they should.

If you really have ESP-like powers, you'll easily be able to prove it in front of Randi, and get is $1M prize. How's that for +EV?

http://web.randi.org/the-million-dollar-challenge.html

 

[EasyRhino]

I have never, ever, ever, experienced anything similar to such sporadic temporary clairvoyance. The only time I know the next card is if I see it, which is all too rare for my liking.

Plus, the sporadic clairvoyance is unrelated to a really long winning streak.

 

[sabre]

blue, every word in your post rings true! I too have seen the patterns repeat in later shoes, and i believe you are correct about the limited practical applications. In most situations you are constrained from acting because of your subconcious, which realizes that you don't in fact hate money

fyp