Do any of you guys KNOW the cards?

[callipygian]

Some people have unlocked uncanny abilities in their brains ... I believe there are ways to beat this game that cannot be mathematically defined.

Let's start off with some groundwork: YES, it's very possible that the brain is capable of some amazing things. But NO, this doesn't validate any sort of psychic abilities.

Take poker, for instance. Many players have an uncanny ability to see bluffs; this is neither psychic or paranormal, it's a collection of minute signals that the other player is giving off and being picked up subconsciously. It may be his pupils dilating when he's bluffing; it may be the speed at which he threw his chips in the pot. These things add up to a "general impression" which is that this man is bluffing - although no specific evidence can be recalled.

Specific evidence, however, CAN Be mathematically defined. Hook up a video camera to measure the diameters of his pupils; clock his bet speed over 10,000 hands; put a camera underneath his cards so that every move can be verified; heck, wire him up to measure his heart rate! Just because these things happen on a subconscious level doesn't mean they can NEVER be defined.

Back to blackjack - what signals could one subconsciously pick up? Well, for starters, if the dealer peeks for blackjack, he could betray the card underneath (a tactic that was used quite successfully before the automated BJ checkers were popular). Cards develop nicks and scratches and they're not 100% uniform to begin with; you might be picking up signals from an unintentionally marked deck. Shuffles aren't perfect and your brain might have been subconsciously shuffle tracking. All of these things are awesome (as in awe-creating), but they're not beyond mathematical reasoning.

This is often the reason why people who honestly think they're psychic overwhelmingly flunk appropriately blinded scientific studies - it's not that they are delusional (which is often the conclusions of scientists), but that they're subconsciously picking up tells and signals that manifest themselves not as observations but as general feelings.

 

[daddybo]

This stuff is classic confirmation bias, and is very dangerous to your bankroll. These abilities do not exist, but humans do have a strong tendency to give coincidents (and their memory) far more weight than they should.

If you really have ESP-like powers, you'll easily be able to prove it in front of Randi, and get is $1M prize. How's that for +EV?

http://web.randi.org/the-million-dollar-challenge.html

i wouldn't be surprised if you were right. I've thought about that too. I also agree it could be very dangerous to the bank roll if your wrong. I didn't say I used it to do stupid things... I almost always play by the numbers. I was just curious if anyone had ever experienced anything akin to it and might could figure a mathematical reason for it... ( I have never claimed to have "special powers" - see previous posts)

 

[daddybo]

Let's start off with some groundwork: YES, it's very possible that the brain is capable of some amazing things. But NO, this doesn't validate any sort of psychic abilities.

Back to blackjack - what signals could one subconsciously pick up? Well, for starters, if the dealer peeks for blackjack, he could betray the card underneath (a tactic that was used quite successfully before the automated BJ checkers were popular). Cards develop nicks and scratches and they're not 100% uniform to begin with; you might be picking up signals from an unintentionally marked deck. Shuffles aren't perfect and your brain might have been subconsciously shuffle tracking. All of these things are awesome (as in awe-creating), but they're not beyond mathematical reasoning.

This is often the reason why people who honestly think they're psychic overwhelmingly flunk appropriately blinded scientific studies - it's not that they are delusional (which is often the conclusions of scientists), but that they're subconsciously picking up tells and signals that manifest themselves not as observations but as general feelings.

Calli.. that's more the direction I'm leaning... That's it's more of a subconscious thing. maybe it is some kind of tell. If you can nail down what "it" is, then you might have a great weapon to ad to the arsenal. I have no delusions about the numbers and guarantee you I'm not psychic amazing or even particularly smart.

 

[daddybo]

I have never, ever, ever, experienced anything similar to such sporadic temporary clairvoyance. The only time I know the next card is if I see it, which is all too rare for my liking.

Plus, the sporadic clairvoyance is unrelated to a really long winning streak.

Yeah, I know it's unrelated to the streak I mentioned.. I only mentioned it because the rarity of a streak like that made me think of other things improbable.

The streak was just old fashion good cards mixed with good ole' advantage play and very long odds. No doubt about that.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

fyp

Umm, no.

 

[daddybo]

I'm gonna find out..

I guess the only way I can figure out how to prove/disprove anything is to sit down with recorded play and actually mark when when I think I know a card, keep up with it and if I am correct a significant portion of the time, then play it back and look at all the cards and other environmental factors to find out why.

If I'm not correct a significant portion of the time... then it could be confirmation bias or just plain BS

 

[Kasi]

I guess the only way I can figure out how to prove/disprove anything is to sit down with recorded play and actually mark when when I think I know a card, keep up with it and if I am correct a significant portion of the time, then play it back and look at all the cards and other environmental factors to find out why.

If I'm not correct a significant portion of the time... then it could be confirmation bias or just plain BS

Hi daddy.

Hey, on your win streak, I was just impressed you actually knew the exact number of hands you played.

Do you always keep an exact count of hands played and, if so, how?

And is a WWWTWWW a win streak of 6 in a row?

27 wins a row - heck I've never even had 4 BJ's in a row lol. Let alone those occasional 1 in 7 billion things lol. (Is that what your number is?)

But, sure, on your psychic stuff, like you say above, nothing beats recording stuff and figure it out later lol.

I'm pretty good at knowing after my first card is a 10, the next card I get will be a 6. Seems to work quite often lmao.

 

[nottooshabby]

Kasi,

I know what you're talking about. I have found that in playing a lot of single deck and keeping a few side counts, I've been pretty surprised at the accuracy with which I can predict cards.

The scenario that comes up often is when I've got a 10,9 and the dealer shows a 6. About a third of the time the hole card is a 10, of which the results are highly reproducible. My side count tells me "Hey, only one 4 (or 5) has come out, and we're almost halfway through the deck. I'm sure the next card will be a 4 (or 5)."

Yep, nailed it. :laugh:

/no moral victories for this