Do I have an edge of the top?

[k_c]

Honestly i think the best way to figure this out is to sim it. For some games and some rules it will be much more valuable, like if LS is offered. it will probably make a very small difference depending on how many people are seated, and for sure the number of decks will matter. then the number of indicies used, and the count. I think i read hi/lo + I18 + Fab4. oh yeah the all important pen will also have a huge effect. if pen is 50% you'll never be using index plays to the point where they'll make a difference. negative index plays like 13v2 12v6 etc are in the clear minority, the vast majority of index plays are employed in + counts, so you have to make sure you see those + counts...

From what I recall, i think a house edge of around .15 is what you're looking to trim off, though LS changes things quite a bit. and i can't back this up with any 'official' citation, though in my defense no one else here has been able to offer a more accurate number....

All points I agree with. Theoretically any count should improve a flat betting index player's EV as compared to a flat betting basic strategist to at least some degree. As I recall Thorp in Beat the Dealer seemed to suggest that a flat betting Hi-Lo index player could have a pretty decent advantage for a single deck. Of course that was for the old favorable Vegas Strip single deck rules.

I would also add that I think that a valid index play would require a sufficient number of cards remaining in the shoe. Just how many I don't know.

k_c

 

[Cardcounter]

Two hand difference?

How does playing two hands make a difference?

I said that you would take insurance and if you have 2 hands with zero tens in them taking insurance yields an advantage of a little over 2% in a single deck game for the insurance wager. You would be playing a game with a stragedy of basic stragedy or better. Taking insurance is never a basic stragedy move with one hand but if you had 2 hands taking insurance when there where no tens in either of your hands you an edge.

 

[Kasi]

My guess is PE, divided by # of decks In play. For example, a system with a PE of .60 adds .1 for a 6D game.

I just meant that while a system might have an overall average PE of 0.6 each play within that system has its own PE attached to it. Like for Hi=Lo the PE of 14 vs 10 is way less than other plays since 7 is counted as 0. And the PE of 15 vs 10 is different than the PE of 16 vs 10 etc. But I think that's at least one variable one needs to know in analyzing any gain from indices compared to a BS player.

Applying the average PE of 0.6 to every hand would be incorrect in theory. I think. lol.

 

[Kasi]

I said that you would take insurance and if you have 2 hands with zero tens in them taking insurance yields an advantage of a little over 2% in a single deck game for the insurance wager.

Well, not if the reason that you got 2 hands with no 10's in them was because there were no 10's left in the deck lol.

It strictly depends on the ratio of 10's to non-10's left in the deck. If that ratio exceeds 0.5, bet it.

And the TC at which it becomes profitable is alot less for 1 deck than 8.

No idea where your assumed +2% adv comes from.

 

[miplet]

Well, not if the reason that you got 2 hands with no 10's in them was because there were no 10's left in the deck lol.

It strictly depends on the ratio of 10's to non-10's left in the deck. If that ratio exceeds 0.5, bet it.

And the TC at which it becomes profitable is alot less for 1 deck than 8.

No idea where your assumed +2% adv comes from.

The 2% advantage is off the top single deck insurance wager when playing two hands with no tens or face cards. (16/47)*2 -(31/47) = 1/47 or about 2.1276596%

 

[aslan]

Gee, are we talking about Fitzgerald's under the new mgmt, perhaps? The DOA, LS rules yield a .10% HA, so if you restrict your index plays (I don't see why) to insurance only, I would suppose you would have turned the HA negative, even though slightly, by playing perfect BS and flat betting.

What's changed about Fitzgerald's? I was there a month ago and they still had 6 to 5 on BJ, SD, and no double down after splitting on DD.

 

[bj bob]

What's changed about Fitzgerald's? I was there a month ago and they still had 6 to 5 on BJ, SD, and no double down after splitting on DD.

We're talking about the one on Virginia Street (Reno), Sir.

 

[aslan]

We're talking about the one on Virginia Street (Reno), Sir.

Ah! I'm talking about the one on Fremont, Downtown, Las Vegas, sir.

 

[Kasi]

The 2% advantage is off the top single deck insurance wager when playing two hands with no tens or face cards. (16/47)*2 -(31/47) = 1/47 or about 2.1276596%

I see what you mean and in that case since the ratio of 10's to remaining cards exceeds 0.5 it is profitable.

Not sure but I'm thinking since the advantage is only applied to a half-bet/unit, your edge would be half your number.

 

[EasyRhino]

Ah! I'm talking about the one on Fremont, Downtown, Las Vegas, sir.

We don't talk about that one.