Do you get frustrated looking for decent games?

[sagefr0g]

In my mind, I don't mean an average. I mean a specific sim for specific games with specific rules for specific penetrations for defined bet ramps at what counts and what spread for various number of players at the table with a near identical ROR one is comfortable with for a bankroll you are willing to risk losing. For starters lol.
Then if you want to get an idea of how things change under certain circumstances that's great.

well yeah thats the idea i meant but then take an average of all that. i mean if you simmed every variation of all the crazy ways things could be well you'd have a mind boggling amount of actions you'd need to match to all that.
then too my way of understanding some of what might happen would be so rare that if the variance of it went bad for you there might not even be another chance to give it another shot for who knows when.
example: i once had an opportunity to make some scavenger plays when a guy was betting black chips on a nickle table but he would run out of chips and handy cash when he got an opportunity to double down. one time (because i sort of knew the guy) i lent him a hundred so he could make the double. he won that one. then he gets himself in the same situation again but this time asks me if i want to make the double and recieve the proceeds. so i go for it and of course lose. but here i am betting a hundred on this one situation and guess what? never have had another such chance since to have a chance to overcome the variance. so i guess it was a good bet but in my case the variance killed me. it was basicaly an overbet for me. funny thing was though to tell the truth i was so darned excited about scavaging the double down that i don't think i even knew what the count was
but anyway i just think this sort of scenerio might trap one into overbetting should some sort of weird high penetration rarity present.

You're dream, fuzzy as it may be, still could come true. Can sims make a bet based on running count of one round only?

no way to sim where you make a bet based on running count of one round only that i know of unless you sim it with sage software set for a csm but it's not really possible to sim a csm exactly with sage software lol .... you can just approximate it.
but i've been thinking about ways to simulate fuzzy counting to (of course) some degree.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=61939&postcount=29

 

[Kasi]

well yeah thats the idea i meant but then take an average of all that. i mean if you simmed every variation of all the crazy ways things could be well you'd have a mind boggling amount of actions you'd need to match to all that.

I guess I did sound pretty scary lol.

But really I'm just thinking of a guy who maybe goes to AC. He knows what the rules are and the number of decks he will likely be playing.

I'm just saying get an idea of spreading various ways 1-8 or 1-10 etc at various penetrations, say half-decks, so maybe you have an idea of when to change your unit size. Like maybe at 1-8 you could bet $15 to $120 but if you go 1-16 it might be $5-$80. Maybe sometimes you back-count it. Maybe, if u can, table limits are different. Figure out what to bet spreading however say 1-4. Maybe what will change if you enter at +2 instead of +1. Or you decide maybe you only want to go 1-3. Maybe you're suddenly back-counting a great 1 deck cutoff shoe so maybe that 1-4 spread will suddenly be $100 to $400 even though 10 minutes ago at another table it was $5-$80. Or maybe it will be a different dollar amount than thatt when in the next shoe 2 less decks were cutoff.

It's all the same game but at least this way you might have a better idea of what to change when and still keep about the same ROR you like. I just don't see the point of playing most hands at one ROR and when things get better it drops to 1% because you're not betting enough. So what if you have 30% more dollars of variance but your win rate just went up 700%.

But you're right you could go as deep as you want with what if it's a full table, trip rolls, cover betting, variance etc. But the important results likely only take up one line so not that hard to make up a summary cheat sheet maybe lol. Do it once question answered forever.

But, in case you're wondering, I don't actually wear a belt and suspenders

 

[Kasi]

My win rate in this particular game is 2.83 units/hundred hands, thus my cash win expectation is a pleasant $93.39 per hundred, or $373.56 per week.

Lots of food for thought in what you say.

Just to help me think straight, or sraighter, or maybe less crookedly would be more apt, what game are you talking about?

I guess you bring session bankrolls of varying amounts from week to week, maybe, based on some totall bankroll in the background that floats around as time goes by in that you can add or subtract to it as necessary.

And, if you want to play a seesion roll aggressively, or not, I guess why not.

It sounds like a back-counting game given the unit win rate, so I assume when you said play 400 hands you basically mean playing for 4 hours rather than 400 physical hands?