Does Method Increase Heat?

[aslan]

Here's a question for the experts.

I was just reading a thread about higher heat than expected, which
reminded me of a question that's been in the back of my mind. In that thread the AP experiencing heat was using the Hi-lo counting system. Since I know that many large casinos in Vegas use Hi-lo to surveil their games, I've always wondered if that counting system might attract more heat than other systems. I'm no expert, but I imagine that other, more precise systems lead to different decision points at which to step up or step down the betting. In such cases, the "eye" employing the Hi-lo count will see the general trend, but the exact points will be blurred. However, when an "eye" using Hi-lo monitors a game in which the counter is also using Hi-lo, he will see bet changes at the exact same time that his count indicates. He will quickly conclude without hesitation the player is counting in such a case, whereas when bet changes are fuzzy due to different, more precise systems, he may hesitate to draw the same conclusion. Instead, he may want to monitor more, in which case, the counter may be in and out before the heat gets turned up.

 

[rukus]

Here's a question for the experts.

I was just reading a thread about higher heat than expected, which
reminded me of a question that's been in the back of my mind. In that thread the AP experiencing heat was using the Hi-lo counting system. Since I know that many large casinos in Vegas use Hi-lo to surveil their games, I've always wondered if that counting system might attract more heat than other systems. I'm no expert, but I imagine that other, more precise systems lead to different decision points at which to step up or step down the betting. In such cases, the "eye" employing the Hi-lo count will see the general trend, but the exact points will be blurred. However, when an "eye" using Hi-lo monitors a game in which the counter is also using Hi-lo, he will see bet changes at the exact same time that his count indicates. He will quickly conclude without hesitation the player is counting in such a case, whereas when bet changes are fuzzy due to different, more precise systems, he may hesitate to draw the same conclusion. Instead, he may want to monitor more, in which case, the counter may be in and out before the heat gets turned up.

it doesnt matter what system you use, as long as you correlate your bet increases to increases in any system's count, they can spot this and will act on it.

its not like a PB or someone in the eye is sitting there saying, "hmm, HiLo TC is +5, this guy should have 5 units out, but he only has 4 out [my note - because maybe he is using Zen or some other system], so he must not be counting". they realize that off the top you bet one or two units and now that they recognize that the count is higher, you have 4 units out. without a very good act, this will not fly.

thats why some people (who hopefully have the BR to support the added variance) will bet somewhere between their min bet and max bet off the top, if not their TOP bet, to uncorrelate their bets from the count. additionally, it has been recommended (maybe by snyder, or some other author, i forget) that you can stop following a bet schedule in the nuetral counts, ie maybe increase bets as count drops a bit, then decrease bets as count rises a bit, such that youre average bets at each of the lower counts come out to what you wanted per your bet schedule. this will help uncorrelate your bet increases to count increases. but to be honest, when the count is high, you NEED to get your big bet out, and if you draw attention to yourself, this will be discovered eventually...

[as a partially related side note, i notice some people here are looking for static, fixed, one-size-fits-all playing or betting rules that they can follow that optimize this or that or the other thing. yes, it works in a sim and is implementable at low levels of play. but start green-chipping and that wont go far when your max bets are in the hundreds, especially on the heat front in some places. why learn bad habits even if playing at low levels where heat might be non-existant? learn to feel out a pit crew and adjust your betting based on their reactions, not on what kelly says you should do in a white paper. id prefer to get taken out of a game due to some bad variance due to slightly non-optimized betting rather than getting knocked out due to a back off. i can always rebuild a BR, but not a reputation at a given casino. ideally i have a big enough BR to support this slightly non-optimal betting anyway. if you are serious about the game, you need a big BR anyway. and what good is a big BR if you cant deploy it due to heat or back offs? just my personal opinion..]

 

[runningaces]

My action has all been $25 minimum tables as I stated in my own thread. I did alot of $100.00 bets right out of the gate after a shuffle to throw them off upstairs. You just have to hope you get lucky and win or push or in my case one pays the other ( 2 hands). If I suspected a little heat I would do a 2-3 unit bet with a minus 2-4 count every now and then just to throw them off in case they were watching. And as mentioned by Rukus, you have to have the BR to do this, in my case I do so I don't sweat a 100-200 loss to hammer them later for 400-600 in a single hand.

I think the main thing from my short experience with this is to try not to show any consistency to your betting. It's damn hard to do when the counts high and your chompin at the bit to fire away. CHECKS PLAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[rukus]

one thign to remember - off the top of a shoe, you generally are at anywhere from 0.25% to 0.6% disadvantage.

if you play a 6 deck shoe, assume a shoe takes about 10 min, you will need to make about 6 off-the-top bets an hour. even if you make your max bet of say $150 off the top, you only give up about $2.03 to $4.86 an hour in EV (assuming you dont double or split on those hands and that you would have played a minimum $15 bet anyway). maybe that is a lot for you, maybe a little, but the small absolute size of what you give up might encourage you to make some bigger bets off the top. obviously you dont have to bet max off the top (i dont). if you make a half max bet off the top, those numbers would be $1.02 and $2.43 in given up EV/hour.

one thing to note with this strategy though is that you need a good "act" to start cutting back on these big bets if the count drops instead of staying the same or rising.

 

[aslan]

These comments are based on good games with good rules and good pen where one can "play all" and win, with only occasional wong outs required.

I personally like to mix it up when in negative territory. If the count goes down, I may raise my bet one or two units. If it continues to go down, and I am winning, I may raise it another one or two units, on the theory that if I catch a long trend downward, I will continue to be favored due to big cards falling. If the count starts going up, I will lower my bet on the theory that if I happen to catch a long positive trend, I will not be favored due to all the small cards coming out. I know you cannot "predict" trends, but when you catch them, they can be lucrative, and they tend to balance out anyways. It's like playing short positive progressions in negative or neutral territory. They tend to almost balance out, but they do provide nice cover.

Likewise in positive territory, I sometimes ignore my key count and several positive levels up the scale, but when the count reaches TC of +4 or +5 or +6 I come out both guns blazing as if on a wild impulse. If the count continues to rise, or even if it begins to fall, I keep blazing as this is when all the big cards are falling (oppositional betting).

Then at other times I spread according to Hoyle, from my pivot point on up as far as the count takes me. I just like to mix it up. And always I act as if on an impulse or steaming. After a run of conventional spreading I like to start the next shoe with a larger than usual bet and if I win continue to do so, as if I am continuing my "hot" streak from last shoe. Other times I will say out loud, "Let's see how this shoe is running first," and bet appropriately minimum bet, although I realize that the "eye" cannot hear my declaration, only the dealer and possibly the pit. If I think the "eye" is on me, I only play for the benefit of the "eye."

If I am concerned with longevity at a place, after a nice win I might return later and play very conservatively for half an hour or so, with mostly flatbetting and only slight spreads if any. This usually gets me nowhere, but establishes me as a good BS player, but obviously not a counter.

 

[EasyRhino]

Likewise in positive territory, I sometimes ignore my pivot point and several positive levels up the scale, but when the count reaches TC of +4 or +5 or +6 I come out both guns blazing as if on a wild impulse.

Hang on, to clarify, if you're talking about Knockout language, "Key Count" is the point at which you can first justify raising bets at all, and "Pivot Point" is where the count is equivalent to a TC of +4.

And by God, if you're at the pivot point in KO, you had damn well better be throwing down big bets, or you're doing something very wrong.

 

[aslan]

Hang on, to clarify, if you're talking about Knockout language, "Key Count" is the point at which you can first justify raising bets at all, and "Pivot Point" is where the count is equivalent to a TC of +4.

And by God, if you're at the pivot point in KO, you had damn well better be throwing down big bets, or you're doing something very wrong.

Ya. Key count is what I meant. I have edited my original. Good catch.