Equation to predict win rate?

[Dopple]

I know BJ has a standard deviation of 1.1 over the square root of # of hands played and 68% of the time you will be within one SD.

After 100 hrs of play I have been at $50 per total hrs of play once then dropped to $14.50 for a while and now I am at $22/hr. for my 100 hrs of play.

Is there any equation that can tell me what my hourly win rate should level out at?

I know I get closer to that by playing more but just thought there might be some prediction algorhythm or something I could plug numbers into.

 

[callipygian]

just thought there might be some prediction algorhythm or something I could plug numbers into.

The easiest way for someone to tell is for you to post your exact bet spread.

-5 = ?
-4 = ?
-3 = ?
-2 = ?
-1 = ?
0 = ?
1 = ?
2 = ?
3 = ?
4 = ?
5 = ?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not So Hard

average bet * advantage * number of hands played per hour = $ per hour

 

[blackjack avenger]

A Little Harder

If you can't figure your average bet one can:

Take their bet at each TC

TC bet * advantage at that TC * number of hands played per hour at that TC = $hr

Now you would have to do that for each TC including negative TC's you may play.

 

[EasyRhino]

The ghetto rule of thumb is one or two units per 100 hands.

 

[cardcounter0]

Don Schlesinger's "Blackjack Attack, Playing the Pro's Way" (Third Edition now in print) has all kinds of these win equations.

The Chapter 10 charts break down all kinds of games (and at different penetrations) with this info plus frequency that counts are seen, standard deviation, optimal bet sizes, optimal win rates, and win rates using various spreads.

I think "BLACKJACK ATTACK BY DON SCHLESINGER" could be the answer to about 80% of the questions on Blackjack.

 

[Kasi]

I know BJ has a standard deviation of 1.1 over the square root of # of hands played and 68% of the time you will be within one SD.

That 1.1 SD (units per hand) you're talking about assumes flat-betting 1 unit per hand. A card counting system will likely have more than that since your avg unit bet per hand will likely be more than that.

Basically, I think, you need a sim to tell you the freq, adv and SD (or variance) at each TC. After you specify game, rules, pen, counting system etc. Then you can bet whatever you want at whatever count and see what changes since the basics of freq, adv, and SD have been specified. That will never change for the game, rules, pen, system etc that you already specified whether you choose to wong in and out, back-count, play-all or whatever.

But, yes, it's all computable with a little multiplication and addition. Sometimes, you may have to divide too. Square roots is as bad as it gets.

Not trying to be cute - just trying to say it's not that hard. Trust me, if I can get close, anybody can.

It's like the carpenter who charged $200 for coming out and swinging the hammer once on a nail. It's not that you can't swing the hammer and hammer a nail in, it's just knowing which nail to hit lol.

You'll never know which nail to hit without a sim to tell you.

 

[Kasi]

average bet * advantage * number of hands played per hour = $ per hour

average bet (per hand) * avg advantage (per hand) * number of hands played per hour = $ per hour.

 

[Kasi]

If you can't figure your average bet one can:

Take their bet at each TC

TC bet * advantage at that TC * number of hands played per hour at that TC = $hr

Now you would have to do that for each TC including negative TC's you may play.

And then you'd still have to sum the products at each TC and divide by total hands played? Maybe? It's late lol.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Yep

average bet (per hand) * avg advantage (per hand) * number of hands played per hour = $ per hour.

Yep, that's what I said:joker:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Yeppers

And then you'd still have to sum the products at each TC and divide by total hands played? Maybe? It's late lol.

Unh Huh, said that to

Yeah, forgot that part:joker::whip:

Shouldn't you be doing something fuzzy or something:joker: