Exit Strategy

[E-town-guy]

But my question was so basic that I think it might have slipped by you guys. With a 1:10 spread, I start raising my bet when I reach -4 with KO. At -3, I bet 3-units and at -2 4-units and so on until I reach +4 (Pivot) with my max bet of 10-units. Perfect fit.

However, If I switch to 1:8 spread or 1:20 spread, at what points do I raise bets and how much to reach my max bet at a +4 count? Or do you keep raising past +4? Or do you start raising prior to -4 counts? Reducing the spread is pretty easy I guess for 1:8....raise at -4 and stay at 2-units through -3 and -2 and then raise again at -1??

The only way I could see immediately to increase the spread to 1:20 would be to play two 1:10 spread hands.

I hope I won't get 86'ed for my response if I missed the point of the question!

If you want to switch to a 1:20 spread you can do a number of things:
-Keep your minimum bet the same but at each count where you raise your bet double that bet.
-Instead of doubling your bet you can instead play two hands at some of the higher counts.
-If you don't want to double your max bet halve your min bet.

 

[zengrifter]

If you don't want to double your max bet halve your min bet.

Reducing your min bet is always the correct way to increase the spread. zg

 

[ScottH]

Reducing your min bet is always the correct way to increase the spread. zg

Think of it this way E-town. Your max bet is a function of your bankroll, and your minimum bet is a function of your desired spread(and max bet).

 

[Automatic Monkey]

"AM" That pretty much nails the situation I'll be playing in. I suspected that rather than "play-all" that "exit strategy" or "Exit Wonging" would impact the KO recommended 1:10 spread though not as much as "Entry Wonging"...

Well this is one of the reasons I've gotten away from unbalanced counts in shoe games. Being Wonging is such an important and imperative part of the game in shoe, you end up having to do deck estimation anyway so it defeats the purpose of the unbalanced count. The bigger the spread the more profitable, but my bankroll only allows a 1X$200 max bet, and it's often hard to find an open table under $25. But you can almost always find a $25 table, hence the 1-8 system I've worked out. It's good for 0.3 MB/100 (max bets per 100 hands.) Going to a lower table or backcounting only takes me up to 0.33-0.35 MB/100, with fewer hands per hour due to the crowds so it's all the same.

Backcounting (entry Wonging) is a powerful technique and you can beat nearly any game with it. One of the reasons I don't use it very often is that in the place where I play the most, player's card comps add an extra 25% to my win rate, and it's difficult to get rated when you are just jumping in for a few hands. Backcounting would not make up for that extra 25% over exit Wonging. But in places like AC where you have to go at them very aggressively, I backcount. Backcounting is also a lot more conspicuous, especially if you play alone.

 

[Mikeaber]

Not satisfied that I've given it a fair shake!

"AM", I tried the Exit Wonging last night and this morning. I can certainly see that it *should have* made a difference. I played the marginal hands as long as the count was greater than the exit points identified in KO. When they dropped below, I just stepped back from the table or "took a phone call". Once, the count got so bad (-37 with one deck played!) that I just told the dealer I was sitting the shoe out. But I was religious in coming in when the count reached the Key Count (-4) with the appropriate bets. The trouble was, I got my butt kicked way more than one would expect! Whaddaya do when the count is +8? You dump your max out...and get a 6/5 against a dealer 5 and consider yourself blessed. Blessed until you draw a 5, the dealer turns a 7 and draws another 7! The final hand I played was another high count (+7) so I shoved in my max 10-unit bet. I get a 10/4 and the dealer shows an Ace. I take insurance and lose it. I hit the 14 and bust and the dealer draws to 18. It was like that all night. I ended up down just a little over 100 units.

Oh well, with each cloud, some rain must fall and it changed to hail last night! However, except for the improbable variance last night, I would have done extremely well had not I lost so many of the hands that I had the advantage in.

I was playing at AmeriStar in KC on their 6-deck tables. They usually cut off no more than one deck. On their Double Deck, they cut around 25% of the deck...really good conditions! We stopped by Isle of Capri on the way out of KC this afternoon and I got into one shoe only. I sat down just before the first hand was dealt. It shocked me when they reshuffled with only 3.5 to 4 decks played! I got out of that crap. They also had Double Deck ($25 min) but it was even worse....they deal out only 40% of the two deck shoe!

 

[ScottH]

They also had Double Deck ($25 min) but it was even worse....they deal out only 40% of the two deck shoe!

I think it was zengrifter who said something like, if they're only going to deal half the pack they should advertise it as a single deck game!

 

[Automatic Monkey]

"AM", I tried the Exit Wonging last night and this morning. I can certainly see that it *should have* made a difference. I played the marginal hands as long as the count was greater than the exit points identified in KO. When they dropped below, I just stepped back from the table or "took a phone call". Once, the count got so bad (-37 with one deck played!) that I just told the dealer I was sitting the shoe out. But I was religious in coming in when the count reached the Key Count (-4) with the appropriate bets. The trouble was, I got my butt kicked way more than one would expect! Whaddaya do when the count is +8? You dump your max out...and get a 6/5 against a dealer 5 and consider yourself blessed. Blessed until you draw a 5, the dealer turns a 7 and draws another 7! The final hand I played was another high count (+7) so I shoved in my max 10-unit bet. I get a 10/4 and the dealer shows an Ace. I take insurance and lose it. I hit the 14 and bust and the dealer draws to 18. It was like that all night. I ended up down just a little over 100 units.

Oh well, with each cloud, some rain must fall and it changed to hail last night! However, except for the improbable variance last night, I would have done extremely well had not I lost so many of the hands that I had the advantage in...!

Oh yes, I forgot about that part! Wonging means you get significantly more money on the table, simply because you are seeing more good counts, and you can get good counts shoved up your ass all night. Probably the worst backcounting experience I ever had was at an 8D shoe with good rules. The count went high after two decks and kept getting higher. I played til the end of the shoe and lost almost every hand. Down 100 units in less than one shoe. What a mess. But that's blackjack, and I'd rather do that than sit and bleed to death playing low counts and never get a chance to raise my bet and get my money back. Using the exit Wong you should be walking away from a shoe as often as you raise your bet.

 

[ScottH]

Oh yes, I forgot about that part! Wonging means you get significantly more money on the table, simply because you are seeing more good counts, and you can get good counts shoved up your ass all night. Probably the worst backcounting experience I ever had was at an 8D shoe with good rules. The count went high after two decks and kept getting higher. I played til the end of the shoe and lost almost every hand. Down 100 units in less than one shoe. What a mess. But that's blackjack, and I'd rather do that than sit and bleed to death playing low counts and never get a chance to raise my bet and get my money back. Using the exit Wong you should be walking away from a shoe as often as you raise your bet.

Is there more variance wonging in since you have a higher average bet? That would explain the large swings.

 

[zengrifter]

Its a paradox

Is there more variance wonging in since you have a higher average bet? That would explain the large swings.

Anything that increases +count/big-bet frequency has higher short term variance. Thus we have our biggest session losses in the games that are the most profitable. zg

 

[Mikeaber]

Anything that increases +count/big-bet frequency has higher short term variance. Thus we have our biggest session losses in the games that are the most profitable. zg

Seemed that way to me Zen. Those hands that tanked me were lousey. But those around me were landing great hands.....just that the dealer was pulling them too. This is the first Exit strategy session I've played in but it is not the first high count loss that this has happened to me and about all you can do is keep pushing it out there. It's no big deal. It hurt my "record" a lot more than it hurt my BR.

 

[E-town-guy]

Think of it this way E-town. Your max bet is a function of your bankroll, and your minimum bet is a function of your desired spread(and max bet).

He could also have wanted to increase his RoR or have increased his BR which would justify the other two responses.

 

[Mikeaber]

I couldn't find where I initially posted about an Indian Casino at which I was short shuffled. I was concerned about them ID'ing me there. Well, this past Saturday, we did go back. We arrived too early in the morning to hit the double deck table where I was getting the heat before, so I chose instead the only table open in the casino at the time.

It was a 6-deck shoe, cut to 75%, H17 and standard rules otherwise. I used a 1:20 spread going heads up with the dealer. It's hard to do any Wonging when you are the only player! I played through the shoe and was down around 10 units and told the dealer I was just going to loaf around and wait for some other players to "discover" the table. Had a good talk with the attractive young lady dealing. She is the type who wants players to think she is a genius at the game and told me that they were paranoid about the double deck game, but that regardless of all the books on blackjack, you simply cannot count a 6-deck shoe without "external devices." There are simply too many cards to keep track of. I agreed completely with her. I never did get from her a description of the "external device". But, I found out (truth or not, I do not know) that the reason they require nothing but English to be spoken at the table is that they have a lot of Spanish speaking patrons who were discussing the count between themselves, not thinking the dealers could understand them. She said that the usual tactic they use at the DD table is preferential shuffling...exactly what they were doing to me. So I still may have trouble at that table.

Anyway, after about a half hour of recess, a couple of ladies sat down. I greeted them with "Man, I'm sure glad you ladies decided to play at this table. Playing one-on-one just wasn't working for me!" Well, I found out a bit later that one of the "ladies" was not a "lady" at all! Damn, he sure had hair that looked like a woman's! I think every one but the guy and me got a big laugh out of that!

So, it's back to 1:10 and pulling back on bad counts and coming back in as the deck reached positive conditions. It worked. Within an hour and a half of play on the 6-D game that "can't be counted," I was ahead overall by just under 50 units (48.6 actually). It was enough. I'd been up for over 24 hours and was really tired. 1:10 "can" work if used in combination with the proper Exit Strategy. I never had any extremely large bets on the table...but had a lot of mediocre ones (6 or 7 units is about the max that I had out at any one time)

It is interesting to note that though they have Shuffle Master machines at the tables, they hand shuffle the decks! I ask about that and my expert dealer told me that they had too many players who didn't trust the machines. To pacify them, they have quit using them. I do not know if they plan to remove them or not.

 

[Doc]

I was using a very similar strategy today,

but I didn't have very good results. I was playing a 6 deck game for a while using KO Preferred, spreading 1:10, and sitting out at the exit points suggested in the book (22, 17, 12). I was surprised that I didn't even get a second look as I just sat at the table and didn't bet. Nevertheless, I ended up down 40 units at that table after about an hour and a half. I went and watched my buddy play roulette for a bit, then decided to try my luck at the 2 deck table spreading 1:5. I would sit out the rest of the 2 deck shoe anytime the count went below -4, but I still lost 20 units in about an hour of play. At one time the count was above +20 in the shoe game and about +12 in the 2 deck. I guess I just had a stretch of bad luck. I'm trying to do some self-evaluation to see if I am doing anything wrong, but I can't find anything. My counting seems to be accurate. I can count the deck in 20-25 seconds, and never noticed myself losing the count or making plays against either BS or the play adjusted for the count. I'm assuming this kind of a swing is well within the normal variation.

 

[ScottH]

but I didn't have very good results. I was playing a 6 deck game for a while using KO Preferred, spreading 1:10, and sitting out at the exit points suggested in the book (22, 17, 12). I was surprised that I didn't even get a second look as I just sat at the table and didn't bet. Nevertheless, I ended up down 40 units at that table after about an hour and a half. I went and watched my buddy play roulette for a bit, then decided to try my luck at the 2 deck table spreading 1:5. I would sit out the rest of the 2 deck shoe anytime the count went below -4, but I still lost 20 units in about an hour of play. At one time the count was above +20 in the shoe game and about +12 in the 2 deck. I guess I just had a stretch of bad luck. I'm trying to do some self-evaluation to see if I am doing anything wrong, but I can't find anything. My counting seems to be accurate. I can count the deck in 20-25 seconds, and never noticed myself losing the count or making plays against either BS or the play adjusted for the count. I'm assuming this kind of a swing is well within the normal variation.

The more high counts you see, the better chance of losing a lot of money. Losing 20 units in one hour is nothing. The last time I went to the casino I lost 30 units in the first 5-10 minutes!

 

[Automatic Monkey]

For Mikeaber: Spread for Wonging

Here's a comparative sim I did for a real game that I play, to illustrate the awesome power of Wonging out of bad counts.

These are the parameters: 8D/1.5 pen, S17, DAS, LS. The count is RPC with 31 indices.

Spread:
TC<2- Table min
TC=2- $50
TC=3- $75
TC=4- $100
TC=5- $125
TC=6- $150
TC=7- $175
TC=>8- $200

Pretty simple, it's one green chip per TC (Note this is a level 2 count).

Wong out at -2. The simulator was set to "force shuffle on exit", which is the equivalent of getting up and finding a new shoe starting any time you want- this is close to reality in some large stores.

Results:

Table min= $5.00 (1-40 spread)
Win Rate: $74.04/100 hands, SCORE=68.32, N0=14637

Table min= $10.00 (1-20 spread)
Win Rate: $73.20/100 hands, SCORE=66.30, N0=15082

Table min= $15.00 (1-13.3 spread)
Win Rate: $73.32/100 hands, SCORE=65.78, N0=15202

Table min= $25.00 (1-8 spread)
Win Rate: $69.77/100 hands, SCORE=57.52, N0=17385

Table min= $50.00 (1-4 spread)
Win Rate: $66.80/100 hands, SCORE=45.33, N0=22060


Note that the win rate doesn't change by any extreme amount, and that even with a spread as low as 1-4 you're not playing such a horrible game.

Normally I'm playing at a $25 table. Although it's true the SCORE is starting to roll off there, the crowds at the $10 and $15 tables slow the game down to the point where I'm making less money at them. My spread is also less noticeable at a $25 table.

 

[Mikeaber]

Anything that increases +count/big-bet frequency has higher short term variance. Thus we have our biggest session losses in the games that are the most profitable. zg

Remember that Indian Casino I told you about that "short shuffled" me a couple of months ago? Well, I went back today and played for a couple of hours. Got my butt kicked and had to keep reminding myself of the quote above by ZG. It seemed that on virtually every big bet (i.e. "high count") I got reamed. I had a "double BJ up to $50 bet" coupon and never got a BJ to use it! High Counts abounded too! I wasn't out of money when I left, but I had to leave to drive back. Sure would have liked to have stuck around and recovered. Excellent game with only two others at the table and we were getting consistent 75% pen. I just wasn't getting the cards.