First 100 hours

[JohnCrover]

The bell curve levels out at about 1,000 hours. At 500 hours, if you take a group of 10 ppl, they will be all over the place. At 1,000 hours is where they all get very close in results, everything starts leveling out.

I'm going to just go ahead and assume you got that information from the BJA 1,000 hour graph of several different pros they hand-picked to put in it, right?
When looking at CVCX, that's not actually the case, 1,000 isn't a magic number. Someone can be losing after that amount of time has elapsed be performing at something around -2SD
And I would also like to add that the bell curve never "levels out." There's always going to be people on opposite ends of it, and the difference between the tail ends is huge.

 

[JohnCrover]

As you lose money, are you changing your betting spreads to keep yourself at 5% RoR? If not, you should be.

Adjusting as much as possible. Not keeping it at 5% now. I need to make money. It's at 10% now. I have adjusted it several times in the past.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

I'm going to just go ahead and assume you got that information from the BJA 1,000 hour graph of several different pros they hand-picked to put in it, right?
When looking at CVCX, that's not actually the case, 1,000 isn't a magic number. Someone can be losing after that amount of time has elapsed be performing at something around -2SD
And I would also like to add that the bell curve never "levels out." There's always going to be people on opposite ends of it, and the difference between the tail ends is huge.

I actually heard it straight from Anthony Curtis in this interview...

 

[Tuck]

Bankroll just hit an all-time low after dumping over $4,000 in two days.
Going to be throwing in the towel once I get to 1,000 hours and show no profit. About 700 hours to go. 300 hours played so far and getting crushed.

Bankroll just hit an all-time low after dumping over $4,000 in two days.
Going to be throwing in the towel once I get to 1,000 hours and show no profit. About 700 hours to go. 300 hours played so far and getting crushed.

If you have the BR to make it to the 1,000 hour point (which by the way you're talking of losing half your BR in a couple days- I would question if you are over-betting) it would be nearly a mathematical impossibility to be down. Assuming around 100 hands/hour and decent rules/pen. Even with a modest "SCORE" game of around 80 it would be so unlikely to not show a profit after 1,000 hours; and MUCH more likely you have flaws in your game, bad pen, significantly less than 100 hands/hr. etc.

 

[xengrifter]

It's disappointing to me because people like KJ go on these epic runs right out of the gate and have long prosperous careers from BJ, but I just so happen to be one of the few people who can't make it just because of bad luck ...... When 5% RoR feels like 100%...very depressing.

Snap out of it!...
.... It's much better to not initially have an epic upswing. In the meantime, look into acquiring a valid empowered Good Fortune talisman.

PS - combine your remaining BR right now with the investor capital and play to the full 13,000... Renegotiate your deal with the investor to increase your percentage based on having a percentage capital stake in the combined BR.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

The more I think about the fact that he lost 40% of his $10,000 bank roll in (2) days...the more I think...what in the hell was he betting? What spread? I have never lost even 1/5th of my bankroll in 450 hours...but to imagine me losing $2,000 of my $5,000 bank roll in (2) days? That would be tough! How many hours were played over those two days. If 16 hours....then you would have lost $250/hr! That is some high bets me thinks!

Maybe someone was chasing money they lost? (I am guilty of doing that too before)

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Who in the world is investing $10,000 in a rookie card counter?? Your dad? That is insane! The best a $10,000 bank roll should make per hour is $16/hr! What negotiation do you have with this investor? What does he stand to make?

 

[JohnCrover]

Do you guys own CVCX?

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

no

 

[JohnCrover]

That explains a lot.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

That explains a lot.

You are the one who says you are going to play 700 more hours and not show a profit. Your words, not mine.

Then, I tell you the words of Anthony Curtis..who was on one of Wong's teams lol...and is the publisher for Colin's book and soon to take over Wong's book, about what an advantage player's stats typically look like after the VERY SIGNIFICANT 1,000 hours of play (which gets through a lot of possible variance...duh...math...simple math...hello reality.)

Then, you, as a rookie, inform us that you have an investor that is risking $10,000 on you? Even after the fact that you are down at least 60% of your first bank roll?

Bro.....bro.....bro. Bro...Seriously. Bro.

 

[JohnCrover]

 

[JohnCrover]

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

You play a double deck game and have the surrender option???

 

[JohnCrover]

The purpose of the chart is to show you that even with a good game the chances of someone winning $0, and winning $75,000 after 1,000 hours is the same. Look at the lower right cell. Two card counters could play identical games with identical strategies and have a difference of $75,000 within the first 1,000 hours, and that's not even covering the extremes. That's only 2 Standard deviations down, and 2 standard deviations up. If we were to look at 3 standard deviations it's probably possible for there to be a $100,000 difference between the two card counters playing identical strategies after that "very significant" 1,000 hours, even on a good game.

 

[JohnCrover]

hen, you, as a rookie

By the way, who says I'm a rookie? I have been studying / playing this game for 4 years.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

By the way, who says I'm a rookie? I have been studying / playing this game for 4 years.

I am at 450 hours. I am a rookie. You are at 300 hours. You are a rookie. It is not an insult. It is just where we are in the amount of career hours, that is all. When you are at 4,000 hours in your career...I promise you....you have over $100,000 of winnings...possibly even over $500,000.

 

[Winneratlosing]

Itchy well itchy well itchy well, hows bankroll numba 1 going dear ol John? Is it going belly up!? Im sure you are happy its not your money your gambling with. Has your investor considered bit coin? Or live poker? Get rdy to reload your shotgun bankroll numba 2 you will need it

 

[Winneratlosing]

i don't think our dear friend John will survive another 300hours in and he-be ready to blow through his investors 2nd bankroll
tell me John, if you lose all, do you owe any of it back?

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

i don't think our dear friend John will survive another 300hours in and he-be ready to blow through his investors 2nd bankroll
tell me John, if you lose all, do you owe any of it back?

dude, don't be an idiot. He is going to start winning, if he plays a perfect game w a perfect bet spread.