First Attack Plan of my "Career"

[SandBaggins]

Hi all,

I am 4 months into my CC'ing journey and I after 100's of hours of practicing and preparing, I would like to make sure my attack plan is sound and I have reasonable expectations of the results before playing.

Was hoping to get my risk of ruin and an avg. hourly return on the following game. I bought the CV software but only bought the pack that had CVBlackjack v5.5 Any help would be appreciated! Please let me know if my spread is way off for tackling this game too. After reading BJA3 by Schlesinger, I have this game figured about $10/hour with a 7-8% RoR. . . please critique.


Bankroll: $5000
Unit: $5
Count Method: Basic Hi/Lo using I18 and F4 deviations.
Spread:
less than +2 = 1-unit
+2 or higher = 2-unit
+3 or higher = 4-unit
+4 or higher = 6-unit
+5 or higher = 2 x 6-unit
6-deck (72% pen)
S17,DS,LS

I could see myself backcounting into shoes at +2 and wonging out at -3 if you think that would greatly affect hourly return or RoR. I have also dabbled in backcounting two tables at once but I do not want to get ahead of myself. Taking baby-steps with a baby bankroll :grin:


Thanks!

SB

 

[FLASH1296]

Even if you could find $5 tables with fair rules this level of Penetration
is poor, and you MAY win 2 units per hr. with a 12-1 spread as you stated.
If you think that you will last long spreading to 2 x 60 at T C +6 you are sadly mistaken.
You will be told that you are "too skillful" to play BJ any more, or words to that effect.
IF instead, you spread 6-1 you should break even, or at least come close to that less-than-lofty goal.
You really need to adjust your spread to something less pathetically transparent.

 

[Coyote]

I say it looks pretty good. Looks a lot like the team play from Blackjack Attack 3. You may get some scrutiney from the 2 by 6 units. If it is crowded, then you may not be able to get in that top bet. Flash is correct, that pen is not the best. Have fun you can do it!

Regards,
Coyote

 

[kewljason]

Even if you could find $5 tables with fair rules this level of Penetration
is poor, and you MAY win 2 units per hr. with a 12-1 spread as you stated.
If you think that you will last long spreading to 2 x 60 at T C +6 you are sadly mistaken.
You will be told that you are "too skillful" to play BJ any more, or words to that effect.
IF instead, you spread 6-1 you should break even, or at least come close to that less-than-lofty goal.
You really need to adjust your spread to something less pathetically transparent.

I disagree with you flash about "not lasting long with this particular spread". Max betting at TC of +5 of this particular game (6 deck, 72% pen) means he won't have the opportunity to put that max bet out very often, as high counts don't happen often in bad/average pen games. So it shouldn't draw that much heat. Unforetunately, it also means you won't get the max bet out often enough to make any real money.

I don't know where the OP is playing as to judge what kind of heat 2 x 12 units of red, would generate, but I do believe you need to ramp up earlier to compensate for the poor penetration in a game like this. At least +4, maybe even +3. That's going to bump your risk up a bit, but otherwise you just aren't going to make any reasonable return.

And yes, getting out of at least some of the negative counts is big. Again, I would get out earlier than true count of minus 3. That's just playing too many bad hands. Assuming of course that you aren't restricted by very limited tables.

 

[SandBaggins]

Even if you could find $5 tables with fair rules this level of Penetration
is poor, and you MAY win 2 units per hr. with a 12-1 spread as you stated.
If you think that you will last long spreading to 2 x 60 at T C +6 you are sadly mistaken.
You will be told that you are "too skillful" to play BJ any more, or words to that effect.
IF instead, you spread 6-1 you should break even, or at least come close to that less-than-lofty goal.
You really need to adjust your spread to something less pathetically transparent.

Appreciate the feedback Flash. One note, my top bet would be 2 x $30 and I don't think it will draw heat at this place. Also, I didn't know the pen was THAT bad. I might have to drive a little further away for better pen:cry: Thanks for the insight!

I say it looks pretty good. Looks a lot like the team play from Blackjack Attack 3. You may get some scrutiney from the 2 by 6 units. If it is crowded, then you may not be able to get in that top bet. Flash is correct, that pen is not the best. Have fun you can do it!

Regards,
Coyote

Thanks for the encouraging words! the betting scheme is right out of BA3, you are correct. This casino can get crowded at times, but I have noticed that if you lock down 3rd base at a table and bet the 2nd to last circle with the last spot empty, rarely does someone take the last betting circle. Thanks again.

I disagree with you flash about "not lasting long with this particular spread". Max betting at TC of +5 of this particular game (6 deck, 72% pen) means he won't have the opportunity to put that max bet out very often, as high counts don't happen often in bad/average pen games. So it shouldn't draw that much heat. Unforetunately, it also means you won't get the max bet out often enough to make any real money.

I don't know where the OP is playing as to judge what kind of heat 2 x 12 units of red, would generate, but I do believe you need to ramp up earlier to compensate for the poor penetration in a game like this. At least +4, maybe even +3. That's going to bump your risk up a bit, but otherwise you just aren't going to make any reasonable return.

And yes, getting out of at least some of the negative counts is big. Again, I would get out earlier than true count of minus 3. That's just playing too many bad hands. Assuming of course that you aren't restricted by very limited tables.

Sounds like the theme is BAD PEN! I might need to learn a different game then (I am from the Dallas/Ft. Worth area if someone would be kind enough to PM suggestions) I would be willing to increase my bet ramp, especially if you think I should wong out before -3 to cut out bad hands. Can you suggest a more fitting bet ramp if I were to wong out at let's say -1 or -1.5?


Thanks again everyone! Best forum on the web!

SB

 

[Freightman]

Hi all,

I am 4 months into my CC'ing journey and I after 100's of hours of practicing and preparing, I would like to make sure my attack plan is sound and I have reasonable expectations of the results before playing.

Was hoping to get my risk of ruin and an avg. hourly return on the following game. I bought the CV software but only bought the pack that had CVBlackjack v5.5 Any help would be appreciated! Please let me know if my spread is way off for tackling this game too. After reading BJA3 by Schlesinger, I have this game figured about $10/hour with a 7-8% RoR. . . please critique.


Bankroll: $5000
Unit: $5
Count Method: Basic Hi/Lo using I18 and F4 deviations.
Spread:
less than +2 = 1-unit
+2 or higher = 2-unit
+3 or higher = 4-unit
+4 or higher = 6-unit
+5 or higher = 2 x 6-unit
6-deck (72% pen)
S17,DS,LS

I could see myself backcounting into shoes at +2 and wonging out at -3 if you think that would greatly affect hourly return or RoR. I have also dabbled in backcounting two tables at once but I do not want to get ahead of myself. Taking baby-steps with a baby bankroll :grin:


Thanks!

SB

Seems to me that you have done a lot of initial prep work, which is great, as you prepare to lose your virginity. A few comments.

You've studied - now you have to season yourself. I have not simmed this, do not think you will make any money on your proposed spread. On an initial basis, that is not nearly as important as seasoning yourself, and at low cost. I get the impression that you are quite willing to do that.

You have a proposed spread similar (but still below) to what Schlesnger refers to as a spread that will keep you welcome, ESPECIALLY at red chip. You have no worries there. You will not make money, but you won't lose much either. Get comfortable with this spread. Once you are and again once your BR is more developed, consider a much deeper ramping style. You need to bet far more when your have the advantage i those +2 and +3 situations. . This will increase variance, but will also increase your EV. The next thing is to find some better games. Even with a more aggressive spread, the score on this game still promises to be pretty shitty. Each .5 deck improvement in pen will significantly iprove the score. Last butnot least - learn bs and your count system perfectly, and continue to tweak with added indexes.

 

[tthree]

Take full advantage of surrender

Hi all,

I am 4 months into my CC'ing journey and I after 100's of hours of practicing and preparing, I would like to make sure my attack plan is sound and I have reasonable expectations of the results before playing.

Was hoping to get my risk of ruin and an avg. hourly return on the following game. I bought the CV software but only bought the pack that had CVBlackjack v5.5 Any help would be appreciated! Please let me know if my spread is way off for tackling this game too. After reading BJA3 by Schlesinger, I have this game figured about $10/hour with a 7-8% RoR. . . please critique.


Bankroll: $5000
Unit: $5
Count Method: Basic Hi/Lo using I18 and F4 deviations.
Spread:
less than +2 = 1-unit
+2 or higher = 2-unit
+3 or higher = 4-unit
+4 or higher = 6-unit
+5 or higher = 2 x 6-unit
6-deck (72% pen)
S17,DS,LS

I could see myself backcounting into shoes at +2 and wonging out at -3 if you think that would greatly affect hourly return or RoR. I have also dabbled in backcounting two tables at once but I do not want to get ahead of myself. Taking baby-steps with a baby bankroll :grin:


Thanks!

SB

Learn all the surrender indices. It will bring huge returns. Only the fab 4 is costing a lot.

 

[blackjack avenger]

not bad

Wong out from -1.5 to -3 TC when a civilian would, a bad loss & depending table availability.
Wong in between positive RC to under 2 TC, depending on pit awareness
Mix it up

Learn catch 22

Be hesitant to make bets $100? That get called out.

The ramp is nice, now toss it & think more like a civilian.

 

[LIB]

I don't think heat is a concern as well. I know that it sounds passive aggressive given that I just wrote a post, but I maintain that I hesitate to offer an advice so don't take as such. For better or worse here are some things that I would do differently.

I don't play negative hands. Period. I either sit out hands or wong out, departure point being 0.25 or 0.5 depending on off the top house edge. For the most part, I just sit out. With the game you describe, I would start consider sitting out if the TC is lower than 0.75 and definitely sit out when the count is lower than 0.5. I keep my eyes out for fresh shuffles or near full discard trays at other tables though. Avoiding negative counts increase advantage, lower RoR and it also give me some "safety net" for mistakes. Even if I played error free, it's doubtful that I would play them.

If I wonged in at TC of +2 or higher as you mention, I would just play 2H always. As Coyote mentioned I might not be able to get the max bet out, and I don't like that. The table configuration matters too. When civilians take every other sit for instance, I ask one of them to move over so that I can play 2 hands. This, I tend to think that I can do it when I get to the table easier than when the count gets higher. Another concern is somebody wanting to sit down at my adjacent betting square. Considering the granularity of the spread you mention, I would think that big chunk of EV comes from the 2x6unit max bet. Personally, either of the situations are too much for me give up even when it were just every now and then.

I disagree with KJ in putting the max bet out at +4 or +3 though considering that you expect your RoR to be 7-8%. Then again, that's just me.

Lastly, I would learn more indices. Playing them could be hard but memorizing them really isn't.

For what it's worth, there are ways to make seats at either end of the table physically non-accessible or unattractive. I'm really not talking about drastic measures by the way. Also, considering your max bet, I would buy in for $200 so that I have some green chips on me. Any more just makes me less mobile and I might get more nagging about coloring up because I probably will have more chips, which will have to be broken down when I wong into another shoe. It's just a nuance and slows the game down.

One question though, and you don't have to answer me. Is your RoR figure considering expenses? I never tip, but some people do (which is not to say you do). Have you accounted for those?

 

[Traveller]

sandbaggins

Ran a sim for you and with that spread and pen you will do well to win 1$ per hour on the game you mention and that is with LS v Ace as well. Although your risk of ruin is negligable.

If you wong out at -1 you will make 3$ per hour.
If you ramp your bets up sooner to 10$ at +1, 20$ at +2 and 2 x 30$ at +3 and still wonging out your return will be around 6$ per hour.
If you bet larger at those counts 20, 40 and 2 x 60 you will win 13$ per hour but now you ROR comes into play, albeit sleight. There will be a 12.5% chance of you going up 5k in 100 hrs (10000 rounds) but not necessarily finishing up that ammount and a 0.3% chance of going down 5k in that time.

This is just for this straight up counting and betting with LS v Ace which you don't make clear you do or do not have. Any betting variances for camourflage like other posters mention would be good and would affect these numbers.

It's been a while since your original post, how are you getting on?

T.

 

[SandBaggins]

Ran a sim for you and with that spread and pen you will do well to win 1$ per hour on the game you mention and that is with LS v Ace as well. Although your risk of ruin is negligable.

If you wong out at -1 you will make 3$ per hour.
If you ramp your bets up sooner to 10$ at +1, 20$ at +2 and 2 x 30$ at +3 and still wonging out your return will be around 6$ per hour.
If you bet larger at those counts 20, 40 and 2 x 60 you will win 13$ per hour but now you ROR comes into play, albeit sleight. There will be a 12.5% chance of you going up 5k in 100 hrs (10000 rounds) but not necessarily finishing up that ammount and a 0.3% chance of going down 5k in that time.

This is just for this straight up counting and betting with LS v Ace which you don't make clear you do or do not have. Any betting variances for camourflage like other posters mention would be good and would affect these numbers.

It's been a while since your original post, how are you getting on?

T.

I haven't played a hand since my original post bc I have been trying to find a better game. I've been reading more and more how game selection is the most important thing.

The analogy of two lumberjacks cutting wood is a good parallel. First lumberjack cuts wood all day non-stop while the second one takes several breaks. The second lumberjack ends up cutting more wood because during his breaks he was sharpening his ax... I need to sharpen my ax ( find a better game! )

Appreciate all the help guys!

SB