Mikeaber
Well-Known Member
All I can reply with is that you have spent (assumedly) a whole lot of time learning advantage play. If you have the bankroll with you, it just doesn't make sense to leave a table when the odds are in your favor. You are not playing on "luck", you are playing on percentages and probabilities. If the deck's count is favorable to you, it just doesn't "compute" to walk away from it because you've lost a few hands. It happens. I mean, a positive count is not a guarantee that you're going to win. However, that is what you've been counting and hoping for!
Now, if your BR has "gone south" and you don't have enough to play, that's a different story. Or if you've reach a time limit which you've arbitrarily set to avoid notice from the pit, then I'd be all for leaving after the conditions changed (either count goes negative or you end the shoe.)
It happened to me on my last trip. I had played 6 or 7 shoes on a very low limit table. Basically, it was a practice session for me. No heat. I had done pretty well and was ahead 12 or 13 units. Then we started a shoe with just me and one other guy left at the table. In the first 3 or 4 hands, the count went from the IRC of -20 to a -32. We hadn't even reached 1 deck in play on a 6-deck game. It was about time for me to leave and that seemed a good time to get out of Dodge. I colored up and the other guy did the same after three or four more hands. He was losing everything he bet. I kept count and when he finally left (after losing his stack) it was at -24. At this casino, the table just freezes...no reshuffle. Eventually, a couple of avid morons sat down and lost 8 or 9 hands to the dealer and left. There were only three decks in play at that time and the count was still -13. A "regular" came in and went heads up against the dealer with maximum bets out ($25). He went through $200 in almost straight hands. It was unbelievable. If he had a 20, the dealer would either push or draw out on him! However, as he went through that $200, the count finally climbed to -2 and then on up to +7. I watched 3 hands in a row where he drew a 13 or 14 on the first two cards and the dealer had a pair of faces. Still he was losing almost every hand. I wanted so bad to jump in but my wife was pulling on my sleeve to leave by that time. Point is, he was losing just as much with the high count as with the low count. Of course, had he known what I knew, he wouldn't have jumpped in with those kinds of bets when he did. But, I'd have loved to have bought more chips and pounded that +7 count! The advantage was his, but it just wasn't working. It happens and you have to be ready for it and determine how you are going to deal with it. Leave? Maybe. Get mad. Probably. Accept it? You have to! It's part of what we do.
Now, if your BR has "gone south" and you don't have enough to play, that's a different story. Or if you've reach a time limit which you've arbitrarily set to avoid notice from the pit, then I'd be all for leaving after the conditions changed (either count goes negative or you end the shoe.)
It happened to me on my last trip. I had played 6 or 7 shoes on a very low limit table. Basically, it was a practice session for me. No heat. I had done pretty well and was ahead 12 or 13 units. Then we started a shoe with just me and one other guy left at the table. In the first 3 or 4 hands, the count went from the IRC of -20 to a -32. We hadn't even reached 1 deck in play on a 6-deck game. It was about time for me to leave and that seemed a good time to get out of Dodge. I colored up and the other guy did the same after three or four more hands. He was losing everything he bet. I kept count and when he finally left (after losing his stack) it was at -24. At this casino, the table just freezes...no reshuffle. Eventually, a couple of avid morons sat down and lost 8 or 9 hands to the dealer and left. There were only three decks in play at that time and the count was still -13. A "regular" came in and went heads up against the dealer with maximum bets out ($25). He went through $200 in almost straight hands. It was unbelievable. If he had a 20, the dealer would either push or draw out on him! However, as he went through that $200, the count finally climbed to -2 and then on up to +7. I watched 3 hands in a row where he drew a 13 or 14 on the first two cards and the dealer had a pair of faces. Still he was losing almost every hand. I wanted so bad to jump in but my wife was pulling on my sleeve to leave by that time. Point is, he was losing just as much with the high count as with the low count. Of course, had he known what I knew, he wouldn't have jumpped in with those kinds of bets when he did. But, I'd have loved to have bought more chips and pounded that +7 count! The advantage was his, but it just wasn't working. It happens and you have to be ready for it and determine how you are going to deal with it. Leave? Maybe. Get mad. Probably. Accept it? You have to! It's part of what we do.
and I do that for 3 years now relativly successful.
